The 2007 Review of NPB Free Agents, Posted Players, and Players to Watch

2006 Review / 2005 Review

By Jim Albright

Note: Player salaries are calculated based upon the December 19, 2006 exchange rate of about 118 yen to the dollar, or $84.79 per 10,000 Yen.

Players Discussed in this Article

Shinnosuke Abe	Kosuke Fukudome	Kei Igawa
Akinori Iwamura	Ken Kadokura	Hiroki Kuroda
Daisuke Matsuzaka	Michihiro Ogasawara	Hideki Okajima

A. 2007 NPB Free Agents

The guys in this section are either former major leaguers who are free agents, at least arguably played at a major league starting level, are free agents under the age of 35, or have given serious indications they want to go to the majors.

Hiroki Kuroda dob Feb 10, 1975 BR TR
pos P 2006 salary: $2.54 million

YEAR	G	W	L	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K	R	ER	ERA
2002	26	9	11	0	187.0	203	23	41	145	110	98	4.72
2003	32	11	11	0	232.1	240	25	55	137	126	111	4.30
2004	24	5	11	0	169.1	232	24	36	140	139	129	6.86
2005	31	16	10	0	230.2	213	23	49	157	100	86	3.36
2006	28	13	6	0	205.2	197	16	24	138	82	69	3.02

He resigned with his team, so he's not coming this year. However, though the deal is for four years, he apparently has the option of going to the majors if he wishes. He would have had a poor 2004, but he would have been a valuable pitcher in the majors the rest of the past five years due to fine control and doing a solid job of keeping the ball in the park.

Hideki Okajima dob Dec 25, 1975 BL TL
pos P 2006 salary: $543 K

YEAR	G	W	L	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K	R	ER	ERA
2002	60	6	3	0	64.1	52	11	27	59	35	31	4.34
2003	47	2	3	0	44.0	55	8	24	29	42	40	7.95
2004	62	4	3	0	54.2	42	7	25	55	27	24	3.95
2005	45	1	0	0	56.2	63	13	22	53	43	40	6.35
2006	67	2	2	0	65.0	59	7	18	66	32	28	3.88

The Red Sox have signed this lefty reliever to a contract. He's had a pattern over the past five years of being a solid major leaguer in even numbered years and horrid in odd numbered years. He's got to break that pattern to help the Sox this year. It's possible they like him against lefties and he'd be effective as that kind of specialist

Michihiro Ogasawara dob Oct 25, 1973 BL TR
pos 3B/1B 2006 salary: $3.22 million

YEAR	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	AVG	OB PCT	SLG
2002	156	562	178	31	4	22	71	.316	.393	.503
2003	148	515	173	39	2	22	87	.335	.431	.543
2004	123	459	148	23	4	13	69	.321	.410	.474
2005	158	612	161	32	4	27	58	.263	.327	.457
2006	150	550	160	34	2	21	65	.291	.366	.476

He was a free agent, but signed a 4 year deal with the Yomiuri Giants. However, he's been on a pace for the Japanese HOF, so I wanted to see how he'd have stacked up in the majors. His OBPs except in an off year in 2005 have been excellent, and he's certainly hit well if he was a 3B. As a 1B, his power numbers would have been a little on the low side.

Ken Kodokura dob Jul 29, 1973 BR TR
pos P 2005 salary: $635K

YEAR	G	W	L	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K	R	ER	ERA
2002	19	0	4	0	34.0	31	6	15	33	21	19	5.03
2003	23	3	7	0	112.2	1126	17	54	104	87	80	6.39
2004	49	4	8	0	89.2	106	26	33	89	82	76	7.63
2005	31	9	10	0	213.1	203	25	88	169	119	106	4.47
2006	30	6	12	0	165.1	215	25	59	108	134	123	6.70

There's only one season of the past five he'd even qualify as mediocre by major league standards. The rest are even worse. Pass.

B. NPB Players Posted for 2007 MLB Season

The biggest fish among the major league imports this year. If it weren't for the abusive way he was used in the past two seasons, I'd have few reservations about him beyond the standard ones for pitchers. However, he averaged 144 pitches per game in 2005 and "eased off" to 138 per game in 2006. It seems his arm has survived that abuse, but I hate to see that kind of thing in any pitcher's history. He probably won't do quite as well as the projection, which is to a neutral major league park rather than to Fenway, but he's definitely got the potential to be in the low 3's in ERA there.

