Jim
Albright /
the
japanese insider

The Excellence Plus points system I created works well for evaluating the Japanese Hall of Fame credentials of all players except pitchers who pitched a substantial part of their careers from 1970 onward. The problem lies in dealing with 1) releif aces, and 2) the far lower innings pitched totals for starters. The Excellence Plus bonus points for the best three years and the best five consecutive years don't give nearly as much of a boost to more modern pitchers compared to every other category of player. That leaves me with the choices of: 1) finding another benchmark to use for modern pitchers which complements the Excellence Plus points system, 2) finding a whole other rating system without this problem, or 3) ignore the problem and go with the conclusion that extraordinarily few pitchers from 1970 on deserve to be in Japan's Hall of Fame. The last option is not acceptable to me, which leaves the first two. Given the work I've
put into this effort, the second one isn't attractive. That leaves finding another benchmark
for modern pitchers which complements the Excellence Plus points system. Fortunately, I think
I've found such a benchmark--simply using career estimated Win Shares plus award points for
these guys. It uses everything Excellence Plus does
I'll test this approach with: 1) those Japanese Hall of Fame pitchers less WWII casualties
Sawamura and Nishimura as well as Motoshi Fujita, who I believe earned his honor via
managing. It will help to look at the "probably in" and "probably out" categories as continuums in which players scoring near the top of the "probably in" category are close to shoo-ins. those scoring at the midpoints as 50-50 shots at getting the honor, and those scoring near the bottom of the "probably out" range as having a low chance of receiving the honor. The probability of being honored should slide evenly throughout the point ranges in question. Of course, there may be reasons to exclude guys who score well and induct some who score poorly (see Noburu Akiyama for an example of the latter, though I will make clear my thoughts on his induction in the comment covering his case). My rule of thumb is that the closer a player gets to the outer edges of the in-out continuum, the more evidence should be required to overrule what the rating system is telling us. I'll list the pitchers who are seen as shoo-ins by The remaining pitchers should be looked at for one or both of the following reasons: Yutaka Enatsu:
over 200 EWS plus points, 447 Excellence Plus points Hisashi Yamaada:
over 200 EWS plus points, 443 Excellence Plus points Ryohei Hasegawa:
over 200 EWS plus points, 433 Excellence Plus points Minoru Murayama:
over 200 EWS plus points, 430 Excellence Plus points Tadashi Sugiura:
over 200 EWS plus points, 427 Excellence Plus points Keishi Suzuki:
over 200 EWS plus points, 410 Excellence Plus points Tetsuya Yoneda:
over 200 EWS plus points, 414 Excellence Plus points Mitsuo Minagawa:
over 200 EWS plus points, 393 Excellence Plus points Yutaka Ono:
199 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Teruzo Nakao:
198 EWS plus points, 374 Excellence Plus points Mitsuhiro Adachi:
195 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Atsushi Aramaki:
191 EWS plus points, 371 Excellence Plus points Takao Kajimoto:
191 EWS plus points, 399 Excellence Plus points Osamu Higashio:
183 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Tokuji Kawasaki:
182 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Choji Murata:
180 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Masaki Saito:
180 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Kazuhiro Sasaki:
175 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Tsuneo Horiuchi:
173 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Juzo Sanada:
172 EWS plus points, 413 Excellence Plus points Hideo Nomo:
172 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Kimiyasu Kudo:
167 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Hiromu Matsuoka:
162 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Masaji Hiramatsu:
162 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Noburu Akiyama:
162 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Yoshitaka Katori:
156 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Shoichi Ono:
155 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Akio Saito:
154 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Fumio Narita:
153 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points Takumi Otomo:
under 150 EWS plus points, 360 Excellence Plus points Neither system regards any other pitcher as a viable candidate, and I can't think of anyone who I seriously disagree with that assessment for. I didn't check out the career EWS plus for position players, primarily because I came up with Excellence Plus after starting with EWS plus because I felt EWS plus didn't work well for players with shorter productive periods in their careers, like Nakanishi or gaijin. Overall. for pitchers before 1970, Excellence Plus evaluates them better than EWS plus,
but it's close. When it comes to pitchers from 1970 on, EWS plus is far better than
Excellence plus is. I preferred EWS plus strongly for nine post 1970 pitchers, leaned toward
it twice more for such pitchers, see one such pitcher as a tie between the systems, and leaned
against it four times for such pitchers. Furthermore, in all of the cases in which I leaned
against EWS plus for post 1970 pitchers, EWS called the JHOF cases weak while Excellence Plus
was less generous. Therefore, EWS plus definitely does what I wanted it to do, and does it
well. Now we have all the pieces of the puzzle to evaluate the JHOF qualifications of |