Jim Albright / the japanese insider

Possible NPB Imports for 2004 The list of those players opting for free agency in Japan this year is out, and it is a rather small group. We don't know who, if anyone, will be posted, but I've rated two guys whose names have been mentioned for possible posting. Should players I have not reviewed be posted, I will review them and update the article. The format will follow that of my article on the 2003 possibles, and I will not review the details of how the numbers were crunched to arrive at these equivalents. I will remind the readers, however that the projections for hitters should be regarded as of much higher predictive value than those for pitchers. Players Discussed in this Article Tadahito Iguchi Kazuo Matsui Akinori Otsuka Tsuyoshi Shimoyanagi   Shingo Takatsu     Kazuo Matsui dob Oct 23, 1975 BB TR pos SS 2003 salary: $2.9 million YEAR TEAM G AB H 2B 3B HR BB AVG OB PCT SLG 1999 LIONS 162 647 199 33 8 11 54 .308 .361 .433 2000 LIONS 162 660 198 46 21 17 44 .300 .344 .508 2001 LIONS 162 639 183 31 4 17 43 .287 .332 .426 2002 LIONS 162 673 208 52 11 25 49 .309 .356 .531 2003 LIONS 162 679 193 42 7 23 51 .284 .334 .468 Now a free agent and about to entertain offers from the majors. I see no reason to change my assessment of last year, namely that he is one of the five best shortstops in the world today. His dropoff in steals in 2003 is a small concern, but I suspect it is mostly a function of being moved to 3rd in the batting order. That spot is not ideal for a lot of steal attempts, since even successful steals leave opponents the option of intentionally walking the cleanup hitter, Tadahito Iguchi dob Dec 4, 1974 BR TR pos 2B 2003 salary: $670,000 YEAR TEAM G AB H 2B 3B HR BB AVG OB PCT SLG 1999 HAWKS 139 444 93 18 2 10 37 .209 .269 .326 2000 HAWKS 65 194 45 11 4 5 14 .230 .284 .402 2001 HAWKS 162 639 155 29 2 21 57 .243 .305 .393 2002 HAWKS 132 495 120 16 2 13 25 .242 .278 .357 2003 HAWKS 156 596 189 42 2 19 75 .317 .393 .488 It's really hard to say what to expect from Iguchi if he goes to the majors as he's never been consistent at any level of accomplishment in the past five years. He was a shortstop before 2001, when he was moved to second. This may have made him more comfortable in the field, and that could have carried over at the plate. 2002 can somewhat be discounted due to the fact he was suffering from a shoulder injury much of the year. This past season represents a huge jump forward in plate discipline and average. I for one am always suspicious when such jumps come in years when the player is playing for a big contract in the off season. However, it presently appears the Hawks will not post him, so we'll probably get another season to try and get a fix on his talents. If things change again and he is posted, I'd say the most reasonable guess as to what he'd do is halfway between the 2001 and 2003 seasons. 2003 certainly shows 2001 was no fluke. Akinori Otsuka dob Jan 13, 1972 BR TR pos P 2003 salary: $790,000 YEAR TEAM G W L SV IP H HR BB K R ER ERA 1999 BUFFALOES 30 1 4 7 33.2 31 2 15 40 18 13 3.58 2000 BUFFALOES 47 1 3 26 45.1 40 6 19 62 16 16 3.25 2001 BUFFALOES 56 2 5 29 63.1 52 13 22 100 36 36 5.10 2002 BUFFALOES 47 2 1 24 46.2 27 8 4 66 10 9 1.66 2003 DRAGONS 59 1 3 19 49.0 38 8 7 68 14 14 2.57 Has been posted again after receiving no interest from MLB when he was posted after the 2002 season. He's no youngster, but might be a good short term gamble for a setup man/backup closer. San Diego is rumored to be interested. The key question will be if the majors will offer enough cash to get the Dragons to give him up. Shingo Takatsu dob Nov 25, 1968 BR TR pos P 2003 salary: $1.4 million YEAR TEAM G W L SV IP H HR BB K R ER ERA 1999 SWALLOWS 48 1 1 34 47.0 41 12 12 48 16 15 2.85 2000 SWALLOWS 42 0 1 31 36.2 41 8 12 37 12 12 2.92 2001 SWALLOWS 60 0 4 33 54.1 61 6 19 48 24 22 3.56 2002 SWALLOWS 51 0 2 14 46.0 46 11 16 34 27 26 5.05 2003 SWALLOWS 51 2 3 19 41.0 52 13 30 32 26 20 4.41 Japan's all-time saves leader is now a free agent. He says he'd go to the majors if the team met his "conditions", one of which would be to be the closer. If that's the case, I'd suggest he restrict his search to Japan. Frankly, I suspect that the majors are merely an attempt by him to pump up his value in Japan. If I were a MLB GM, I'd pass on a pitcher of his age, salary, and recent performance unless I was truly desperate. Tsuyoshi Shimoyanagi dob May 16, 1968 BL TL pos P 2003 salary: $580,000 YEAR TEAM G W L SV IP H HR BB K R ER ERA 1999 FIGHTERS 74 1 4 6 77.1 80 18 70 100 46 46 5.37 2000 FIGHTERS 42 8 4 0 97.1 102 22 73 104 74 70 6.49 2001 FIGHTERS 24 5 13 0 129.1 142 46 72 109 105 98 6.79 2002 FIGHTERS 20 2 8 0 53.2 61 19 36 54 49 47 7.94 2003 TIGERS 30 6 10 0 144.2 171 38 36 165 90 82 5.07 A free agent that if I were a MLB GM I would have absolutely no interest in.