2007
Hall of Fame Ballot
Who Really Has HOF
Numbers?
Michael
Hoban, Ph.D.
Who belongs in the
Hall of Fame? According to the
guidelines set forth for the BBWAA election process,
“Voting shall be based upon the
player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and
contributions to the team(s) on which the player
played.” It is obvious
from this statement that a voter may consider accomplishments other than
those on the field of play. But
it is also fair to say that a player’s on-field performance is generally
regarded as the most important consideration for induction into baseball’s
ultimate shrine.
In this paper, I
will point out which players on the 2007 BBWAA ballot definitely have the
performance numbers to be inducted into the Hall of
Fame. I will let others make
the argument as to why some players who may not have the numbers should be
honored.
The NEWS HOF Monitor
is based on Bill James’ Win Shares system and it tells us which players
had the best careers and deserve a spot in the
Hall. For details about the
NEWS monitor, please read the article entitled
The Good NEWS – A HOF Monitor
on this site (and the other NEWS articles).
In those articles,
I have established which players who played the bulk of their careers in
the 20th century have HOF
numbers. The NEWS monitor creates
a balance between a player’s career win shares (CWS) and his core value
(CV – the sum of the win shares for his ten best seasons) and produces
a career value called the NEWS (Non-traditional evaluative Win
Shares). The NEWS score tells
us whether a player has the numbers worthy of election to the Hall of
Fame. Perhaps more importantly,
it tells us which players helped their
teams the most during their
careers.
Obviously, there
are different criteria for position players and for
pitchers. I will use the results
of the BBWAA HOF balloting for last ten years to illustrate how the NEWS
monitor works.
The Players Inducted into
the Hall of Fame over the Past Ten Years
Since 1997, sixteen former major league players have been inducted
into the Hall by the baseball writers
(BBWAA). Of these, twelve have
been position players and four have been
pitchers.
2006
- Bruce
Sutter
2005
- Wade
Boggs and Ryne Sandberg
2004
- Paul
Molitor
2003
- Eddie
Murray and Gary Carter
2002
- Ozzie
Smith
2001
- Dave
Winfield and Kirby Puckett
2000
- Carlton
Fisk and Tony Perez
1999
- Nolan
Ryan, George Brett and Robin Yount
1998
- Don
Sutton
1997
- Phil
Niekro
According to the NEWS HOF Monitor, all four of
the pitchers have HOF numbers. Of
the twelve position players, nine have the numbers and three do
not.
The Position
Players
Here are the twelve position players and their
scores. The number preceding
the player’s name is his rank compared to all position players since
1900 (so, George Brett is the #29 ranked position
player). CWS is career win shares, CV is a player’s core value
(the sum of the win shares for his ten best seasons) and NEWS is his career
value.
NEWS
=
CV
+
.15CWS
CWS
CV
NEWS
29. George
Brett
432
296
361
35. Wade
Boggs
394
291
350
40.
Robin
Yount
423
278
341
56. Paul
Molitor
414
270
332
59. Ryne
Sandberg
346
278
330
69. Dave
Winfield
415
259
321
80. Gary
Carter
337
263
314
101. Tony
Perez
349
249
301
117. Carlton
Fisk
368
240
295
129. Kirby
Puckett
281
247
289
158. Ozzie
Smith
325
226
275
The top eight players (from Brett to Carter) each has a NEWS score
better than 310 and has clear HOF
numbers. Only 85 major league
position players since 1900 have achieved a NEWS score of 310 – and
these eight players are in that group.
Of these 85 players, 59 are in the Hall of Fame and 10 were still
active in 2006. Three others
are on the ballot for 2007: Cal Ripken, Mark McGwire and Tony
Gwynn.
The other player on the list who has HOF numbers is Kirby
Puckett. He falls into a special
(and very small) category of retired players who had
short and great
careers. That is, he had
a NEWS score better than 285 with fewer than 1800 games
played. I have found only six
other players who had a NEWS score between 285 and 310 with less than 1800
games played. And every one of them is in the Hall of Fame: Jackie Robinson,
Hank Greenberg, Larry Doby, Lou Boudreau, Mickey Cochrane and Bill
Terry.
As you can see, Tony Perez, Carlton Fisk and Ozzie Smith did not achieve
the 310 NEWS benchmark. It is
quite possible that all three should be in the Hall for reasons other than
their numbers. Ozzie is generally
considered to be the best fielding shortstop of all time and I certainly
think that the best fielding shortstop should be in the
Hall. And I am sure that others
could make arguments for Perez and Fisk.
All I am saying is that they do not have HOF numbers according to
the NEWS monitor.
The
Pitchers
Here are the four pitchers and their
scores. All four have HOF numbers.
CWS
CV
NEWS
20. Phil
Niekro
374
235
291
51. Nolan
Ryan
334
191
241
56. Don
Sutton
319
187
235
Since 1900, only 44 pitchers have achieved a NEWS score of
250. 34 of them are in the Hall
of Fame and three are still active (Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux and Randy
Johnson). Of course, they have
clear HOF numbers. Phil Niekro
is #20 on this list of the most effective starting
pitchers.
Neither Nolan Ryan nor Don Sutton made the 250
benchmark. However, they too
have HOF numbers for a pitcher.
