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Baseball Analysis Home   Jim Albright / the japanese insider


Japanese Possibilities for the MLB for 2003

A. Methods

The major league equivalents used in this article were arrived at by a comparison of matched at bats for all position players who played in Japan between 1992 and 2001 and also played in the majors at some point. This yielded 41,290 matched at bats, the equivalent of full seasons for approximately 8 teams, one set being in the major league parks facing major league pitchers, and the other in Japanese parks facing Japanese baseball pitching. If you want more details on the method of matched at bats, please see my article estimating Oh’s career home runs, which explains this process in detail.

One thing I did was to make the matches come from the nearest season(s) in time, but in the case of ties, I chose the later season in the case of the major leagues, and the earlier one in the case of Japanese baseball. I did this because the predominant scenario is a player played in the majors, then went to Japan. Once he went to Japan, his career either continued in Japan, or ended without him returning to the majors. This means that the matched seasons for Japan are generally of the same player, but a little older. The rule I used on ties for seasons equally close in time is designed to counteract this effect rather than emphasize it.

The factors derived for the hitters were as follows:

Hits .932
Doubles .980
Triples 1.577
Homers .604
Walks .805

The above statistics were multiplied by the appropriate factor. Then those adjusted stats as well as games and at bats were multiplied by a factor of 162 divided by team games in order to bring the player up to a 162 game base. I left out runs scored and RBI essentially because when players move between the leagues, they often change batting slots, which can have a profound effect on these stats. I left out stolen bases because most of the position players who have played in both places are slow sluggers, which limits the value of any comparison of that data between the two leagues.

The pitching adjustments start with the inverse of the batting adjustments. This is a correct approach because in the case of batters, we were comparing their output in the two separate sets of conditions. When we use the inverse, we are simply comparing how Japanese pitchers in Japanese parks did against these players to how major league pitchers did against the same players in major league parks. The number of opportunities are the same. The approach yields the following results:

Hits 1.073
Homers 1.656
Walks 1.242
Strikeouts 1.054

The factor for runs allowed and earned runs allowed is 1.242, calculated by averaging the following four factors:
     a) runs scored in matched opportunities in Japan divided by runs scored in the majors;
     b) RBI in matched opportunities in Japan divided by RBI in the majors;
     c) Runs created in matched opportunities as calculated by the Johnson formula in Japan divided by runs created as calculated by the same formula in the majors; and
     d) Runs created per game of 25.5 outs by the groups of matched hitters as calculated by the Johnson formula in Japan divided by runs created per game of 25.5 outs in the majors calculated by the same formula.

We’re not yet done with the pitchers, though. Except for 2002, I have actual batters faced totals in Japan. I multiplied this figure by the 162 divided by team games figure to bring the pitchers up to a 162 game schedule. If I had done equivalents for earlier Japanese pitchers, I doubt I’d make that seasonal adjustment due to the extreme loads they were already pitching. However, in the past 15 to 20 years, pitching workloads in Japan have moderated to the point where such an adjustment seems appropriate. For 2002, I estimated the batters faced by mulitplying the innings pitched by 2.836 (the 1992-2001 average in Japan for the calculation of (AB – H) divided by IP) and adding walks, hit batsmen, and hits to that figure. Once we have the adjusted batters faced figure, we deduct the projected hits and walks (I didn’t project hit batsmen) and then divided the result by 2.821 (which is the major league average for approximately the same period of (AB-H) divided by IP) to yield the projected innings pitched.

I then adjusted saves by the projected innings pitched divided by the actual innings pitched. I also had a factor to reduce the number of saves if a reliever (defined as pitchers with less than 3 IP per game pitched) had an ERA over 3. This last factor rarely had a significant impact.

