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MAJOR LEAGUE EQUIVALENTS OF TOP NPB PERFORMANCES


by Jim Albright


Players discussed in this article:

Hiromasa Arai 1987   Randy Bass 1985 Randy Bass 1986
Jack Bloomfield 1962 Alex Cabrera 2002   Alex Cabrera 2003
Warren Cromartie 1986 Warren Cromartie 1989 Fumio Fujimura 1950
Yoshinori Hirose 1964   Ichiro 1994 Ichiro 2000
Hideji Kato 1979 Tetsuharu Kawakami 1951   Makoto Kozuru 1949
Makoto Kozuru 1950 Hideki Matsui 2002 Nobuhiko Matsunaka 2004
Michihiro Ogasawara 2003   Hiroshi Oshita 1951 Tuffy Rhodes 2001
Tuffy Rhodes 2003 Bobby Rose 1999   Boomer Wells 1984
Kenichi Yazawa 1980 Wally Yonamine 1954  

When I wrote the article comparing top seasons of NPB's candidates for Cooperstown to their major league contemporaries, I decided to take the cream of the crop of the seasons of other hitters in Japan and do essentially the same thing for them. The methods for determining similarity are identical to the other article, but in this case the standards are based on NPB performance: 50 HR, a Triple Crown, or a .360 or better average. I also limited this to seasons after 1945, as NPB seasons before then could be quite short, plus NPB was a startup league and/or was playing during the total war of World War II, when many top athletes were serving their countries.

I'll tackle the seasons in chronological order. One obligatory note: when I say I prefer one player to another, I'm only talking about the season in question.

Makoto Kozuru, of 1949

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   149   580   189   25   20   15   15   100 .317 .515
Carl Furillo 142 546 177 27 10 18 4 37 .322 .506

I'd take Kozuru because of the large disparity in walks, but otherwise they're a good match.

Makoto Kozuru, of 1950

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   146   580   186   26   14   31   28   115 .321 .574
Duke Snider 152 620 199 31 10 31 16 58 .321 .553

Again, Kozuru has a sizeable edge in walks. However, Duke played more and was a fine centerfielder, so these two wind up being a rather good match that year.

Fumio Fujimura, 3b 1950

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   154   580   190   37   7   23   21   126 .320 .536
Larry Doby 142 503 164 25 5 25 8 98 .326 .545

Fujimura played more and walked more while playing just as demanding a defensive position. As good as Doby was in 1950, I think Fujimura was better.

Tetsuharu Kawakami, 1b 1951

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   131   505   172   30   6   11   14   74 .341 .487
Ferris Fain 117 425 146 30 3 6 0 80 .344 .471

Kawakami played more and had more power, but Fain had a better on base percentage. It's a rather even match.

Hiroshi Oshita, of 1951

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   134   485   168   19   16   21   5   81 .346 .582
Stan Musial 152 578 205 30 12 32 4 98 .355 .614

Oshita was awfully good in 1951, and he'd have to be to even be considered a decent match for Musial. That said, Musial was clearly better. Musial played more, had a higher average, walked more and had more power.

Wally Yonamine, of 1954

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   148   565   184   39   15   6   20   94 .326 .483
Irv Noren 125 426 136 21 6 12 4 43 .319 .481

Yonamine played more, stole more bases and walked a good bit more, so you've got to prefer his 1954 season to Noren's.

Jack Bloomfield, 2b 1962

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   139   496   168   27   21   8   6   45 .338 .526
Tommy Davis 163 665 230 27 9 27 18 33 .346 .535

Davis played more, stole more bases, and hit more homers. The slugging percentages of the two are close because Bloomfield played less and had a lot more triples. Bloomfield played a demanding defensive position in second base, while Davis was an outfielder/third baseman. The question of which one was better in 1962 comes down to how good Bloomfield was defensively.

Yoshinori Hirose, of 1964

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   152   492   163   31   14   7   72   48 .331 .494
Roberto Clemente 155 622 211 40 7 12 5 51 .339 .484

Clemente played much more, and with his superb defense, that's a bigger value than Hirose's big advantage in steals.

Hideji Kato, 1b 1979

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   152   558   184   33   5   23   14   84 .329 .533
Cecil Cooper 150 590 182 44 1 24 15 56 .328 .508

The biggest differences are Kato's extra walks, and the fact Cooper's total bases are spread out over a more at bats. Both differences are in Kato's favor, and that's who I'd pick that year.

Kenichi Yazawa, 1b-of 1980

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   150   530   177   28   3   18   2   72 .334 .499
Keith Hernandez 159 595 191 39 8 16 14 86 .321 .494

I'd take Hernandez' defense at first, and with his greater durability for the year, I have to choose his year. Overall, though, they're a good match.

Boomer Wells, 1b 1984

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   160   601   196   27   4   27   2   62 .327 .520
Mike Easler 156 601 188 31 5 27 1 58 .313 .516

They're awfully close, with Wells rating a small edge before defense is considered. I can't say if Wells' advantage would hold up. This is Wells' Triple Crown year in NPB. The comparison to Easler is specially interesting, because Easler excelled in the majors for a few years once he finally got serious playing time in the majors at age 29. Guys like Wells went to Japan without getting that playing time in the majors despite usually doing well in the minors. Really, these two had similar beginnings to their careers, and diverged because Wells went to Japan without getting his shot in the majors, while Easler stayed and eventually got his shot.

Randy Bass, 1b 1985

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   157   619   200   24   0   39   1   76 .323 .551
Don Mattingly 159 652 211 48 3 35 2 56 .324 .567

Bass is another guy who had trouble getting a full shot in the majors despite doing well in the minors (his high for a season in plate appearances in MLB was just over 200 in 1981). I don't think it's ridiculous to think he could have played nearly as well as Mattingly given the chance. I'd take Mattingly's year because the edge of 24 doubles is more important than Bass' edge of 20 walks and because Mattingly played more. This was Bass' first NPB Triple Crown year.