Any pitcher who achieves 300 career win shares deserves this
honor. There are only two pitchers
since 1900 who have achieved 300 CWS and are not yet in the Hall of
Fame. One is Bert Blyleven who
is on the 2007 ballot and the other is Tom Glavine who was still active in
2006. (Blyleven also has a NEWS
of 269 - see below.)
Bruce Sutter, of course, was a relief pitcher and has to be judged
somewhat differently from a starting
pitcher. The NEWS test for a
relief pitcher is as follows: if a relief pitcher has a NEWS score of 170
with less than1800 innings pitched, then he has HOF numbers and deserves
serious consideration for the Hall.
Lest any one think that this criterion is easy to attain, let me say
that I have found only five relievers who have done
this. Two are in the Hall: Rollie
Fingers and Bruce Sutter. And
three are not there yet: Mariano Rivera, Lee Smith and Dan
Quisenberry.
As you will see below, the NEWS monitor has a different test for relief
pitchers who were not “pure” relievers but were starters for a
part of their careers. Hoyt
Wilhelm and Goose Gossage are examples of such pitchers.
The 2007 BBWAA Hall of Fame
Ballot
The 2007 BBWAA HOF ballot has the names of 32 players on
it. Of these, 24 were position
players and 8 were pitchers.
According to the NEWS HOF Monitor, only three of the position players
have HOF numbers and three of the
pitchers. Here are those
players.
The Position
Players
Only three position players on the 2007 ballot have HOF
numbers. Here they
are.
CWS
CV
NEWS
41. Cal Ripken
Jr
427
276
340
51. Mark
McGwire
342
283
334
60. Tony
Gwynn
398
269
329
Cal Ripken, Mark McGwire and Tony Gwynn are among the top 60 position
players since 1900. That each
has HOF numbers should be a no-brainer.
That three such position players should be on the ballot for the first
time together would appear to be a rare event in recent
years. How the question of McGwire’s possible steroid use
will impact the vote remains to be seen.
Here are the position players who are still on the ballot and had the
highest percentage of votes in 2006 but were not
elected. As you can see, none
of these players reached the NEWS benchmark of 310 for HOF
numbers.
CWS
CV
NEWS
Dave
Parker
327
248
297
Alan
Trammell
318
238
286
Andre
Dawson
340
234
285
Don
Mattingly
263
241
280
Jim
Rice
282
233
275
Albert
Belle
243
237
273
Steve
Garvey
279
215
257
Dave
Concepcion
269
205
245
Should any of these players be elected to the Hall of
Fame? That is a matter of
opinion. But I feel comfortable
in saying that none of them has HOF numbers.
The
Pitchers
Only three pitchers on the ballot have HOF
numbers. Here they
are.
CWS
CV
NEWS
28. Bert
Blyleven
339
218
269
Goose
Gossage
223
173
206
Bert
Blyleven
is the #28 most effective starting pitcher in the major leagues since 1900
and one of only 44 starting pitchers with a NEWS score greater than
250. As you can see, his NEWS
score puts him ahead of both Nolan Ryan and Don Sutton mentioned above –
and also ahead of such Hall of Famers as Juan Marichal, Early Wynn and Jim
Bunning. Why Blyleven has not
already been elected to the Hall is puzzling.
Goose
Gossage
does not have a NEWS score of 250 or
better. That is primarily because
he was a reliever and not a starter for most of his
career. However, he was a starter
for a while and therefore pitched more innings than a typical
reliever. So, he does not fit
the profile of the “pure
relievers.” That is why
the NEWS monitor has another test for pitchers called the 2400/200
test.
There have been a few starting pitchers in history who had short and
careers but, for one reason or another, pitched fewer than 2400
innings. Yet they were able
to achieve a NEWS score of 200
nevertheless. And there have
been at least a couple of starter/relievers who had long careers and have
done the same. I have only found
four starting pitchers who have done this – Addie Joss, Sandy Koufax
and Dizzy Dean (who are in the Hall of Fame) and Don Newcombe who is on the
2007 ballot for the Veteran’s
Committee. And I have found
only two starter/relievers who have done it – Hoyt Wilhelm who is in
the Hall and Goose Gossage who should be there also.
As mentioned above when discussing Bruce Sutter,
Lee Smith is one of only
five relievers that I have found
who have attained the benchmark of 170 NEWS with less than 1800 innings pitched
for their careers. Sutter and
Rollie Fingers are in the Hall while Mariano Rivera, Lee Smith and Dan
Quisenberry are not there yet.
Mariano Rivera 882 175 164 190
Lee
Smith
1289
198
152
182
Dan
Quisenberry
1043
157
155
179
Rollie
Fingers
1701
188
144
172
Here are the other pitchers on the ballot in 2007 who got the highest
percentage of votes in 2006. There
are no real contenders among the new pitchers on the
ballot. I include Bret Saberhagen
as an example of this fact.
CWS
CV
NEWS
Tommy
John
289
165
208
Jack
Morris
225
172
206
Orel
Hershiser
210
171
203
As you can see, none of these four starting pitchers comes close to
a NEWS score of 250. So, none
of them has HOF numbers.
Summary
The 2007 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot contains the names of only six players
who have HOF numbers and deserve serious consideration for
induction.
Three of these are position players: Cal Ripken Jr., Mark McGwire and
Tony Gwynn.
Three of these are pitchers: Bert Blyleven, Goose Gossage and Lee
Smith.
