[Editor's Note: The folowing article is an outline of players to be profiled in the near future with basic notes by Jeff. Please email him at JMordock@baseballguru.com with any comments, suggestions or information that would be valuable to him in building a case for or against any of these players. You can also contact him to suggest other players for consideration.]
NOW PLAYING AT A BALLPARK NEAR YOU: A HALL OF FAMER
by Jeff Mordock
Using the Bill James' Hall of Fame Monitor (HOFM) as my guide, I decided
to evaluate the Hall of Fame chances for 45 active players. Any player on
a 2002 Opening Day roster and scored at least 60 on the HOFM was eligible
for consideration. Players are listed by age and ranked in three categories,
First Ballot Hall of Famer, Eventual Hall of Famer, and Too Early.
Rickey Henderson
Age 44
HOFM 189
Status: First Ballot Hall of Famer
The all-time leader in stolen bases, runs, and walks could be a unanimous
selection.
Tim 'Rock' Raines
Age 43
HOFM 91
Status: Eventual Hall of Famer
Raines' resume includes over 2,500 hits, 808 stolen bases, and a solid .295
career batting average. Entering the 2002 season, he ranks fifth on the all-time
stolen base list, far ahead of Honus Wagner and Joe Morgan. Raines also has
more hits than Morgan, Richie Ashburn, and Reggie Jackson. Critics charge
that Raines padded his stats by playing well past his prime. However, Raines
was effective as late as 1998, hitting .290 in 321 at-bats for a Yankees'
team that won 114 games. Raines won't be first ballot, but he will be elected.
John Franco
Age 42
HOFM 115
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
Franco saved more games than any player except Lee Smith, but there isn't
much else on his resume. He never saved 40 or more games in a season. His
highest ranking in Cy Young award voting was a 7th place finish in 1994.
Franco has only two Rolaids Relief Awards and three save titles. Although
those awards are impressive, Franco should have a stronger resume considering
his career's length.
Andres 'The Big Cat' Galarraga
Age 42
HOFM 102
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
Galarraga produced several strong seasons during his early days in Montreal
and later in Colorado. However, he is missing the big numbers that writers
use to justify votes. He will not reach 2,200 hits and will narrowly pass
400 home runs. Galarraga possesses only one home run title and one batting
championship. Writers may argue that his career numbers would have been better
if he didn't miss the 1999 season for cancer treatment. However, his career
numbers would also be better if he didn't have several mediocre years in
the early 1990s.
Roger 'Rocket' Clemens
Age 40
HOFM 260
Status: First Ballot Hall of Famer
There is little Clemens needs to accomplish to pad his Hall of Fame resume.
He could win his 300th game in late 2002 and will eventually pass Steve Carlton
to rank second on the all-time strikeout list.
Edgar Martinez
Age 40
HOFM 130
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
I would not vote for Martinez, but I believe the writers will anoint him
Hall of Fame status. Martinez is an often-injured career DH with only two
batting titles and low power numbers. However, I think voters will cast their
ballots for a player with a career batting average above .300 and ten .300
seasons.
Very few will realize that Martinez's high batting totals mostly occurred
during seasons in which Martinez accumulated less than 180 hits and did not
exceed 550 at-bats. In addition, the low number of at-bats will prevent Martinez
from solidifying his career numbers.
Mark Grace
Age 39
HOFM 70
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
I had a poster of Mark Grace in my high school locker. Unfortunately we are
not voting for players that I admire. Grace has no chance of 3,000 hits and
his highest batting clip was .336. His numbers are only slightly better than
Don Mattingly's and Keith Hernandez's career totals.
Randy 'The Big Unit' Johnson
Age 39
HOFM 238.5
Status: First Ballot Hall of Famer
Before the 2002 season is completed, Randy Johnson will leap ahead of Don
Sutton to rank sixth on the all-time strikeout list. By the end of his career,
Johnson could have more strikeouts than Roger Clemens. He will finish with
over 250 wins, which is good enough for a pitcher with an impressive collection
of Cy Young Awards, ERA titles, and strikeout numbers.
Barry Larkin
Age 39
HOFM 102
Status: Eventual Hall of Famer
The Hall of Fame voters insist defense matters. If so, it will be hard to
keep Larkin, his three Gold Gloves, and impressive fielding numbers away
from Cooperstown. Larkin also owns an MVP trophy, World Series ring, and
the distinction of being the first 30/30 shortstop. Larkin's career numbers
are better than Hall of Famers PeeWee Reese, Phil Rizzuto, and Lou Boudreau.
If Larkin rebounds with a strong 2002, he could raise his lifetime average
above .300.
Fred McGriff
Age 39
HOFM 93
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
At age 38, McGriff had a solid 2001 season and all signs indicate a strong
2002 campaign and 500 home runs. There are many factors to sway voters in
his favor. He powered the great Braves teams of the mid-90s, his career batting
average is respectable, and he is a feared power hitter. However,
McGriff never produced an awesome power year, peaking at 37 home runs in
1993 and only captured the home run title twice. In addition, McGriff has
little else on his resume besides his power numbers. He is just too
one-dimensional to enter the Hall of Fame.
Barry Bonds
Age 38
HOFM 228.5
Status: First Ballot Hall of Famer
Among active players, no one is more qualified than Barry Bonds. He has
consistently dominated the game and improves with age.
