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Comparing Oh to Top Outfield and First Base HOF Candidates

In my analysis of Sadaharu Oh’s qualifications for the Hall of Fame, I referred to Bill James’ Keltner list and noted it asked if the player under consideration was the very best player not in the Hall or was the very best at his position not in the Hall.  I looked at the 3000 hit guys at all positions to answer the first question, and consulted Win Shares, Total Baseball, and James’ last two Historical Abstracts to determine who the best candidates among the first basemen were.  I did not in either case formally compare the records of these players to Oh, though anyone reading the analysis could have easily done so.  I’ve thought about that, and have come up with another way to determine the best candidates, and will formally compare those candidates to the projected totals I have arrived at for Oh.

The method I will use to determine the strongest candidates for the HOF is to take all those outfielders and first basemen who have finished in the top 10 of the writers votes for the Hall but are not yet enshrined.  I am limiting the field to outfielders and first basemen because that’s the group which faces the same offensive expectations as Oh does, since he played first.  The other positions have significantly different offensive expectations because of the greater defensive demands of those positions, and are misleading to compare to outfielders and first basemen without incorporating defense into the discussion.  Since I lack the defensive data to do so for Oh, I can’t do that with any reasonable degree of accuracy.

The list of the top ten finishers among outfielders and first basemen yields most if not all of the “hot” candidates under consideration by the writers and the Veteran’s Committee who are not in their first time on the writer’s ballots at those positions.  There are eleven such players, and listed alphabetically, they are:  Dick Allen, Phil Cavaretta, Andre Dawson, Steve Garvey, Gil Hodges, Roger Maris, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Tony Oliva, Dave Parker, and Jim Rice.  Phil Cavaretta is the only one I’d call a surprise, and frankly, I’d be very surprised if none of these eleven players ever makes the Hall.

When we compare the Oh projection found here    to these players, Oh beats all eleven of them in games, at  bats, hits, homers, walks, on base percentage, runs created, runs created per game, and secondary average.   He’s second in OPS to only Dick Allen, second by a mere 8 total bases to Andre Dawson and is a solid 4th in slugging percentage.  One of the remaining categories is triples and that category is not of any real significance in evaluating any of these players.  Other than that, he’s 6th in doubles and tied for 8th in average.  None of the other “hot candidates” come close to being as dominant in this group of quality players.  There can be no reasonable argument that Oh is anything but the very best among this group.

The spreadsheet detailing the above analysis appears below:
Player Name G AB H 2B 3B HR TB BB AVG OBP Slg sec avg  ops RC RC/G
Dick Allen  1749  6332  1848  320  79  351  3379   894  .292  .379  .534  .404 .913  1236  7.03 
Phil Cavaretta   2030  6754  1977  347  99  95  2807  820  .293  .369  .416  .254 .785  1010 5.39 
Andre Dawson 2627  9927  2774  503  98  438  4817  589  .279  .320  .482  .294 .802  1499 5.34 
Steve Garvey 2331  8835  2599  440  43  272  3941  479  .294  .330  .446  .216 .777  1220 4.99 
Gil Hodges 2071  7030  1921  295  48  370  3422  943  .273  .359  .487  .357 .846  1203 6.01 
Roger Maris 1493  5101  1325  195  42  275  2429  652  .260  .344  .476  .348 .820  824 5.56 
Dave Mattingly 1785  7003  2153  442  20  222  3301  588  .307  .361  .471  .250 .832  1106 5.82 
Dale Murphy 2180  7960  2111  350  39  398  3733  986  .265  .346  .469  .348 .815  1289 5.62 
Tony Oliva 1676  6301  1917  329  48  220  3022  448  .304  .350  .476  .257  .827  988 5.74 
Dave Parker 2466  9358  2712  526  75  339  4330  683  .290  .338  .471  .270 .809  1422 5.46 
Jim Rice 2089  8225  2452  373  79  382  4129  670  .298  .351  .502  .292 .853  1380 6.01 
Oh Projection 2995  9939  2778  372  39  527  4809  2235  .279  .412  .484  .438 .896  1996 7.11 
Oh Place 1st  1st  1st  6th  10th(tie)  1st  2nd  1st  8th(tie)  1st  4th   1st 2nd  1st 1st 


RC= ((BB + TB) * 0.32) + ( 0.26 * H) + (0.16 * SB) – (0.10 * AB)

RC/g is based on 25.5 outs

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