The Hall of Fame Pitchers: The Four Categories of Excellence

Michael Hoban, Ph.D.

In the previous section, I presented the 5 Levels of Greatness for the 20^th century position players who posted Hall of Fame numbers during their careers (since 1901) – according to the CAWS CAREER GAUGE. We saw that there are one hundred fifteen (115) such players.

I will now present the 4 Categories of Excellence for the 20^th century pitchers who posted HOF numbers during their playing days. We will see that there are fifty-one (51) such pitchers.

The CCG has separated those 20^th century pitchers who have Hall of Fame numbers into four categories depending on their CAWS score and innings pitched (that is, according to their career numbers). We will look at these pitchers in the pages that follow. The lists of pitchers will include those who are in the Hall of Fame and those who have the numbers but are not yet inducted.

For example, we will see that Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal and Sandy Koufax were all great pitchers who had Hall of Fame numbers during their careers. But Bob Gibson’s career numbers establish him as a Category 1 pitcher while Juan Marichal had a Category 2 career and Sandy Koufax a Category 3 career.

Here are the four categories of major league pitchers (who actually posted HOF numbers) and the number of pitchers in each category – a total of fifty-one (51) players.

Category 1 – Pitchers with a CAWS score > 260 = 20

Category 2 – Pitchers with a CAWS score < 260 and > 235 = 15

Pitchers with CAWS < 235 but with CWS > 300 = 4

Category 3 – Pitchers with a CAWS score > 180 in Fewer than 2400 Innings = 7

Category 4 – Pitchers with a CAWS score > 150 in Fewer than 1500 Innings = 5

Category 1 - Pitchers with a CAWS score > 260

Since 1901, there have been only twenty (20) pitchers who attained a CAWS career score of 260 or better. These are the 20^th century’s best major league starting pitchers.

Pitchers who pitched predominantly in the Deadball Era (1901-1919) are designated by an asterisk (*). Since many pitchers in that time-frame pitched many more innings than in the modern era (1920 to present), the comparison between pitchers from the two eras may not be entirely appropriate.

All numbers include the 2014 season.

Bold = Hall of Famer

CWS = Career Win Shares

CV = Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)

CAWS = Career Assessment/Win Shares = CV + .25(CWS – CV)

CWS CV CAWS

1. Walter Johnson* (1907-1927) 560 380 425

2. Pete Alexander* (1911-1930) 476 331 367

3. Christy Mathewson* (1900-1916) 426 335 358

4. Lefty Grove (1925-1941) 391 301 324

5. Roger Clemens (1984-2007) 432 260 303

6. Warren Spahn (1942-1965) 412 259 297

7. Tom Seaver (1967-1986) 388 255 288

8. Eddie Plank* (1901-1917) 361 259 285

9. Greg Maddux (1986-2008) 398 246 284

10. Gaylord Perry (1962-1983) 369 243 275

11. Bob Gibson (1959-1975) 317 258 273

12. Mordecai Brown* (1903-1916) 296 264 272

13. Steve Carlton (1965-1988) 366 240 272

14. Phil Niekro (1964-1987) 374 235 270

15. Joe McGinnity* (1899-1908) 269 269 269

16. Robin Roberts (1948-1966) 339 246 269

17. Jim Palmer (1965-1984) 312 252 267

18. Vic Willis* (1898-1910) 293 257 266

19. Carl Hubbell (1928-1943) 305 248 262

20. Ed Walsh* (1904-1917) 265 259 261

For most serious fans, this list will hold very few surprises although there may be one or two names from the deadball era that may not be too familiar.

Some observations:

Cy Young’s career bridged the 19^th and 20^th centuries. But the majority of his accomplishments took place in the 19^th century – so he is not included here.
You will note that eight of these twenty pitchers pitched predominantly in the deadball era. This does appear to be a disproportionate number. As noted above, this is almost certainly due in part to the fact that pitchers tended to pitch many more innings in that era.
Four of these pitchers attained a CAWS score > 260 even though they did not have 300 career win shares (and all were from the deadball era): Mordecai Brown, Joe McGinnity, Vic Willis and Ed Walsh. This was also due to the fact that they were able to earn more win shares per season because they pitched relatively more innings per season. All of the pitchers in Category 1 from the modern era have more than 300 CWS.
As you might expect, all of these pitchers are in the Hall of Fame - except for Roger Clemens.
Note that Roger Clemens has the best career numbers for any right-handed pitcher of the modern era. Whether those numbers were earned fairly or with the help of performance enhancing drugs is another question.
All 20 of these pitchers have a core value (CV) of 235 or better. That means that each one averaged better than 23 win shares for his ten best seasons. That is a remarkable achievement for a pitcher.