All that remains are wins and losses. We start by adding wins and losses together and multiplying that total by the projected innings pitched divided by the actual innings pitched to get the adjusted decisions figure. We then calculate a projected winning percentage by the formula

21.64 divided by (21.64 plus ((projected ERA times 1.099)squared))

This is an adaptation of Bill James’ Pythagorean theorem, where 1.099 is the major league average ratio for the period of runs to earned runs and 21.64 is the square of the average number of runs scored. The projected winning percentage is multiplied by the adjusted decisions to get the projected wins, and losses are calculated by (1 – projected winning percentage) times adjusted decisions.

One big caveat I must make is that I haven’t made park adjustments to this data, which could seriously skew individual results. The reasons I did not do so are 1) with respect to Japan, the data isn’t available to me, and 2) with respect to the majors we don’t even know in most cases if the player will even come over, much less which team he will sign with.

Batters and Pitchers Covered in this Article
Shinjiro Hiyama   Hideki Irabu Kazuhisa Ishii Tomoaki Kanemoto
Hiroki Kokubo Masumi Kuwata Hideki Matsui Kazuo Matsui
Daisuke Miura Norihiro Nakamura   Hideo Nomo Akinori Otsuka
Takahiro Saeki Takashi Saito Kazuhiro Sasaki   Tsuyoshi Shinjo
Ichiro Suzuki Takanori Suzuki So Taguchi Hiroshi Takamura
Hitoshi Taneda Kenichi Wakatabe Shuji Yoshida  

B. The Batters

I’ve limited my conversions for batters to the period from 1996 and later so we don’t have to worry about the effects of the 1994-1995 major league strike. First, I’ll give three batters who have already come over to the majors so you can get a feel for how well or poorly the system works. Remember, the system deals with what players have done, not what they will do. However, batting records have significant predictive value.

First, we’ll look at Ichiro:


Ichiro Suzuki
Year   Team Games    AB   Hits   2B   3B   HR    BB    Avg   OB Pct    Slg
1996 Blue Wave   162 675 224 29 8 12 56 .332 .383 .452
1997 Blue Wave   162 643 207 36 8 12 60 .322 .379 .459
1998 Blue Wave   162 607 202 43 6 9 42 .333 .376 .469
1999 Blue Wave   124 493 158 32 4 15 43 .320 .375 .492
2000 Blue Wave   126 474 171 25 2 9 52 .361 .424 .477

I'd say the method accurately sees him as hitting for a very high average, but medium to low power


Tsuyoshi Shinjo
Year   Team Games    AB   Hits   2B   3B   HR    BB    Avg   OB Pct    Slg
1996 Tigers   141 508 113 20 8 14 55 .222 .298 .375
1997 Tigers   163 578 125 21 6 14 43 .237 .270 .348
1998 Tigers   158 497 103 25 6 4 24 .207 .244 .306
1999 Tigers   148 565 134 26 13 10 22 .237 .266 .384
2000 Tigers   157 613 159 28 2 20 31 .259 .295 .410

The method realistically assesses him as a rather weak hitter for an outfielder.

So Taguchi
Year   Team Games    AB   Hits   2B   3B   HR    BB    Avg   OB Pct    Slg
1996 Blue Wave   159 634 165 30 2 5 29 .260 .292 .338
1997 Blue Wave   162 686 188 37 8 7 47 .274 .321 .381
1998 Blue Wave   158 596 151 31 3 7 46 .253 .307 .347
1999 Blue Wave   160 629 158 25 1 7 28 .251 .283 .324
2000 Blue Wave   155 611 159 31 5 6 53 .260 .319 .355
2001 Blue Wave   155 524 137 24 10 6 40 .261 .314 .377

The method sees that Taguchi is too weak a hitter to get a starting outfield job in the majors. The Cardinals needed spring training to make that determination.

With the help of Michael Westbay of japanesebaseball.com, I compiled a list of the leading free agents in Japan along with those players reasonable likely to be posted in late 2002. Michael also provided many of the stats which are the basis for these conversions. I included the player's birthdate and his 2002 salary based on a conversion rate of 1 million yen equals $83,000.


