The Excellence Plus points system I created works well for evaluating the Japanese Hall of Fame credentials of all players except pitchers who pitched a substantial part of their careers from 1970 onward. The problem lies in dealing with 1) releif aces, and 2) the far lower innings pitched totals for starters. The Excellence Plus bonus points for the best three years and the best five consecutive years don't give nearly as much of a boost to more modern pitchers compared to every other category of player. That leaves me with the choices of: 1) finding another benchmark to use for modern pitchers which complements the Excellence Plus points system, 2) finding a whole other rating system without this problem, or 3) ignore the problem and go with the conclusion that extraordinarily few pitchers from 1970 on deserve to be in Japan's Hall of Fame.

The last option is not acceptable to me, which leaves the first two. Given the work I've put into this effort, the second one isn't attractive. That leaves finding another benchmark for modern pitchers which complements the Excellence Plus points system. Fortunately, I think I've found such a benchmark--simply using career estimated Win Shares plus award points for these guys. It uses everything Excellence Plus does except the bonuses for the best three and best five consecutive years, and in the same way. Furthermore, this approach addresses the specific problem with Excellence Plus for these pitchers. Also, one can compare the results of each system in a fairly straightforward way:

I'll test this approach with:

    1) those Japanese Hall of Fame pitchers less WWII casualties Sawamura and Nishimura as well as Motoshi Fujita, who I believe earned his honor via managing.
    2) any pitchers with 350 or more Excellence Plus points;
    3) any pitchers with 150 or more Career Estimated Win Shares (EWS) plus points;
    4) less any pitchers who needed points from playing every day positions in order to meet the above categories.

It will help to look at the "probably in" and "probably out" categories as continuums in which players scoring near the top of the "probably in" category are close to shoo-ins. those scoring at the midpoints as 50-50 shots at getting the honor, and those scoring near the bottom of the "probably out" range as having a low chance of receiving the honor. The probability of being honored should slide evenly throughout the point ranges in question. Of course, there may be reasons to exclude guys who score well and induct some who score poorly (see Noburu Akiyama for an example of the latter, though I will make clear my thoughts on his induction in the comment covering his case). My rule of thumb is that the closer a player gets to the outer edges of the in-out continuum, the more evidence should be required to overrule what the rating system is telling us.

I'll list the pitchers who are seen as shoo-ins by both systems, but then won't say anything more about them. The reason for this is a) the systems agree, 2) they're the cream of the crop, about whom there is little or no question of their qualifications for Japan's Hall, and 3) most of them pitched before 1970, so the Career EWS plus method isn't really aimed at them. There are nine such pitchers, and listed alphabetically, they are: Akira Bessho, Hideo Fujimoto, Kazuhisa Inao, Masaichi Kaneda, Masaaki Koyama, Jiro Noguchi, Victor Starffin, Shigeru Sugishita, and Tadashi Wakabayashi.

The remaining pitchers should be looked at for one or both of the following reasons:
   1) to clarify their qualifications for Japan's Hall of Fame and/or
   2) to compare the Career EWS plus system to the Excellence Plus system.

Yutaka Enatsu:    over 200 EWS plus points, 447 Excellence Plus points
The first five pitchers are all seen by both systems as at least very strong candidates, so the difference in rating is not much more than a quibble. Enatsu pitched most of his career after 1970, so EWS is meant for him. Frankly, I think EWS' call that he's a shoo-in is more accurate than calling him a very strong candidate

Hisashi Yamaada:    over 200 EWS plus points, 443 Excellence Plus points
Another pitcher of more recent vintage for whom I prefer the EWS answer to that of Excellence Plus.

Ryohei Hasegawa:    over 200 EWS plus points, 433 Excellence Plus points
Pitched before 1970, and while I agree he's a worthy candidate because his teams were so lousy, it's hard to call someone with a below .500 record a shoo-in.

Minoru Murayama:    over 200 EWS plus points, 430 Excellence Plus points
Another guy whose career was basically over by 1970. I prefer the EWS decision of a shoo-in for him over calling him "just" a strong JHOF candidate.

Tadashi Sugiura:    over 200 EWS plus points, 427 Excellence Plus points
Another early era pitcher, for whom the EWS evaluation isn't intended. He's got relatively few wins (187) for a JHOF pitcher, and on that basis, I'd call him a strong candidate rather than a shoo-in. As such, I prefer the Excellence Plus evaluation of him.

