Strasburg
- The Next Feller?
Salute to
a Hero
WARTIME SERVICE ADJUSTMENTS
by John B Holway
There are basically three ways to estimate, or adjust for, the wartime service
years:
1. The shoulder
method take the years before and after the war and assume the missing
ones would have been about the same.
This is fairly accurate if a player is on an almost straight-line
course up to, or down from, the pinnacle of his
career. This would apply to
most other players missing ages.
2. The mountain top
method this assumes the missing years would have been the pinnacle
ages; it attempts to estimate how much above the shoulders they might have
been. This is the only valid
way to estimate the cost of World War II to Williams and Bob
Feller.
3. Adjustment
deduct the same ages from everybody else.
Most estimates use #1.
Pitchers
Pete Alexander
Alexander, the only
big-name player to serve in World War I, had 373 lifetime wins, tied for
third on the all-time list. But
he lost a potentially huge year in combat as an artilleryman in France in
1918, coming immediately after three straight 30-win seasons and three straight
years of ERAs under 2.00. He
was 31 years old. It might actually
have cost him more, as the war apparently either started or aggravated a
serious drinking problem.
Petes shoulder years averaged 27
wins. Since he won two games
before leaving in 1918, I have no problem with giving him 25 additional
victories. It could have been
more if we consider the negative effects of the war on his later
career.
Lifetime wins
373
Missing year
+
25
___
Total
398
(Incidentally, Captain Eddie Grant, former infielder for the Giants
and Reds, was leading a rescue team to find the lost battalion
when he was killed by artillery shrapnel in the Argonne forest about one
month after Williams was born. He
was the only major leaguer to die
in the war.)
The list of big leaguers in World War II is much longer.
Ruffing, Lyons, Wynn, French
Red Ruffing won 29 games in the
two seasons before answering the call.
He won seven in 1945 after his
discharge. I believe he could
have won 35 or more in the missing two-plus
years.
(He would have won 300 anyway if he hadn't spent the first half of
his career with the then lowly Red Sox. The old first baseman, Joe Judge,
said, We always thought Red was dogging it, that
is, deliberately pitching badly in hopes of getting traded. If so, it
worked. As soon as the
Yankees got him, Reds victory totals and his ERA improved
dramatically.)
Early
Wynn won eight games in 1944 and eight in 1946. So obviously
he should get eight for 1945.
Ted Lyons was 42 when the
Navy called him in 1943. And he was still winning. He pitched once a week,
every Sunday, and he could still win 15 games a year. He won a handful in
46 after he came back. I give him 30 more wins for his three war-time
years, to go with his total of 260 in the record
book. If I stretch it to 40
instead of 30, Ted would have entered the 300-club. (Joe McCarthy said Lyons
would have won 400 if he had been with the Yankees.)
Larry French was 15-4 with the
Dodgers in 1942 at the age of 34.
I see no reason why he couldn't have won 35 in the next three years,
which he spent as an officer in the Navy, participating in the Normandy landing.
Added to his 197 lifetime victories, that would make
232. Larry didn't return to
baseball; he stayed in the Navy and made a career out of
it. Several men in Cooperstown
won less than 232 games.
French
Ruffing Lyons
Wynn
Ages
34-36
39-41
42-45
20
Lifetime wins
197
273
260
300
Est missing years
+
35
+
35
+
30
+ 8
___
____
____
___
Total
232
308
290
308
Warren Spahn
Spahn won more games than any other left-hander,
363. Without a war, I believe he could he might have won
400.
Warren enjoyed two good years in the lower minors before deciding
to enlist in 1943 at the age of 22.
I believe he needed a year in Triple A and probably would have been
ready for the majors in 1944. I
think he deserves at least eight big league wins in 44 and 16 in
45. That's 24.
Several combat campaigns later, Warren returned to the Braves at the age
of 25 mid-way through the 1946 season. He missed the first three months because
he accepted a battlefield commission that required him to stay in Service
an additional year. (Stupidest thing I ever did in my life.)
Its easy to award him eight more wins for the missing months. That
gives him 32.
It would put him third on the all-time list, behind Cy Young (511) and Walter
Johnson (417).
Could he have won 400?
I don't know about that.
I matured a lot in three years.
I think I was better equipped to handle major league hitters at 25
than I was at 22. Also, I pitched until I was
44. Maybe I wouldn't have been
able to do that otherwise.
On the other hand, the war might have helped Warren win
more
games. He was once asked
if he had ever felt as much pressure as he did in the World
Series. After you've been
in combat, he said, nothing in baseball is
pressure.
Lifetime wins
363
Estimated missing
years
+ 32
___
Total
395
Spahn, however, was conservative. He wondered if he had pitched throughout
those young, wartime ages, he might not have lasted as long as he did at
the end.