Shinjiro Hiyama       BL/TR     pos OF      7-Jan-1969     $600K
Year   Team Games    AB   Hits   2B   3B   HR    BB    Avg   OB Pct    Slg
1996 Tigers   162 578 142 29 0 16 66 .245 .323 .378
1997 Tigers   163 559 119 15 9 17 66 .212 .295 .363
1998 Tigers   146 478 101 21 8 11 45 .211 .279 .355
1999 Tigers   114 342 82 12 4 6 29 .239 .238 .347
2000 Tigers   104 191 39 11 3 3 21 .205 .285 .338
2001 Tigers   140 470 132 28 0 8 27 .280 .319 .393
2002 Tigers   127 481 132 22 4 9 20 .273 .302 .391

This guy would likely come cheap, but a 33 year old outfielder with no power and poor on base percentages has very little value.


Tomoaki Kanemoto       BL/TR     pos OF      4-Mar-1968     $2 million
Year   Team Games    AB   Hits   2B   3B   HR    BB    Avg   OB Pct    Slg
1996 Carp   157 527 147 23 4 20 77 .280 .372 .454
1997 Carp   160 558 157 19 4 24 77 .281 .368 .457
1998 Carp   160 599 141 39 6 15 66 .235 .311 .395
1999 Carp   162 602 164 24 4 25 68 .273 .346 .448
2000 Carp   163 595 174 23 4 22 77 .293 .372 .454
2001 Carp   162 546 160 32 2 17 119 .292 .419 .453
2002 Carp   162 625 160 34 4 20 56 .255 .317 .419

Has moderate power, and generally good on base percentages. However, you've got to be concerned about a 34 year old hitter who had the kind of dropoff he had in 2002.


Hiroki Kokubo       BR/TR     pos 3B      8-Oct-1971     $2 million
Year   Team Games    AB   Hits   2B   3B   HR    BB    Avg   OB Pct    Slg
1996 Hawks   157 596 137 32 6 18 48 .230 .288 .394
1997 Hawks   162 632 178 43 6 26 50 .281 .334 .491
1998 Hawks   20 85 18 5 2 1 3 .210 .236 .364
1999 Hawks   156 558 122 29 4 17 60 .218 .294 .378
2000 Hawks   150 568 152 31 6 22 30 .268 .305 .461
2001 Hawks   160 619 167 35 2 31 58 .270 .332 .481
2002 Hawks   157 587 160 29 0 22 59 .272 .338 .436

As I understand it, he served prison time in 1998 for tax evasion, which made him rusty in 1999. Hits for a decent average and on base percentages with moderate power. At age 31, he doesn't offer a long term solution to a team's thired base problems, but at $2-3 million a year, he's probably worth a shot if you need a short term solution to a problem at the hot corner.

Hideki Matsui       BL/TR     pos OF      12-Jun-1974     $5.1 million
Year   Team Games    AB   Hits   2B   3B   HR    BB    Avg   OB Pct    Slg
1996 Giants   162 607 178 42 1 29 71 .293 .367 .506
1997 Giants   162 581 161 21 0 27 97 .277 .380 .452
1998 Giants   162 584 159 28 5 25 100 .272 .379 .464
1999 Giants   162 565 160 29 4 30 90 .283 .381 .509
2000 Giants   162 569 168 39 2 30 102 .295 .402 .531
2001 Giants   162 557 173 27 5 25 97 .310 .412 .514
2002 Giants   162 579 180 30 2 35 106 .311 .418 .551

It's now official that he's coming to the majors, and you've got to like a .300 average, .400 on base percentage, and over .500 slugging. It would probably be best to have him bat third in the majors, to keep him focused on using his broad range of skills rather than see him swing for the fences and possibly mess himself up in the process.