Keishi Suzuki:    over 200 EWS plus points, 410 Excellence Plus points
The EWS system sees him as a shoo-in while Excellence Plus sees him as a strong candidate. His career was mostly after 1970, and he is in the JHOF. My personal opinion is the EWS evaluation is superior, but I can see the argument for preferring Excellence Plus' evaluation of him.

Tetsuya Yoneda:    over 200 EWS plus points, 414 Excellence Plus points
Presents the same scenario with respect the evaluations of the two systems, though his best years came before 1970. Even so, sinceYoneda won 350 games, I have to go with the EWS plus evaluation of him as a shoo-in.

Mitsuo Minagawa:    over 200 EWS plus points, 393 Excellence Plus points
I view him as a strong candidate, which puts me between the evaluations of these two systems. Call it a tie while noting his career ended in 1971.

Yutaka Ono:    199 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
He split his career between relieving and starting, which makes an evaluation of him more difficult. I tend to think that while EWS plus may be overly generous in seeing him as nearly a lock for the JHOF, that evaluation is far closer for this modern era pitcher than the Excellence Plus evaluation of forget about him.

Teruzo Nakao:    198 EWS plus points, 374 Excellence Plus points
He pitched in the 1940's, so EWS isn't meant for him. Even so, I'd say he's somewhere in between Excellence Plus' evaluation of him as a weak candidate and EWS plus' evaluation of him as a near lock is best. The fact he's in already takes some steam out of the lesser evaluation, to be sure.

Mitsuhiro Adachi:    195 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
He gets 4 points in each system for Gold Gloves, which inaccurately serves to inflate the already overinflated EWS plus evaluation. My own take is he's around a 50-50 shot for the Japanese Hall of Fame, and thus squarely between the evaluations of the two systems I use. Further complicating matters is the fact his career straddles the breakpoint year of 1970.

Atsushi Aramaki:    191 EWS plus points, 371 Excellence Plus points
He's from the 1950's, so the EWS plus system wasn't intended to handle cases like his. I think the Excellence Plus evaluation of him as a slightly below 50-50 shot is better than EWS plus' far more enthusiastic evaluation.

Takao Kajimoto:    191 EWS plus points, 399 Excellence Plus points
Both systems like him far more than I do, but Excellence Plus is closer to my view. My issues with his candidacy revolve around his 255 losses (versus 254 wins) and that I think an average pitcher would have outdone that with Kajimoto's teammates.

Osamu Higashio:    183 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
Initially, I was skeptical of hie Japanese Hall of Fame qualifications, but I'm now of the view EWS plus actually understates the strength of his case, primarily because it does nothing with his managing career. As a manager, he's the only man I see who has won at least two pennants who isn't in the Hall of Fame. His career is almost entirely 1970 and after, with only 15 innings before then. Therefore, EWS plus is definitely intended to look at cases such as his. Certainly, the EWS plus evaluation of him as a strong candidate is far better than the Excellence Plus evaluation that he doesn't deserve a second look.

Tokuji Kawasaki:    182 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
His career ended in 1957, so career EWS isn't really aimed at cases like his. I'm not overwhelmed by his JHOF qualifications, and thus lean toward the Excellence Plus evaluation that he's just shy of deserving serious consideration as a candidate. The EWS plus view that he's a strong candidate is just too generous, I think.

Choji Murata:    180 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
Less than 5% of his career IP come before 1970, so he's definitely a EWS plus target pitcher. I wrote in the comment on him in the Marines franchise all-stars that I thought he might well have a JHOF case. This new method strengthens that opinion, and I definitely prefer the EWS plus evaluation of him as a strong candidate to Excellence Plus' verdict he clearly doesn't belong.

Masaki Saito:    180 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
His career began in 1984, so he's definitely the kind of pitcher EWS plus was intended to be used for. In my comment on him in the Giants franchise all-stars, I clearly came down on the side of putting him in the JHOF. Career EWs plus agrees with me, while Excellence Plus dismisses his case out of hand. Obviously, I prefer the EWS plus view.

Kazuhiro Sasaki:    175 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
His career is still active and can move up in both ratings. However, I am partial to the EWS plus view that if his career ended today, he'd be a reasonable candidate as opposed to the Excellence Plus view which would dismiss him. One of the key reasons I prefer the EWS view is the fact he is my choice as the NPB pitcher of the 1990's, which is a JHOF-type qualification in and of itself.

Tsuneo Horiuchi:    173 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
If he has success as a manager (a couple of pennants, for instance), I'd say he'll make the JHOF. Otherwise, he's a tough call. His career straddles the 1970 EWS plus breakpoint, and his EWS plus score is almost exactly at the 50-50 probability mark. Excellence Plus dismisses his case, so I prefer the EWS evaluation.