Korea
Whitey Ford lost ages 22-23, Curt Simmons, 21-22, and Don Newcome
26-28. Using the shoulder method,
I come up with the following:
Ford
Simmons
Newcombe
Record
book
236
193
149
Military
36
17
34
___
___
___
Total
272
210
183
Bob Feller
When Bob left for duty, he had by far the most wins and strikeouts
of any 22 year-old ever.
Victories through age
22
Strikeouts through 22
Bob
Feller
107
Bob
Feller
1223
Babe
Ruth
83
Bert
Blyleven
815
Dwight
Gooden
73
Dwight
Gooden
744
Christy
Mathewson
64
Walter Johnson 717
Bert
Blyleven
63 Christy
Mathewson
662
Walter Johnson
57
Sam
McDowell
640
Fernando Valenzuela
49
JR
Richards
507
Tommy John
45
Vida
Blue
471
CC
Sabathia
43
CC
Sabathia
461
JR
Richards
40
Babe
Ruth
413
Sam
McDowell
34
Ferguson
Jenkins
386
Christy
Mathewson
34
Sandy
Koufax
313
Roger Clemens
9
Pedro
Martinez 269
Greg
Maddux
8
Fernando Valenzuela
248
Nolan
Ryan
6
Jim
Palmer
245
Cy
Young
0
Nolan
Ryan
231
Pete Alexander
0
Lefty
Grove
0
Tom
Seaver
0
Steve
Carlton
0
Randy Johnson
0
Feller was one of thousands of young men but the only big league player
- who lined up at recruiting offices the day after Pearl Harbor. He didn't
have to go. His father was dying, and he would be the sole support of his
mother. People told him he was
crazy; he could have stayed and pitched another year. I asked him about that
over two Heinekens in 1957. He was emphatic: I've made a lot of mistakes
in my life. That's not one of
them.
How many victories and strikeouts did the war cost
him? He estimated 100 wins and
1,000 whiffs. Those are good round numbers and entirely
reasonable. Here is how other
greats did in Fellers missing ages, 23 through 26:
Wins
Strikeouts
Walter Johnson
122
Sam
McDowell
1023
Christie
Mathewson
110
Roger Clemens
1015
Cy
Young
106
Ferguson
Jenkins
994
Dizzy
Dean
102
Tom
Seaver
985
Robin
Roberts
92
Walter Johnson
978
Ferguson
Jenkins
83
Pedro Martinez
960
Tom
Seaver
79
Rube
Waddell
953
Roger Clemens
79
Bert
Blyleven
883
Jim
Palmer
77
Sandy
Kouvax
855
Juan
Marichal
77
Nolan
Ryan
778
Greg
Maddux
69
Christy
Mathewson
774
Bob
Feller
5
Bob
Feller
59
Wins
Adjustment Method
We can subtract these ages from everyone else.
Walter Johnson would not only lose his 400 victories, he would come in under
300. The exalted Mathewson
373 would finish with 263 in a close race with Feller.
Ages
Lifetime -
23-26
= Adjusted
Cy
Young
511
-
106
405
Warren
Spahn
400*
-
8
392
Pete Alexander
398*
-
69
329
Phil
Niekro
315
-
2
313
Walter Johnson
417
-
122
295
Gaylord
Perry
314
-
24
290
Eddie
Plank
326
-
57
289
Greg
Maddux
355
-
69
286
Randy Johnson
295
-
10
285 (a)
Red
Ruffing
308*
-
30
278
Lefty
Grove
300
-
23
277
Roger Clemens
354x
-
79
275
Steve
Carlton
328
-
60
269
Nolan
Ryan
324
-
57
267
Don
Sutton
324
-
60
264
Christy
Mathewson
373
-
110
263
Bob Feller
266
-
5
261
Early
Wynn
300
-
46
254
Tom
Glavine
305
-
64
241 (a)
Tom
Seaver
311
-
79
232
Bob Gibson
253
-
34
221
Ferguson
Jenkins
284
-
67
217
Robin
Roberts
286
-
92
194
Jim
Palmer
266
-
77
189
* includes their own wartime
adjustments.
** active through
2008
x accused of steroid use
It was a travesty of fairness when the fans and experts did not elect Feller
to the All-Century team in 1999, while electing Bob Gibson, 251 wins, and
Sandy Koufax, 165, with no missing war-time
service.
Obviously they didnt
know their history.
Strikeouts
Feller would rank seventh, just nine Ks behind Walter
Johnson. Note that Nolan Ryan
fanned 383 at age 26.
Lifetime
Ages
23-26
Adjusted
Nolan
Ryan
5714
974
4740
Roger Clemens
4672x
1015
3657
Steve Carlton
4136
726
3410
Bert
Blyleven
3701
883
2818
Tom
Seaver
3640
985
2655
Walter Johnson
3509
978
2531
Bob Feller
2581
59
2522
Shoulder Method
This
assumes that the two years before and the two years after Fellers missing
ages were about the same as his four missing ones in between. We then simply
add them to his lifetime figures.