Category 2 contains the names of nineteen (19) more pitchers who posted HOF numbers during the century. This category has two distinct groups:

15 pitchers with CAWS score < 260 and > 235
4 pitchers with CAWS score < 235 and CWS > 300

As (b) above implies, the CAWS CAREER GAUGE suggests that any major league pitcher who earns 300 win shares in his career certainly has Hall of Fame numbers.

Category 2 (a) - Pitchers with a CAWS score < 260 and > 235

CWS CV CAWS

21. Fergie Jenkins (1965-1983) 323 233 256

22. Randy Johnson (1988-2009) 326 230 254

23. Bob Feller (1936-1956) 292 239 252

24. Bert Blyleven (1970-1992) 339 218 248

25. Wilbur Cooper* (1912-1926) 266 239 246

26. Burleigh Grimes (1916-1934) 286 231 245

27. Hal Newhouser (1939-1955) 264 234 242

28. Jack Powell* (1897-1912) 287 227 242

CWS CV CAWS

29. Eppa Rixey (1912-1933) 315 217 242

30. Red Ruffing (1924-1947) 322 212 240

31. Early Wynn (1939-1963) 309 217 240

32. Juan Marichal (1960-1975) 263 229 238

33. Carl Mays (1915-1929) 256 230 237

34. Ted Lyons (1923-1946) 312 210 236

35. Stan Covaleski (1912-1928) 245 231 235

Category 2 (b) - Pitchers with CAWS score < 235 and CWS > 300

Tom Glavine (1987-2008) 314 203 231

Nolan Ryan (1966-1993) 334 191 227

Don Sutton (1966-1988) 319 187 220

Dennis Eckersley (1975-1998) 301 183 213

Some observations:

Only four pitchers in Categories 1 and 2 have been eligible and are not in the Hall of Fame: Wilbur Cooper, Jack Powell, Carl Mays and Roger Clemens. Cooper and Powell happen to be the only two in Category 2 from the deadball era and Mays pitched shortly after that era.
All of the pitchers in Categories 1 and 2 who pitched since 1930 and have been eligible are now in Cooperstown (except Clemens).
Roger Clemens, of course, has been tainted by the “steroids scandal.” And the recent voting history of the BBWAA seems to indicate that no “steroids abuser” will ever be elected to the Hall. Only time will tell.
Note that only three of these pitchers did not attain a core value (CV) of 200 or better: Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton and Dennis Eckersley. I think it is fair to say that their place in Cooperstown owes as much to the longevity of their careers than to any other single factor. Each of them pitched in the majors for at least twenty-three seasons.

These thirty-nine (39) Category 1 and 2 pitchers all have Hall of Fame numbers. And there are twelve (12) more 20^th century pitchers who also had outstanding careers.

What we will see is that these twelve pitchers did not pitch as many career innings as those in Categories 1 and 2 but still managed to turn in such outstanding numbers that they have clearly earned a place in the Hall of Fame.

Of the twelve (12) pitchers in Categories 3 and 4, six are in the Hall of Fame and four are not yet eligible. Only two have been snubbed so far and both are relief pitchers: Lee Smith and Dan Quisenberry.

The CAWS CAREER GAUGE has identified two standards to determine who has HOF numbers in Categories 3 and 4. Each of these accomplishments is judged to be worthy of induction into the Hall.

Category 3 – Pitchers with a CAWS score > 180 in Fewer than 2400 Innings = 7

Category 4 – Pitchers with a CAWS score > 150 in Fewer than 1500 Innings = 5

When dealing with pitchers, it is essential to recognize the importance of taking into account the fact that there have been some truly outstanding pitchers who have established very impressive numbers in a relatively short period of time. And, of course, to also recognize that relief specialists are going to pitch much fewer innings than starters.