Juzo Sanada:    172 EWS plus points, 413 Excellence Plus points
Another pitcher from the early days, and therefore not someone I really meant to use EWS plus for. He has been inducted, so I'd say Excellence Plus did a better job of evaluating his case as a strong one for the JHOF as opposed to EWS plus' much more lukewarm evaluation of his qualifications.

Hideo Nomo:    172 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
Excellence Plus' evaluation may be somewhat artificially low because of the rules I have for points obtained outside NPB. Even so, EWS plus clearly sees him as a 50-50 shot right now with the chance to move up. By contrast, Excellence plus doesn't think he deserves serious consideration. I score this case another win for EWS plus.

Kimiyasu Kudo:    167 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
Another pitcher who is still active and can move up. In the 1990 PL all decade team comment, I said he had a JHOF-type resume. Obviously, that means I am far more in agreement with EWS plus' evaluation that he's a viable candidate rather than Excellence Plus' view he's not even close to a JHOF candidate.

Hiromu Matsuoka:    162 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
Only about 5% of his career occurred before 1970, so he's the kind of guy I meant EWs plus to apply to. Neither system sees him as a strong candidate, and I agree. This time, though, I lean toward Excellence Plus' evaluation that he's not even a serious candidate as opposed to EWS more generous view.

Masaji Hiramatsu:    162 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
Again, neither system sees him as a strong candidate, and again, I agree. Once again, I lean toward the Excellence Plus evaluation that he's not even a serious candidate versus the more generous view of EWS plus.

Noburu Akiyama:    162 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
His career ended before 1970, so I didn't really intend to use EWs plus for him. He's been selected to the JHOF, which favors the EWS plus evaluation of him as a weak candidate over Excellence Plus' dismissal of his candidacy. I tend toward the Excellence Plus view that his selection is an outright mistake, but I have to call the contest between the two evaluation systems a draw in his case.

Yoshitaka Katori:    156 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
Relievers are a little harder to assess than starters, so that makes his case more difficult. However, I tend toward the Excellence Plus evaluation of dismissing his case as not worth further consideration. EWS plus sees him as a quite weak candidate, and cannot be considered horribly out of line, though.

Shoichi Ono:    155 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
His career ended in 1970, so EWS plus wasn't meant for him. Even so, I lean toward calling his case a rather weak one, a la EWS plus, over Excellence Plus outright dismissal of his case. Since I don't think he belongs, however, I don't feel strongly about the difference in evaluation.

Akio Saito:    154 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
I called him the best pitcher of the 1980's, which I think is a JHOF-type qualification. As such, I think the EWS plus view understates the strength of his case. However, its evaluation that he has a weak case is still superior to Excellence Plus' call that he's not a worthy candidate. My feeling is that if his teams had just left him in a relief role, he'd have a stronger case for the JHOF. The fact they didn't may doom his chances of receiving that honor.

Fumio Narita:    153 EWS plus points, under 350 Excellence Plus points
The heart of his career straddles the 1970 breakpoint, so EWS plus is certainly applicable. Neither approach sees him as anything more than a very weak candidate, but I lean toward Excellence Plus' view he isn't a worthy candidate over EWS plus more generous view.

Takumi Otomo:    under 150 EWS plus points, 360 Excellence Plus points
His career ended by 1960, so the EWS plus approach wasn't meant for his case. I think the more generous view of Excellence Plus that he's a weak candidate is preferable to EWS plus' call that he's not even worthy of further discussion. However, his career is so short that I feel his case fails anyway.

Neither system regards any other pitcher as a viable candidate, and I can't think of anyone who I seriously disagree with that assessment for. I didn't check out the career EWS plus for position players, primarily because I came up with Excellence Plus after starting with EWS plus because I felt EWS plus didn't work well for players with shorter productive periods in their careers, like Nakanishi or gaijin.

Overall. for pitchers before 1970, Excellence Plus evaluates them better than EWS plus, but it's close. When it comes to pitchers from 1970 on, EWS plus is far better than Excellence plus is. I preferred EWS plus strongly for nine post 1970 pitchers, leaned toward it twice more for such pitchers, see one such pitcher as a tie between the systems, and leaned against it four times for such pitchers. Furthermore, in all of the cases in which I leaned against EWS plus for post 1970 pitchers, EWS called the JHOF cases weak while Excellence Plus was less generous. Therefore, EWS plus definitely does what I wanted it to do, and does it well. Now we have all the pieces of the puzzle to evaluate the JHOF qualifications of all players.