Kazuo Matsui       BB/TR     pos SS      23-Oct-1975     $2.1 million
Year   Team Games    AB   Hits   2B   3B   HR    BB    Avg   OB Pct    Slg
1996 Lions   162 589 156 27 9 1 14 .264 .281 .344
1997 Lions   162 691 199 27 25 5 43 .288 .329 .420
1998 Lions   162 690 200 44 9 7 53 .290 .341 .410
1999 Lions   162 647 199 33 8 11 54 .308 .361 .433
2000 Lions   162 660 198 46 21 17 44 .300 .344 .508
2001 Lions   162 639 183 31 4 17 43 .287 .332 .426
2002 Lions   162 673 208 52 11 25 49 .309 .356 .531

May be posted in 2002, a free agent in 2003, or stay in Japan until the end of his career. Nobody, not even apparently Kazuo himself knows as I write this. Still, he's likely one of the best five shortstops in the world of baseball at the present time, along with A-Rod, Nomar, Jeter, and Tejada. The 1997 and 2000 triples estimates are probably too high due to the size of the adjustment factor on triples. However, he will likely push double digit triples totals in almost any major league park.

Norihiro Nakamura       BR/TR     pos 3B      24-Jul-1973     $4.2 million
Year   Team Games    AB   Hits   2B   3B   HR    BB    Avg   OB Pct    Slg
1996 Buffaloes   137 512 130 17 2 20 39 .254 .307 .409
1997 Buffaloes   154 546 122 26 5 14 52 .223 .291 .365
1998 Buffaloes   158 577 140 17 2 23 71 .242 .326 .399
1999 Buffaloes   162 617 150 28 0 22 76 .243 .326 .398
2000 Buffaloes   162 571 148 31 0 28 77 .258 .347 .460
2001 Buffaloes   162 607 181 29 0 32 97 .298 .395 .505
2002 Buffaloes   162 591 162 31 2 29 80 .274 .360 .480

He's a better player than Kokubo, but far more expensive. I'd be reluctant to put up $4.5 million or more a year he likely can command in Japan. He's a player for whom economics, not talent, is the reason he will likely stay in Japan.

Takahiro Saeki       BL/TL     pos 1B      18-Apr-1970     $900K
Year   Team Games    AB   Hits   2B   3B   HR    BB    Avg   OB Pct    Slg
1996 Bay Stars   142 486 131 27 10 5 33 .270 .317 .394
1997 Bay Stars   127 318 77 14 2 3 28 .243 .304 .326
1998 Bay Stars   130 365 98 24 3 7 30 .270 .325 .404
1999 Bay Stars   134 436 125 21 2 7 33 .288 .338 .394
2000 Bay Stars   146 528 127 26 0 5 40 .241 .294 .319
2001 Bay Stars   162 567 160 19 4 10 43 .282 .332 .380
2002 Bay Stars   72 242 67 20 0 1 10 .276 .306 .377

Not good enough to start at first base in the majors

Takanori Suzuki       BL/TR     pos OF      10-Apr-1972     $1.5 million
Year   Team Games    AB   Hits   2B   3B   HR    BB    Avg   OB Pct    Slg
1996 Bay Stars   138 442 123 18 0 10 47 .278 .348 .479
1997 Bay Stars   150 574 179 35 8 15 46 .312 .363 .479
1998 Bay Stars   157 617 193 35 11 12 59 .314 .374 .464
1999 Bay Stars   161 650 199 35 11 13 55 .306 .360 .455
2000 Bay Stars   161 662 183 39 8 14 42 .277 .320 .424
2001 Bay Stars   141 525 154 25 2 4 48 .294 .352 .372
2002 Bay Stars   115 440 115 23 0 6 16 .262 .288 .358

The method sees him as having been able to be a starting major league outfielder from 1997 to 2000. It also sees he has experienced significant and consistent decline over the past 4 seasons. If I were a major league GM, I'd pass on any 30 year old who 1) was not of major league starting quality in his last season and 2) shows such a pattern of decline.

