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Baseball Analysis  Michael Hoban, Ph.D

Part 2 - The Players
3000 Hits – All Have Hall of Fame Numbers
500 Home Runs – Sammy Sosa, Odd Man Out
300 Win Shares - The New “Rule of Thumb”
“All In” – Starting Pitchers and the Hall of Fame
The 21st Century Hall of Famers
The 2015 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot


“All In” - Starting Pitchers and the Hall of Fame

Michael Hoban, Ph.D.


With the induction of Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez into the Hall of Fame in 2015, every starting pitcher in the second half of the 20th century who posted HOF numbers and has been eligible is now in Cooperstown (with the exception of Roger Clemens).

Let me be a bit more precise.  According to the CAWS CAREER GAUGE, every starting pitcher (except Clemens) whose career began after World War II and who posted HOF numbers during his career and has been eligible has been elected to the Hall of Fame. 

There are a total of nineteen (19) starting pitchers in this time-frame who have posted HOF numbers during their careers.  Seventeen are now in the Hall of Fame (Roy Halladay is not yet eligible). 

 

According to the CCG, a starting pitcher has Hall of Fame numbers if he satisfies one of the following criteria:

1.      He has a CAWS score of 235 or

2.      He has 300 career win shares or

3.      He attained a CAWS score of 180 in fewer than 2400 innings. 

(I do not include here those pitchers such as Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm and Goose Gossage who are usually viewed as relievers.)

 

Here are the starting pitchers who careers began after World War II who satisfy one (or more) of these criteria.  There have been nineteen (19) such pitchers and all have been elected to the Hall (with the exception of Clemens and Halladay).  

 

The Post-WWII Starting Pitchers who have Hall of Fame Numbers – Who are in the Hall

 

All numbers include the 2014 season.

Bold  =  Hall of Famer

CWS  =  Career Win Shares

CV      =  Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)

CAWS  =  Career Value  =  CV  +  .25(CWS – CV)

 

 

 

                                                                       CWS                CV               CAWS

 

Tom Seaver                (1967-1986)                388                  255                  288

Greg Maddux            (1986-2008)                398                  246                  284

Gaylord Perry           (1962-1983)                369                  243                  275

Bob Gibson                (1959-1975)                317                  258                  273

Steve Carlton             (1965-1988)                366                  240                  272

Phil Niekro                 (1964-1987)                374                  235                  270

Robin Roberts           (1948-1966)                339                  246                  269

Jim Palmer                 (1965-1984)                312                  252                  267

Fergie Jenkins           (1965-1983)                323                  233                  256

Randy Johnson         (1988-2009)                326                  230                  254

Bert Blyleven             (1970-1992)                339                  218                  248

Juan Marichal           (1960-1975)                263                  229                  238

Tom Glavine              (1987-2008)                314                  203                  231                 

Nolan Ryan                (1966-1993)                334                  191                  227

Don Sutton                 (1966-1988)                319                  187                  220

Pedro Martinez         (1992-2009)                224                  200                  206

Sandy Koufax           (1955-1966)                194                  190                  191     

 

As you can see, Tom Glavine, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Pedro Martinez  and Sandy Koufax each fell short of the CAWS benchmark of 235 but qualified under another of the three benchmarks.

 

Here are a few other starting pitchers from this period who are in the Hall of Fame but who do NOT have obvious HOF numbers according to the CCG.

 

                                                                        CWS               CV               CAWS

 

Jim Bunning              (1955-1971)                257                  221                  230

Don Drysdale             (1956-1969)                258                  221                  230

Whitey Ford              (1950-1967)                261                  202                  217

John Smoltz               (1988-2009)                289                  185                  211

Catfish Hunter          (1965-1979)                206                  184                  190

                       

In addition to the seventeen starting pitchers above who are already in Cooperstown, there are only two others from this period who did post HOF numbers during their careers - but who are not yet the Hall of Fame.  Here they are.

The Two Starting Pitchers with HOF Numbers – Not Yet in the Hall

                                                                        CWS               CV               CAWS 

Roger Clemens            (1984-2007)                432                  260                  303

Roy Halladay              (1998-2013)                226                  199                  206

Like Sandy Koufax and Pedro Martinez, Roy Halladay satisfied (after thirteen seasons) the CAWS benchmark of a score of 180 or better with fewer than 2400 innings pitched.  Only a handful of 20th century pitchers have accomplished this.  And all who have been eligible are in Cooperstown.
 

For those of you who are inclined to ask “What about so and so?” I am listing here a number of outstanding retired starting pitchers from this period who fell short of posting HOF numbers according to the strict benchmarks of the CAWS Career Gauge.

Some Good Starting Pitchers Who Do NOT Have Hall of Fame Numbers

 

                                                                        CWS               CV               CAWS

 

Luis Tiant                    (1964-1982)                256                  198                  213

Mike Mussina              (1991-2008)                270                  186                  207

Billy Pierce                  (1948-1964)                248                  193                  207

Curt Schilling              (1988-2007)                252                  191                  206

Kevin Brown              (1986-2005)                241                  193                  205

Jim Kaat                      (1959-1983)                268                  181                  203

Tommy John               (1963-1989)                289                  165                  196

Jerry Koosman            (1967-1985)                240                  181                  196

Mickey Lolich             (1963-1979)                224                  179                  190

Jack Morris                  (1977-1994)                225                  172                  185

Vida Blue                    (1969-1986)                202                  178                  184

David Cone                 (1986-2003)                205                  173                  181

Orel Hershiser             (1983-2000)                210                  171                  181

Jamie Moyer                (1986-2010)                224                  149                  168

Andy Petitte               (1995-2010)                206                  149                  163

David Wells                (1987-2007)                    211                   147                   163

 

Note that Luis Tiant posted the best numbers of this group. 



Michael Hoban, Ph.D is Professor Emeritus of mathematics at the City University of N.Y.  He has been an avid baseball fan for over 60 years and has become a serious baseball analyst, since joining SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) in 1998.  He is the author of five baseball books including:  DEFINING GREATNESS: A Hall of Fame Handbook (Booklocker, 2012)   BASEBALL'S COMPLETE PLAYERS (McFarland: 2000) and FIELDER'S CHOICE (Booklocker: 2003). 

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