This material is adapted from the book,
BASEBALLS
BEST: The TRUE Hall of Famers by Michael Hoban, Ph.D. (booklocker.com,
June 2007).
Chapter
1
The analysis in this book is based on the state of the art system called WIN SHARES devised by the baseball statistical guru Bill James and explained in the book of the same name. From p.260 of the book, the authors intention is clear as he states:
The purpose of figuring Win Shares was not to wrap up any
discussion; rather, the purpose was to open up many more issues, to make
additional topics and additional issues more accessible to
research. The original idea of Win Shares was not that people would
read it and say Oh, well, that answers that
question. Exactly the opposite; what I wanted was for people to
say Oh, I can use that to study
this. I can use these Win Shares
to study
whatever it is you want to
study.
When I first began to work with the system, I sent an early article to Mr. James for his consideration. Mr. James responded to the article as follows (12/2/2004):
Mike-- I read and enjoyed
the article, and I appreciate your using Win
Shares for the purpose
for which it was intended. . .thanks.
Bill
This book explains
the rationale behind and the use of the NEWS system (Non-traditional Evaluative
Win Shares). The NEWS system
uses win shares to tell us which players
had the best careers. This
could be interpreted to mean which players were the best
players. But that conclusion
might be open to further discussion.
Fans of any sport are usually interested in knowing
who are (or were) the best players in the
game. At the end of the playing season, many fans enjoy looking
back and being able to say that player A had a better season than player
B. And when a players
career is ending, we like to conclude that C was better than D and
almost as good as E.
Comparing athletes in this way is almost a national pastime in
itself.
Baseball fans
are particularly fortunate in that no other sport rivals baseball for the
sheer number of statistics available for comparing the
players. In fact, there are
so many numbers available, that it often leads to confusion as to what to
look at in order to judge how good a player really is (or
was). For many years, a
players batting average (BA) was used to suggest who were the best
hitters. But, careful analysis
over a number of years has now convinced us that a combination of
on-base-percentage (OBP) and slugging average (SLG) is a better indicator
of who were the most effective batters.
Of course, in baseball,
batting alone does not tell us who is a better
player. Fielding must
also enter into the equation. And
judging fielding has always been more difficult than judging
hitting. The skills required of a good shortstop or catcher are
much different than those required of a left fielder or a first
baseman. And attempting to judge
who was the best all-around player has always been
difficult.
But not to
worry. Over the years, there
have been a number of dedicated people who have devoted a considerable amount
of time into researching these
questions. Many of these analysts
are members of an organization known as SABR (Society for American Baseball
Research). As a baseball fan
and a mathematician, I have spent considerable time over the past ten years
studying the various approaches that have been taken regarding the comparison
of baseball players. And I am
happy to report that the most highly respected of all of these analysts,
Bill James, has developed a system that I believe is
a quantum leap ahead of all such systems in this
regard.
Bill James is a dedicated researcher and a prolific
and enjoyable writer. For more
than thirty years he has been considered the guru of baseball
analysis. In fact, in 2004,
as a special advisor to the Boston Red Sox front office, he contributed to
that teams first World Series triumph in more than eighty
years.
In 2002, Bill
James published his book called WIN
SHARES in which he introduced a new system that was the product of more
than twenty-five years of research.
And it is this system that I am convinced is
far better than any other that has
been developed. The method is so revolutionary that I believe that it
is fair to say that FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, we are able to validly look
at and compare players (including hitting and fielding and pitching) no matter
when they played or who they played for.
The key to the value of Win
Shares is that it tells us how valuable a player was
to his team each
season. And, of course,
a players value to his team is what the game is all
about.
Win Shares is a very complex
system (the book is 728 pages long).
But it is not really necessary to understand every nuance of the system
in order to appreciate its value.
The true genius of the approach seems to be
two-fold. First, like any valid evaluation system, it measures a
player's value relative to the era in which he played and to the playing
conditions under which he performed.
That is, adjustments are made to account for such things as playing
in the dead-ball era or playing in a pitchers
ballpark. But the second
(and more remarkable achievement) is that it appears to be able to measure
a player's value regardless of whether he played on a winning or a losing
team. And it is not necessary
to completely understand how the system works in order to enjoy the results
that it produces.
Put as simply as possible,
here is what the Win Shares system does - it tells us how good a season a
player had. It awards a team
a certain number of win shares for the season depending on the number
of games that the team won during the
season. It then takes those
win shares and distributes them among the players on the team depending on
each players contribution to the team during the
season. And, as a rule of thumb,
here is how the number of win shares in a season can be interpreted for an
individual position player:
1. 30-40 Win
Shares
= MVP-type
Season
2.
20-30 Win Shares
= All-Star
Season
3.