Hitoshi Taneda       BR/TR     pos OF      18-Jul-1971     $500K
Year   Team Games    AB   Hits   2B   3B   HR    BB    Avg   OB Pct    Slg
1996 Dragons   50 133 22 1 0 1 7 .165 .207 .192
1997 Dragons   10 16 1 1 0 0 1 .063 .118 .125
1998 Dragons   52 120 31 5 2 2 8 .261 .306 .385
1999 Dragons   52 61 11 3 2 0 6 .183 .253 .294
2000 Dragons   122 317 93 16 6 5 24 .293 .343 .429
2001 Dragons/Bay Stars   123 294 174 13 4 3 21 .253 .304 .351
2002 Bay Stars   134 459 108 19 0 4 20 .235 .267 .302

The only season he even resembled a regular platoon outfielder was 2000. He's now 31, and in 2002, he didn't play well enough to merit a major league job. Needless to say, if I were a major league GM, I'd have no interest in him.

C. Pitchers

Pitchers’ records have far less predictive value than hitters’ records do, in large measure because pitchers so often hurt their arms. I should also note that the translation method never lets a pitcher pile up wins on good run support or losses on poor run support. Therefore, won-loss records are somewhat unrealistically bunched.

I also ran the records for two pitchers back to the 1992 start of the data used to determine the conversion factors. Those pitchers are Nomo and Irabu, both of whom would really give no proper basis for comparison if I held to starting the conversions in 1996. Of the four most prominent Japanese pitching imports to the majors, only Sasaki clearly matches the conversion of his Japanese accomplishments. Nomo was worked hard in 1990 and 1991, and it was already starting to show in 1992. He had a dramatically reduced workload in 1994, which seems to have restored his arm in time for his major league rookie season of 1995. Irabu probably had the talent the conversion suggests, but undermined it with poor training habits. It is also possible he pitched in a very favorable park when he was in Japan, which would help his stats. The conversion for Ishii does capture the ups and downs he experienced in the majors in 2002.


Kazuhisa Ishii
Year   Team Games   Won   Lost   Saves   Innings   Hits   HR    BB    K    Runs    ER    ERA
1996 Swallows   10 1 5 0 31.0 37 12 34 34 29 28 8.07
1997 Swallows   22 11 4 0 126.2 94 10 75 152 42 37 2.64
1998 Swallows   34 10 12 0 206.2 192 24 156 305 116 107 4.67
1999 Swallows   28 4 11 0 138.1 158 32 106 205 112 106 6.87
2000 Swallows   35 12 9 0 195.0 176 30 109 266 80 79 3.64
2001 Swallows   31 9 10 0 183.0 168 34 118 211 106 95 4.66

Hideki Irabu
Year   Team Games   Won   Lost   Saves   Innings   Hits   HR    BB    K    Runs    ER    ERA
1992 Orions   35 0 5 0 77.0 104 4 57 72 59 51 5.96
1993 Orions   40 7 8 1 148.0 167 23 90 210 91 76 4.60
1994 Orions   24 13 10 0 189.0 160 23 102 221 84 76 3.62
1995 Orions   31 15 9 0 216.1 185 17 99 279 96 78 3.26
1996 Orions   29 13 8 0 178.0 144 14 91 219 87 65 3.28

Hideo Nomo
Year   Team Games   Won   Lost   Saves   Innings   Hits   HR    BB    K    Runs    ER    ERA
1992 Buffaloes   36 15 13 0 229.0 201 27 181 299 113 99 3.89
1993 Buffaloes   40 11 19 0 250.0 269 45 229 362 164 155 5.56
1994 Buffaloes   15 6 7 0 102.0 90 13 94 116 60 50 4.41