Kei Igawa dob Jul 13, 1979 BL TL
pos P 2006 salary: $1.87 million

YEAR	G	W	L	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K	R	ER	ERA
2002	36	14	9	0	242.2	203	21	66	211	101	86	3.19
2003	33	13	12	0	237.1	228	21	72	182	122	107	4.06
2004	34	11	14	0	235.1	240	42	68	237	148	133	5.09
2005	29	7	14	0	184.2	229	30	69	137	145	134	6.53
2006	31	14	9	0	226.1	210	23	57	186	103	89	3.54

The Yankees won his rights and signed him after the Hanshin Tigers posted him. I'd say the key for him will be keeping the ball in major league parks. He'll probably get some help in that respect from being a lefty in Yankee Stadium. If you look at the past five seasons, a major problem in the two that were subpar (2004 and 2005) were gopher balls--the other problem would have been giving up over a hit an inning. If he keeps those issues in check, he should be fine. If not, it could be a long season for him.

Akinori Iwamura dob Feb 9, 1979 BL TR
pos 3B 2006 salary: $1.83 million

YEAR	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	AVG	OB PCT	SLG
2002	162	590	176	40	4	16	54	.298	.357	.459
2003	69	268	66	7	4	8	20	.245	.299	.391
2004	162	626	175	22	0	31	66	.280	.349	.464
2005	160	608	181	34	7	20	56	.298	.357	.475
2006	161	606	176	29	3	21	63	.290	.357	.456

The Devil Rays won his rights and signed him. Other than his 2003 season when he suffered a wrist injury, he's been a heck of a player in the past five seasons. I expect him to be a bright spot for Tampa.

C. NPB Players to Watch

The players in the preceding sections are either free agents, have been posted, or at least have a commitment from the NPB team they play for that they will be posted. The following players aren't going to the majors in 2007.

The standards for a player to make this section are that first, the player must be less than 30 years old on April 1, 2007, and meet one of the following two criteria: a) have accumulated at least 200 rtg2 points in his career to date or b) be a pitcher with at least 100 career estimated win shares (EWS) in his career to date. The first standard eliminates those players who are too old to be regarded as hot prospects for the majors in 2006 or after. The second set of requirements are designed to ensure that the players selected are rather high quality talents in Japan.

Kosuke Fukudome dob Apr 26, 1977 BL TR
pos OF 2006 salary: $2.16 million

YEAR	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	AVG	OB PCT	SLG
2002	162	627	201	48	5	13	42	.320	.362	.477
2003	162	611	178	34	20	24	73	.291	.367	.529
2004	108	411	106	22	13	16	45	.258	.332	.494
2005	158	571	175	42	10	19	83	.306	.394	.515
2006	144	550	180	51	9	21	68	.327	.401	.565

He'll be a free agent after the 2007 season if he doesn't resign with his team during the year. He wasn't healthy in 2004, but otherwise, you've got to love this caliber of play from a CF with a rep for a good glove. The past two seasons, he's hit like Bobby Abreu to go with that glove. You have to love that combination.

Shinnosuke Abe dob Mar 20, 1979 BL TR
pos C 2006 salary: $1.19 million

YEAR	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	AVG	OB PCT	SLG
2002	147	516	143	29	0	13	43	.278	.333	.408
2003	109	363	102	17	2	10	37	.282	.349	.425
2004	127	445	125	25	2	23	41	.280	.341	.503
2005	144	528	148	17	0	17	46	.280	.337	.412
2006	143	502	138	28	3	7	31	.274	.317	.385

He's had two straight seasons of decline in the power department, which makes 2004's results look more and more like a fluke. His OBP has declined each of the past three years as well. If he doesn't perform above 2006 levels, the only way I see the majors having any interest is if they like his defense at catcher. Given that his Yomiuri Giants may be looking for a better defensive catcher if he doesn't pick up the offense, I have my doubts in that regard.