Wins
Strikeouts
Lifetime
261
2522
Ages 22-3,
27-8
105
1065
___
____
366
3587
This would move Bob up to sixth on the lifetime lists (fifth if
Clemens strikeouts are disqualified):
Wins
Strikeouts
Young
511
Ryan
5714
Johnson
417
Clemens
4672x (steroids)
Spahn
400*
Carlton
4136
Alexander
398*
Blyleven
3701
Mathewson
373
Seaver
3640
Feller
366*
Feller
3587*
* Includes estimated wartime wins
All the big winners except Spahn played in an earlier era, when high victory
totals were not uncommon. All
the big strikeout pitchers played in recent years, when batters fanned about
twice as often.
Meantime it was a travesty of fairness when the fans did not elect Feller
to the All-Century team in 1999, while electing Bob Gibson, who had only
251 wins, and Sandy Koufax (165) with no missing war-time
service.
Obviously they didnt
know their history.
Mountain Top Method
Are the shoulder years really equal to the missing ages,
23 through 26? They were
mountain-top years for Mathewson, Johnson, Young, and many
others. I believe they would
have been for Feller too.
A quick answer is to show the top winners and strikeout artists in each age-range
side-by-side:
Wins
Ages 24-26
Ages
21-22, 27-28
Johnson
122
Mathewson
106
Mathewson
110
Feller
98
Young
106
Johnson
90
Dean
102
Roberts
68
Roberts
92
Clemens
65
Seaver
79
Blyleven
63
Clemens
79
Martinez
63
Palmer
77
Young
61
Alexander
69
Koufax
60
Maddux
69
Maddux
60
Mathewson and Johnson both won more than 30 games twice in Bobs
missing ages -- Johnsons high was 36. In more recent times Denny McLain
won 30 at the age of 24. (Dizzy
Dean was credited with 30 at age 24, but two were actually saves.)
Strikeouts
Here's how others did in Bobs wartime ages compared to the shoulder
years before and after:
Wartime
Shoulders
Wartime
23-26
21-22,
27-28
Factor
Jenkins
919
547
1.68
Clemens
933
650
1.44
Seaver
951
670
1.42
Ryan
974
778
1.25
Martinez
960
852
1.13
Johnson
978
888
1.10
Koufax
855
782
1.09
Blyleven
883
840
1.05
Mathewson
744
834
.89
In other words, Jenkins was 68% better in Bobs wartime years than in
his shoulder years; Mathewson was 11% worse.
A 10% increase, equal to that of Johnson or Koufax, would give Feller 105
additional strikeouts and would move him ahead of Seaver in the all-time
list. Twenty-five percent, similar to Ryans, would give
him an additional 273 for a
total 3850 and leapfrog him ahead of Blyleven into fourth
place.
I'm going to go with 25% and let the reader pick another number if
he wishes.
And remember: Feller and the other old-timers did not pitch in todays
free-swinging era. In Ryans big year, 1985, the average NL better fanned
30% more often per at bat than in Fellers 1946 AL season. If Bob had
pitched under those conditions, without a war, his total would be over 4,700,
ahead of Carlton and second only to Ryan.
Strikeouts
Wins
How much better were other pitchers in Bobs war-time ages, compared
to the shoulders? By dividing
the shoulders into the missing ages, we get a
factor. For example, Roger Clemens
won 44% more:
23-26 21-22, 27-28
war-time
shoulders
difference
Juan
Marichal
77
53
1.45
Roger Clemens
79
55
1.44
Ferguson
Jenkins
67
48
1.40
Tom
Glavine
74
54
1.37
Walter Johnson
122
90
1.36
Robin
Roberts
92
68
1.35
Eddie
Plank
49
37
1.32
Nolan
Ryan
57
48
1.19
Pete Alexander
69
58
1.19
Greg
Maddux
69
62
1.11
Rube
Waddell
67
61
1.10
Sandy
Koufax
48
60
.80
The evidence heavily suggests that Fellers missing seasons were probably
mountain-top years, rising like Everest above the foothills on either
side. One cannot just draw a
straight line from 1941 to 1946 and conclude that Bobs career would
have run straight across the foothills without climbing the mountain in
between.
It is not too much to award Feller another 10-20 victories above his
98 shoulder wins. Thus, instead
of 366 victories, as above, he might have won 376 or
386. Could he have reached
400?
If I was close, you bet I'd have stayed in, with the right team,
and gone for it.
And remember: Bob also saved 21 games, something the modern hurlers almost
never do. He probably had some
Holds too.
Feller feels, as I do, that he could have won 30 games at least once
in the four wartime seasons. And
he feels he was capable of one or more additional
no-hitters.
Sure. How many one-hitters
do I have?
The answer is
12.
Wins
If one draws a straight line from age 22 to 27, Johnson would lose
two 30-win seasons and Mathewson one.