Kazuhiro Sasaki
Year   Team Games   Won   Lost   Saves   Innings   Hits   HR    BB    K    Runs    ER    ERA
1996 Bay Stars   49 4 3 28 55.2 49 12 25 105 26 25 4.00
1997 Bay Stars   59 3 0 43 68.2 32 12 25 125 9 9 1.17
1998 Bay Stars   61 1 1 52 64.1 41 8 19 99 10 6 0.83
1999 Bay Stars   28 1 1 21 25.2 24 2 9 43 7 7 2.61

Now for the pitchers who are free agents or who are reasonably likely to be posted in 2002:

Daisuke Miura      BR/TR     25-Dec-1973      $1.2 million
Year   Team Games   Won   Lost   Saves   Innings   Hits   HR    BB    K    Runs    ER    ERA
1996 Bay Stars   42 3 11 0 130.1 202 35 85 133 127 111 7.69
1997 Bay Stars   31 6 8 0 151.2 145 18 76 163 82 79 4.68
1998 Bay Stars   30 9 11 0 165.1 178 24 89 151 95 83 4.54
1999 Bay Stars   36 6 13 0 182.1 224 44 76 164 137 124 6.10
2000 Bay Stars   29 9 10 0 178.1 198 44 48 154 95 88 4.43
2001 Bay Stars   30 9 8 0 175.0 170 27 76 165 80 77 3.98
2002 Bay Stars   22 7 8 0 124.0 134 23 40 122 66 62 4.48

He might come over for fourth or fifth starting pitcher money, and could well be worth that much. However, his 2002 drop in innings pitched would concern me and makes me think such a move might be a gamble. Certainly, you'd want to check out why the drop occurred and carefully investigate how healthy his arm is.

Takashi Saito      BL/TR     14-Feb-1970      $1.5 million
Year   Team Games   Won   Lost   Saves   Innings   Hits   HR    BB    K    Runs    ER    ERA
1996 Bay Stars   35 10 12 0 218.0 210 64 97 271 124 111 4.59
1998 Bay Stars   41 10 9 1 157.0 169 18 34 128 73 70 4.01
1999 Bay Stars   31 7 11 0 203.2 229 64 46 158 124 121 5.33
2000 Bay Stars   23 4 13 0 119.2 158 34 54 123 110 106 7.95
2001 Bay Stars   58 7 1 29 68.2 63 11 20 73 17 17 2.26
2002 Bay Stars   45 1 2 21 50.2 46 10 22 56 24 19 3.31

He has flowered in a relief role and could be quite valuable as a setup man and possibly even as a closer.

Hiroshi Takamura      BR/TR     2-Sep-1969      $350K
Year   Team Games   Won   Lost   Saves   Innings   Hits   HR    BB    K    Runs    ER    ERA
1996 Buffaloes   22 5 10 0 131.2 150 21 77 108 94 85 5.81
1997 Buffaloes   28 5 13 0 147.0 220 18 91 120 122 115 7.01
1998 Buffaloes   30 6 17 0 163.2 207 40 110 105 135 128 7.04
1999 Buffaloes   19 3 6 0 90.1 121 22 75 61 73 64 6.38
2000 Buffaloes   20 2 6 0 70.1 84 12 52 52 57 55 7.05
2001 Buffaloes   24 4 10 0 92.2 133 34 72 83 83 73 7.11
2002 Buffaloes   34 6 13 0 137.2 181 42 70 118 96 90 5.91

His record doesn't suggest he'd be successful in any pitching role in the majors except for batting practice pitcher.