10-20 Win Shares
= Solid Regular Player
4. 0-10 Win
Shares
= Bench Player
It is worth noting that
the average MVP winner through 2004 had 33.4 win shares for the
season.
Here is how the Win Shares
system is described in The Bill James
Handbook 2005
(ACTA
Sports) p.
361
A Win Share is one-third of a teams win, credited to an individual player. The Win Shares credited to the players on a team always total up to exactly three times the teams win total. If the team wins 100 games, the players on the team will be credited with 300 Win Shares 300 thirds of a win. If the team wins 80 games, the players on the team will be credited with 240 Win Shares, always and without exception.
Win Shares are a great tool for evaluating trades, award voting and
Hall of Fame credentials.
I certainly agree with this
last statement and that is why I feel that Win Shares (when used appropriately)
can tell us which players definitely have Hall of Fame
numbers.
To get a little more flavor
of what Win Shares are all about, consider the following statements from
Bill James himself in the Introduction to the book
WIN SHARES
(STATS, Inc.,
2002).
For many years, I have wanted to have a system to summarize
each players value each season into a simple
integer. Willie Mays value in 1954 is 40, in 1955, 40, in
1956, 27, while Mickey Mantle in the same three years is
36,41,49. If we had an analytical system
in which we
had confidence, and which
delivered results in that simple a form, it would open the door to researching
thousands of questions which are virtually inaccessible without such a
method. It would reduce enormously
the time and effort required to research such questions, which can be accessed
by other methods, but only with great
difficulty.
(p.3)
We have dozens of methods to compare
players. We have piecemeal ways to put those
together. What we lack is a
way of tying them all into a coherent
analysis. We need a comprehensive
system, in which we have confidence, which has a place for all of the things
we must think about when trying to assess value productivity, park
illusions, defense, playing time, contributions to winning
teams.
Everything. (p.
5)
This is the only analytical system I am aware of which is team-based,
rather than derived from individual
stats. Most analysis builds
up from the performance of individuals.
This analysis breaks down the performance of the
team. (p. 9)
This last point is crucial
to understanding the uniqueness of the Win Shares approach and to appreciating
the system. Besides being
comprehensive, it looks first at the teams accomplishments and then
determines each players contribution to the teams
success.
Win Shares Comprehensive Yet Simple
As long as the game has
been played, fans have attempted to compare players using the many statistics
available to do so. How many
hits or home runs or runs-batted-in or runs scored or stolen bases did the
player have? What was his batting
average or on-base percentage or slugging average or
OPS? And these numbers do not
tell us anything about his fielding ability.
The true genius of Win Shares
is that it includes ALL of a players contributions to his team and
represents them in a single number.
So that if we want to know who had the best season, we can simply
list those players who had the most win shares for that particular
season. For example, here are the top ten players in each league
in 2006 (data from hardballtimes.com).
American League
Batting
Fielding
Win
Shares
1. Derek
Jeter
28.0
4.6
33
2. Joe
Mauer
21.3
9.5
31
3. David
Ortiz
29.3
0.1
29
4. Manny
Ramirez
26.9
2.1
29
5. Justin
Morneau
25.5
2.0
28
6. Jermaine
Dye
23.7
2.8
27
7. Raul
Ibanez
24.0
3.1
27
8. Jim
Thome
25.9
0.0
26
9. Carlos
Guillen
21.5
4.3
26
10. Michael
Young
18.5
7.7
26
National League
1. Albert
Pujols
36.3
2.4
39
2. Carlos
Beltran
30.0
8.3
38
3. Lance
Berkman
31.7
2.0
34
4. Miguel
Cabrera
30.9
2.8
34
5. David
Wright
27.4
4.3
32
6. Ryan
Howard
29.8
1.2
31
7. Alfonso
Soriano
25.9
3.6
30
8. Jose
Reyes
26.3
3.1
29
9. Mike
Cameron
21.2
7.2
28
10. Chase
Utley
23.2
4.9
28
As you can see, Derek Jeter
had the best overall season in the American League in 2006 although David
Ortiz had the best hitting season.
And in the National League, Albert Pujols had both the best overall
season and the best hitting season.
As it turns out, Justin Morneau (American League) and Ryan Howard
(National League) were voted the MVPs for
2006.
Michael Hoban, Ph.D. is Professor
Emeritus (mathematics) of the City University of New
York. Professor Hoban
has been a baseball fan for over 60 years and a serious baseball analyst
for the past ten years (he is a member of SABR - Society for American Baseball
Research). He has previously
written two books devoted to the task of ranking players.
1.
Baseballs Complete Players
(McFarland:
2000) was an attempt to put the numbers together (both offensive and defensive)
to see who were baseballs best all-around players at each
position.
2.
Fielders Choice: Baseballs Best Shortstops
(Booklocker: 2003) was an attempt to rank the shortstops by defensive
skills and then by overall excellence.