Fun With the Oh Projections

 

            As I said in the main articles describing the case for Sadaharu Oh for the Hall of Fame Part One and Part Two, I had to work out Oh’s career data on a season-by-season basis in order to deal with the playing time issues I felt were an essential element in obtaining the most accurate estimate possible. This season by season data is around the level of estimates of estimates, and therefore I didn’t want to include it in the articles detailing the formal examination of the evidence regarding Oh’s worthiness for the HOF.               

            However, I feel the data is interesting, and also that it is likely (though by no means certain) that in Oh’s projected career of 19 seasons that any variations in the data should even out.  Thus, if Oh no longer projects to hit .300 in one season, he’d pick up the hits in another and hit .300 in that season.  If Oh no longer projects to be in the top 5 in HR in a certain season, he’d get those HR in another season, which would likely push him up to that top 5 level.  If we were talking about 19,000 seasons, those things would certainly happen, but in a sample as small as 19, well, chance has a lot better opportunity to screw things up.

            Here’s the season by season projection:

 

YEAR	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	TB	RBI	K	BB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1959	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1960	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1961	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1962	162	601	84	148	28	5	24	258	80	122	72	0.246	0.326	0.430
1963	162	553	114	153	30	12	24	279	95	75	123	0.276	0.408	0.504
1964	162	546	113	158	23	0	33	280	107	95	119	0.289	0.416	0.513
1965	156	495	106	144	19	3	25	244	94	68	138	0.291	0.446	0.493
1966	156	479	119	134	15	3	30	245	109	63	142	0.281	0.445	0.512
1967	161	515	100	152	21	8	30	279	102	80	130	0.295	0.437	0.542
1968	158	534	114	157	28	0	31	278	112	89	121	0.295	0.425	0.521
1969	162	563	123	176	24	0	29	287	100	77	111	0.312	0.425	0.510
1970	161	530	107	155	24	0	31	272	90	61	119	0.294	0.423	0.514
1971	162	541	101	135	21	5	25	241	98	82	121	0.250	0.387	0.446
1972	155	544	110	145	19	0	30	254	111	52	108	0.268	0.389	0.468
1973	162	533	122	171	20	0	33	290	111	52	124	0.321	0.449	0.544
1974	162	480	116	144	19	0	32	259	104	56	158	0.301	0.474	0.539
1975	159	490	85	126	13	0	22	205	93	79	123	0.258	0.407	0.419
1976	152	498	109	146	11	3	32	259	119	57	125	0.294	0.435	0.520
1977	162	538	126	158	14	0	33	271	120	47	126	0.293	0.427	0.503
1978	162	548	100	149	22	0	25	246	114	54	114	0.271	0.397	0.449
1979	150	507	80	131	14	0	22	211	79	61	89	0.258	0.368	0.416
1980	129	444	52	95	7	0	16	150	65	48	72	0.214	0.323	0.338
Totals	2995	9939	1982	2778	372	39	527	4809	1903	1318	2235	0.279	0.412	0.484

 

 

            A few highlights:  Oh is projected to hit .300 or more in 3 seasons, have an on base percentage of .400 or more in 13 seasons, have a slugging percentage of .500 or more in 11 seasons, to hit 30 or more homers in 10 seasons, to have 100 or more RBI in 11 seasons, and to score 100 or more runs in 15 seasons.  Once again, these are HOF-quality numbers.

            Rather than looking how often Oh would have met certain benchmarks, let’s look at how he does in terms of being a league leader (Note that an asterisk [*] means not calculated):

	National	League			American	League
Category	Led	Top 5	Top 10		Led	Top 5	Top 10
Total Bases	0	0	*		0	4	*
Average	0	1	3		0	3	7
On Base Percentage	8	13	*		6	15	*
Slugging Percentage	0	5	8		2	7	12
Homers	0	7	11		3	8	12
Doubles	0	0	2		0	0	2
Hits	0	0	1		0	0	3
Walks	9	16	18		13	16	17

That sure looks like a HOF performance without using any more formal metrics on it.  However, there are more formal metrics which can be brought to bear on such data, and they can be found at baseballreference.com.  Those two metrics are Black Ink and Gray Ink.  Black Ink is restricted to league leaderships, while Gray Ink awards points for finishing in the top 10.  The points awarded in each case are the same:  4 for average, RBI, and HR; 3 for hits, runs scored, and slugging percentage; 2 for steals, walks and doubles; and 1 for at bats, triples, and games, though in this last category I only gave Oh credit if he projected to play 162 games.

            Oh projects to get 43 Black Ink points as a National Leaguer, an 92 as an American Leaguer.  The highest total of a player eligible for the HOF but not in is Ross Barnes at 59.  There are only two others over 43 points and not in the Hall, Harry Stovey at 56 and Gavvy Cravath at 46.  Stovey and Barnes are 19^th century players, and Cravath got an enormous boost in this category by hitting almost all of his homers in the Baker Bowl.  In the range of 35-50 Black Ink points, there are 18 players, and 14 are in the Hall.  Other than Cravath, the other three not in the HOF all finished behind Oh’s projected minimum of 43 (Tony Oliva 41, Sherry Magee 35, and Tip O’Neill 35). The source of these black ink scores for other players is baseballreference.com, and they indicate an average HOFer has about 27 Black Ink points. It’s safe to say that 43 Black Ink points is a HOF-level achievement.  In Gray Ink, Oh projects to score 274 points as an American Leaguer, and 225 as a National Leaguer.  The highest score by an eligible player not in the HOF is Bert Blyleven at 239 points.  In the range of 210 to 240 Gray Ink points, there again are 18 eligible players, and 14 of them in the Hall.  Only Blyleven is over 225, the rest being Jim McCormick at 220, and Sherry Magee and Harry Stovey both at 210.  Baseballreference.com again is the source of these comparisons, and they say an average Hall of Famer has 144 Gray ink points.  Once again, Oh projects to have a HOF-type record.

            We can also use Bill James HOF Monitor system on Oh’s projected stats.  I know the system is designed for use with active players, but even James has used it for retired players.  Even if we give Oh no credit for being an all-star or being on championship teams, he scores 156.5 points as a National Leaguer, and 191.5 as an American Leaguer.  Either mark is in the class of players who are shoo-ins for the HOF.

            Maybe none of these uses of the projection are valid, but they are fun, and they certainly don’t contradict the verdict of the formal examination of Oh’s worthiness for a plaque in Cooperstown.