Kenichi Wakatabe      BR/TR     5-Aug-1969      $580 K
Year   Team Games   Won   Lost   Saves   Innings   Hits   HR    BB    K    Runs    ER    ERA
1996 Hawks   29 2 0 0 29.1 52 6 8 21 26 26 8.06
1997 Hawks   42 4 11 0 123.1 193 24 51 80 98 94 6.84
1998 Hawks   8 0 0 0 6.0 10 2 4 4 7 7 11.16
1999 Hawks   31 8 9 0 170.2 197 36 63 144 98 86 4.55
2000 Hawks   37 7 14 0 178.0 212 40 79 130 129 124 6.24
2001 Hawks   25 3 7 0 110.2 166 38 33 80 80 75 6.07
2002 Hawks   30 10 9 0 152.2 189 19 52 117 85 70 4.14

His 1999 and 2002 seasons look decent at first glance, but none of the other seasons do. If you look closer, he's always giving up lots of HR and over a hit an inning. That's not the kind of qualifications you want. Since he's 33, I wouldn't get excited about his major league potential.

Shuji Yoshida      BL/TL     29-Nov-1966      $1 million
Year   Team Games   Won   Lost   Saves   Innings   Hits   HR    BB    K    Runs    ER    ERA
1996 Hawks   1 0 0 0 0.2 7 2 2 1 6 6 83.02
1997 Hawks   59 4 3 3 42.0 42 2 30 43 25 22 4.78
1998 Hawks   76 3 4 11 59.0 58 8 28 63 21 19 2.95
1999 Hawks   70 0 1 1 55.0 68 0 33 65 25 25 4.14
2000 Hawks   83 9 3 1 99.1 109 8 48 91 51 48 4.31
2001 Hawks   79 3 6 0 70.2 99 13 52 85 55 37 4.75
2002 Hawks   72 7 5 3 78.2 91 17 40 83 42 39 4.43

His record suggests he could find a middle reliever role in a bullpen, but not much more than that.

Akinori Otsuka      BR/TR     13-Jan-1972      $1.1 million
Year   Team Games   Won   Lost   Saves   Innings   Hits   HR    BB    K    Runs    ER    ERA
1997 Buffaloes   62 4 5 7 88.1 57 4 69 161 33 28 2.88
1998 Buffaloes   59 3 2 38 60.2 55 10 37 94 28 19 2.87
1999 Buffaloes   30 1 4 7 33.2 31 2 15 40 18 13 3.58
2000 Buffaloes   47 1 3 26 45.1 40 6 19 62 16 16 3.25
2001 Buffaloess   56 2 5 29 63.1 52 13 22 100 36 36 5.10
2002 Buffaloes   47 2 1 24 46.2 27 8 4 66 10 9 1.66

He did have a poor 2001 season, but other than that, he would seem to be good enough to be a solid setup man in the majors and maybe even a closer.

Masumi Kuwata      BR/TR     1-Apr-1968      $1.2 million
Year   Team Games   Won   Lost   Saves   Innings   Hits   HR    BB    K    Runs    ER    ERA
1997 Giants   31 7 11 0 153.2 164 30 55 132 101 88 5.14
1998 Giants   32 8 14 0 194.1 254 34 69 147 131 122 5.65
1999 Giants   38 6 12 5 147.1 176 34 85 126 101 95 5.82
2000 Giants   36 5 8 5 89.2 133 12 42 62 64 64 6.42
2001 Giants   19 3 7 2 53.0 70 8 27 38 42 39 6.58
2002 Giants   27 12 6 0 163.2 171 25 55 132 73 56 3.08

Hurt his leg in 1996, and went through several years where he wasn't of major league quality before putting it back together in 2002. Since he's already 34, if I were a major league GM, I'd only be interested if 1) he would take an incentive laden contract with little guaranteed money, and/or 2) he would be willing to become a setup man (or a closer if he pitched well enough). I don't know if he could or would make the switch effectively, and I'd certainly want my scouts' opinions on the feasibility of such a move. The reason I find this possibility intriguing is Kuwata was a fabulous pitcher in 1986-1990 and in 1994 in Japan. This means he has a real upside, but only if he stays healthy. The setup or closer role could be used to provide a greater probability of keeping him healthy and therefore improve the likelihood of tapping his upside potential. However, I suspect economics strongly favor his staying in Japan.

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