Randy Bass, 1b 1986

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   157   565   202   36   4   34   2   93 .358 .618
Don Mattingly 162 677 238 53 2 31 0 53 .352 .573

This is Bass' second NPB Triple Crown year. Mattingly played more, and may deserve some consideration because his home park of Yankee Stadium may have hurt him overall. However, Bass had a higher average, walked 40 more times, and had a better slugging percentage. I think Bass had the better year in 1986, though only a fool would have traded Mattingly even up for Bass since Bass was about 7 years older.

Warren Cromartie, of 1986

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   155   587   196   34   7   27   6   49 .335 .551
Kirby Puckett 161 680 223 37 6 31 20 34 .328 .537

Puckett played much more, which at this level of play is a big deal. Yes, Cromartie had a higher average, walked more, and had a higher slugging percentage, but those edges are fairly small, so I'll take the extra playing time.

Hiromasa Arai, of 1987

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   160   627   211   25   11   9   5   39 .337 .458
Kevin Seitzer 161 641 207 33 8 15 12 80 .323 .470

Seitzer walked more and had a better slugging percentage, and probably was also worth more defensively due to his work at third. I'd take him over Arai in 1987.

Warren Cromartie, of 1989

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   155   547   191   38   2   11   7   56 .349 .486
Kirby Puckett 159 635 215 45 4 9 11 41 .339 .465

Puckett and Cromartie are paired again. Cromartie's average is better, he walked more, and had a better slugging percentage. However, Puckett played more and was probably better with the glove as he was younger. It's a tough call.

Ichiro, of 1994

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   115   483   85   173   36   7   7   44   22   36 .358 .505
Kenny Lofton 112 459 105 160 32 9 12 57 60 52 .349 .536

This is the year ended by strike in the majors. Lofton probably is better defensively at this point, but, if not, he's not going to concede much ground. Lofton has more power and a better on base percentage, and that's why I'd take his season in 1994.

Bobby Rose, 2b 1999

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   161   625   215   40   4   27   3   61 .343 .548
Derek Jeter 158 627 219 37 9 24 19 91 .349 .552

Jeter has significant edges in walks and steals, but otherwise at the plate, they're an excellent match. Jeter probably doesn't lose ground defensively, as I get the sense Rose wasn't a super glove man. If that sense of Rose's glove work is accurate, it would explain why he had trouble making it in the majors. I'm not exactly in awe of Jeter's defense, but in this case, I see little reason to give Rose any edge in that area.

Ichiro, of 2000

Player G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   126   474   80   171   25   2   9   46   15   52 .361 .479
Chris Stynes 119 380 71 127 24 1 12 40 5 32 .334 .497

It's hard to get a good match for Ichiro in 2000, and Stynes is the one the method comes up with. He's as good as anybody. He played even less than Ichiro and didn't steal or walk as often and had a lower average. However, he did have more power. Ichiro's excellent defensive skills seal the deal, as Stynes can't make up much ground that way.

Tuffy Rhodes, of 2001

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   162   636   194   22   0   38   9   77 .305 .520
Magglio Ordonez 160 593 181 40 1 31 25 70 .305 .533

This is Rhodes' 55 homer year in Japan, and even so, once we account for the difference in leagues, he's got a lower slugging percentage than Ordonez. Overall, I'd take Rhodes mainly because he played more, but it's close.

Hideki Matsui, of 2002

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   162   579   180   30   2   35   3   106 .311 .551
Albert Pujols 157 590 185 40 2 34 2 72 .314 .561

Pujols edges him in power despite the fact this is Hideki's 50 homer year in NPB. However, I'd definitely go with Matsui in 2002 due to the advantage in walks.

Alex Cabrera, 1b 2002

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   148   517   162   26   0   38   4   93 .313 .586
Jason Giambi 155 560 176 34 1 41 2 109 .314 .598

Leaving Giambi's steroid use out of it, you'd have to go with Giambi, who played more and had slightly better marks in on-base percentage and power. This was Cabrera's first time in NPB with 50 or more homers.

Tuffy Rhodes, of 2003

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   160   588   151   18   0   36   7   91 .257 .470
Mark Teixiera 146 529 137 29 5 26 1 44 .259 .480

This is Rhodes' other NPB season with at least 50 homers, and while it's better than Teixiera's year due to more playing time and a better on base percentage, it's not an overwhelming year.

Alex Cabrera, 1b 2003

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   143   529   160   27   0   35   2   63 .302 .552
Dmitri Young 155 562 167 34 7 29 2 58 .297 .537

This is Cabrera's 55 homer season. It's tough to choose between him and Young because he has edges in on base and slugging percentages, but is behind in playing time and probably in defensive value as well.

Michihiro Ogasawara, 3b 2003

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   148   515   173   39   2   22   8   87 .335 .543
Bill Mueller 146 524 171 45 5 19 1 58 .326 .540

These two are an excellent match except for the walk total, and that's why I'd go with Ogasawara

Nobuhiko Matsunaka, 1b 2004

Player G AB H 2B 3B HR SB BB    avg   slg
MLB equivalent   158   582   194   44   2   32   2   82 .333 .583
Vladimir Guerrero 156 612 206 39 2 39 15 52 .337 .598

Matsunaka won a Triple Crown in the Pacific League in 2004. Matsunaka's edge of 30 walks is significant, but Guerrero has more steals and power to balance the scales. I think that Vlad's defense gives him the nod, but not by much.


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