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Fun With the Oh Projections

 

            As I said in the main articles describing the case for Sadaharu Oh for the Hall of Fame Part One and Part Two, I had to work out Oh’s career data on a season-by-season basis in order to deal with the playing time issues I felt were an essential element in obtaining the most accurate estimate possible. This season by season data is around the level of estimates of estimates, and therefore I didn’t want to include it in the articles detailing the formal examination of the evidence regarding Oh’s worthiness for the HOF.               

            However, I feel the data is interesting, and also that it is likely (though by no means certain) that in Oh’s projected career of 19 seasons that any variations in the data should even out.  Thus, if Oh no longer projects to hit .300 in one season, he’d pick up the hits in another and hit .300 in that season.  If Oh no longer projects to be in the top 5 in HR in a certain season, he’d get those HR in another season, which would likely push him up to that top 5 level.  If we were talking about 19,000 seasons, those things would certainly happen, but in a sample as small as 19, well, chance has a lot better opportunity to screw things up.

            Here’s the season by season projection:

 

YEAR

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

TB

RBI

K

BB

AVG

OBP

SLG

1959

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1960

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1961

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1962

162

601

84

148

28

5

24

258

80

122

72

0.246

0.326

0.430

1963

162

553

114

153

30

12

24

279

95

75

123

0.276

0.408

0.504

1964

162

546

113

158

23

0

33

280

107

95

119

0.289

0.416

0.513

1965

156

495

106

144

19

3

25

244

94

68

138

0.291

0.446

0.493

1966

156

479

119

134

15

3

30

245

109

63

142

0.281

0.445

0.512

1967

161

515

100

152

21

8

30

279

102

80

130

0.295

0.437

0.542

1968

158

534

114

157

28

0

31

278

112

89

121

0.295

0.425

0.521

1969

162

563

123

176

24

0

29

287

100

77

111

0.312

0.425

0.510

1970

161

530

107

155

24

0

31

272

90

61

119

0.294

0.423

0.514

1971

162

541

101

135

21

5

25

241

98

82

121

0.250

0.387

0.446

1972

155

544

110

145

19

0

30

254

111

52

108

0.268

0.389

0.468

1973

162

533

122

171

20

0

33

290

111

52

124

0.321

0.449

0.544

1974

162

480

116

144

19

0

32

259

104

56

158

0.301

0.474

0.539

1975

159

490

85

126

13

0

22

205

93

79

123

0.258

0.407

0.419

1976

152

498

109

146

11

3

32

259

119

57

125

0.294

0.435

0.520

1977

162

538

126

158

14

0

33

271

120

47

126

0.293

0.427

0.503

1978

162

548

100

149

22

0

25

246

114

54

114

0.271

0.397

0.449

1979

150

507

80

131

14

0

22

211

79

61

89

0.258

0.368

0.416

1980

129

444

52

95

7

0

16

150

65

48

72

0.214

0.323

0.338

Totals

2995

9939

1982

2778

372

39

527

4809

1903

1318

2235

0.279

0.412

0.484

 

 

            A few highlights:  Oh is projected to hit .300 or more in 3 seasons, have an on base percentage of .400 or more in 13 seasons, have a slugging percentage of .500 or more in 11 seasons, to hit 30 or more homers in 10 seasons, to have 100 or more RBI in 11 seasons, and to score 100 or more runs in 15 seasons.  Once again, these are HOF-quality numbers.

            Rather than looking how often Oh would have met certain benchmarks, let’s look at how he does in terms of being a league leader (Note that an asterisk [*] means not calculated):

  National  League             American  League   
Category Led Top 5 Top 10   Led Top 5 Top 10
Total Bases 0 0 *   0 4 *
Average 0 1 3   0 3 7
On Base Percentage 8 13 *   6 15 *
Slugging Percentage  0 5 8   2 7 12
Homers 0 7 11   3 8 12
Doubles 0 0 2   0 0 2
Hits 0 0 1   0 0 3
Walks 9 16 18   13 16 17


That sure looks like a HOF performance without using any more formal metrics on it.  However, there are more formal metrics which can be brought to bear on such data, and they can be found at baseballreference.com.  Those two metrics are Black Ink and Gray Ink.  Black Ink is restricted to league leaderships, while Gray Ink awards points for finishing in the top 10.  The points awarded in each case are the same:  4 for average, RBI, and HR; 3 for hits, runs scored, and slugging percentage; 2 for steals, walks and doubles; and 1 for at bats, triples, and games, though in this last category I only gave Oh credit if he projected to play 162 games.

            Oh projects to get 43 Black Ink points as a National Leaguer, an 92 as an American Leaguer.  The highest total of a player eligible for the HOF but not in is Ross Barnes at 59.  There are only two others over 43 points and not in the Hall, Harry Stovey at 56 and Gavvy Cravath at 46.  Stovey and Barnes are 19th century players, and Cravath got an enormous boost in this category by hitting almost all of his homers in the Baker Bowl.  In the range of 35-50 Black Ink points, there are 18 players, and 14 are in the Hall.  Other than Cravath, the other three not in the HOF all finished behind Oh’s projected minimum of 43 (Tony Oliva 41, Sherry Magee 35, and Tip O’Neill 35). The source of these black ink scores for other players is baseballreference.com, and they indicate an average HOFer has about 27 Black Ink points. It’s safe to say that 43 Black Ink points is a HOF-level achievement.  In Gray Ink, Oh projects to score 274 points as an American Leaguer, and 225 as a National Leaguer.  The highest score by an eligible player not in the HOF is Bert Blyleven at 239 points.  In the range of 210 to 240 Gray Ink points, there again are 18 eligible players, and 14 of them in the Hall.  Only Blyleven is over 225, the rest being Jim McCormick at 220, and Sherry Magee and Harry Stovey both at 210.  Baseballreference.com again is the source of these comparisons, and they say an average Hall of Famer has 144 Gray ink points.  Once again, Oh projects to have a HOF-type record.

            We can also use Bill James HOF Monitor system on Oh’s projected stats.  I know the system is designed for use with active players, but even James has used it for retired players.  Even if we give Oh no credit for being an all-star or being on championship teams, he scores 156.5 points as a National Leaguer, and 191.5 as an American Leaguer.  Either mark is in the class of players who are shoo-ins for the HOF.

            Maybe none of these uses of the projection are valid, but they are fun, and they certainly don’t contradict the verdict of the formal examination of Oh’s worthiness for a plaque in Cooperstown.

 

 

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