Therefore, it is imperative to study the numbers very carefully in order to recognize (and to honor) the pitchers who fit into these two groups. And I think the CCG has done this.

Category 3 - Pitchers with a CAWS score > 180 in Fewer than 2400 Innings

All numbers include the 2014 season (unless otherwise indicated)

Bold = Hall of Famer

CWS = Career Win Shares

CV = Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)

CAWS = Career Assessment/Win Shares = CV + .25(CWS – CV)

IP = Innings Pitched

*= Deadball Era

In the entire 20^th century, I have found only seven (7) pitchers who do not qualify for Categories 1 and 2 but who do satisfy the standard for Category 3. And every one of these pitchers who has been eligible has been elected to the Hall. (I should also note that Mariano Rivera who is in Category 4 would also qualify here.)

IP CWS CV CAWS

Pedro Martinez 2297 224 200 206

Addie Joss* 2327 191 191 191

Sandy Koufax 2324 194 190 191

Hoyt Wilhelm 2254 256 168 190

Goose Gossage 1809 223 173 186

Roy Halladay 2297 194 183 186

Dizzy Dean 1967 181 180 180

These numbers represent career numbers for each pitcher with the exception of Pedro Martinez and Roy Halladay. For Martinez and Halladay, they represent their career totals through thirteen seasons (that is, 2004 for Pedro and 2010 for Halladay).

That is, each of these two recent pitchers took only thirteen seasons to establish HOF pitching credentials.

Five of these great pitchers were starters during their careers. But Hoyt Wilhelm and Goose Gossage achieved their greatest recognition as relief pitchers.

In Category 4, we honor those “true” relief pitchers who had really outstanding careers. That is, those few relief pitchers who were able to post a CAWS score of 150 in fewer than 1500 innings. This is a very tough standard. As you can see, only five relievers have met this standard.

Category 4 - Pitchers with a CAWS score > 150 in Fewer than 1500 Innings

IP CWS CV CAWS

Mariano Rivera 1211 255 175 195

Bruce Sutter 1042 168 163 164

Lee Smith 1289 198 152 164

Billy Wagner 903 182 151 159

Dan Quisenberry 1043 157 155 156

These are the only relievers of the 20^th century who satisfy these criteria.

One look at Mariano Rivera’s numbers would appear to bear testimony to the fact that he is the best pure reliever in history. His numbers really are far superior to any one else in this category.

Bruce Sutter is the only one on the list who is already in Cooperstown. Lee Smith is still on the BBWAA ballot. Mariano and Billy Wagner are not yet eligible. Only Dan Quisenberry in this group has been passed over completely.

Just for comparison purposes, I list here a few other very good relievers. None of these pitchers reached the CAWS standard for HOF numbers.

IP CWS CV CAWS

Trevor Hoffman 1089 188 135 148

John Franco 1246 183 128 142

Mike Marshall 1387 146 139 141

Kent Tekulve 1436 159 135 141

Note that Trevor Hoffman, despite all of his saves, still does not quite make the mark.

These then are the twelve (12) pitchers who qualify for Categories 3 and 4. These twelve together with the thirty-nine (39) pitchers in Categories 1 and 2 represent the fifty-one (51) 20^th century pitchers who have Hall of Fame numbers according to the CAWS CAREER GAUGE.

It is interesting to note that of these fifty-one pitchers only four have so far been passed over completely for induction into the Hall: Wilbur Cooper, Jack Powell and Carl Mays (all of whom pitched before 1930) and Dan Quisenberry.

Michael Hoban, Ph.D is Professor Emeritus of mathematics at the City University of N.Y. He has been an avid baseball fan for over 60 years and has become a serious baseball analyst, since joining SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) in 1998. He is the author of five baseball books including: DEFINING GREATNESS: A Hall of Fame Handbook (Booklocker, 2012) BASEBALL'S COMPLETE PLAYERS (McFarland: 2000) and FIELDER'S CHOICE (Booklocker: 2003).

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