Kevin Brown
Age 38
HOFM 84
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
Brown has a career winning percentage that ranks higher than both Tom Seaver
and Stan Coveleski. However, he has never accomplished the big items necessary
for Cooperstown admission. He never won a strikeout title or Cy Young award.
Winning 225 games may prove difficult, especially for an injury-prone player
pitching for a Dodgers team that will struggle in 2002.
Rafael Palmeiro
Age 38
HOFM 120
Status: First Ballot Hall of Famer
When Palmeiro retires his career numbers will be awesome. He will easily
pass 500 home runs and come very close to 3,000 hits. In fact, there is a
small chance that Palmeiro could reach 600 home runs. He is already among
the career leaders in games, at-bats, hits, home runs, RBIs, walks, and total
bases.
Craig Biggio
Age 37
HOFM 89
Status: Eventual Hall of Famer
If Biggio's career ended today, it would be hard to enshrine him. He produced
several strong seasons, but never had a dominating season. His career totals
are solid, but not spectacular and compare to players such as Alan Trammel
and Tony Fernandez. I believe he will play long enough to improve his career
numbers, but they will not be strong enough to enshrine him on the first
ballot.
Tom Glavine
Age 37
HOFM 122.5
Status: Eventual Hall of Famer
Glavine's career win total is already equivalent to the totals of Jim Bunning
and Catfish Hunter. He owns more Cy Youngs, but fewer strikeouts. Glavine
will also near 300 wins. The biggest hurdle facing Glavine is the argument
that he was not the best pitcher on his own team. That argument plagued Don
Sutton for several years. However, Glavine produced more dominant seasons
than Sutton, so that point is be moot.
Greg Maddux
Age 37
HOFM 205.5
Status: First Ballot of Famer
There is no logical argument against electing Maddux on the first ballot.
Matt Williams
Age 37
HOFM 70
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
At the end of the 1999 season, Williams needed a big push to improve his
Hall of Fame chances. Yet his production continued to fall as a result of
two injury-plagued seasons. At his current pace, 400 home runs will be a
stretch and the fact that he will start 2002 on the disabled list will further
limit his chances.
Kenny Lofton
Age 36
HOFM: 88
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
Only twice in his career has Lofton exceeded 150 games in a season. This
has prevented him from chalking decent career numbers. He is not close to
2,000 hits. Lofton's career average will eventually sink below .300. Outside
of stolen bases, Lofton never ranked among the league leaders in any category
and his stolen base numbers continue to drop significantly.
Curt Schilling
Age 36
HOFM 87
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
Schilling has several arguments in his favor. He was the staff ace for some
very lousy Phillies' teams. His strikeout totals and postseason numbers are
impressive. Unfortunately there are plenty of non-Hall of Famers ahead of
him on the all-time strikeout list. He has a low career win total and no
Cy Young awards. Furthermore, his best season was at age 35. This may be
a case of too little too late.
John Smoltz
Age 36
HOFM 80
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
Smoltz has the benefit of being the number three starter on the outstanding
Braves' teams of the 1990s. His conversion to closer will make it difficult
for Smoltz to achieve 200 wins. He has one Cy Young Award, but only achieved
a fair number of Cy Young votes in one other season. His strikeout totals
are high, but still far from Hall of Fame levels.
Larry Walker
Age 36
HOFM 93
Status: Eventual Hall of Famer
Similar to Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker's most productive seasons were shortened
by injuries. During the four seasons in which he hit over .350, only on two
occasions did he have more than 450 at-bats. The injuries will prevent him
from reaching 500 home runs or 2,500 hits. Many voters will punish him for
the Coors Field factor. However, there are two main differences between Martinez
and Walker. First, Walker possesses five Gold Gloves. The second difference
is that Walker's numbers are still impressive despite the injuries. Walker
batted .350 or above four times, a feat Martinez accomplished once. In addition,
the limited at-bats did not lessen Walker's power numbers, producing four
seasons with 36 or more home runs and one home run title.
Robbie Alomar
Age 35
HOFM 165
Status First Ballot Hall of Famer
Alomar has more Gold Gloves than Ryne Sandberg, a lifetime .300 batting average,
and over 1,000 RBIs. He will notch 3,000 hits, 500 doubles and 500 stolen
bases. He is the best second baseman of his generation and will easily enter
Cooperstown on the first ballot.
Jeff Bagwell
Age 35
HOFM 134
Status: First Ballot Hall of Famer
Bagwell's career numbers will be outstanding. He will easily surpass 500
home runs and will near 3,000 hits and 2,000 RBIs. He is already among the
career leaders in several categories including, on-base percentage and extra
base hits. Bagwell also has a nice collection of hardware including a Gold
Glove, MVP, and Rookie of the Year.
Trevor Hoffman
Age 35
HOFM 83
Status: Eventual Hall of Famer
Dennis Eckersley and Lee Smith will serve as the litmus test for Trevor Hoffman
and Mariano Rivera. Hoffman will finish ahead of Dennis Eckersley on the
all-time save list and is young enough to make a run at the all-time save
record. Despite pitching for some awful Padre teams, Hoffman has a six-year
run of finishing in the top three among season save leaders. He was almost
unhittable during the Padres' World Series run of 1998. Hoffman may need
to wait until the voters determine to how to judge relievers, but he will
have a plaque in Cooperstown.
Frank 'The Big Hurt' Thomas
Age 35
HOFM 168
Status: First Ballot Hall of Famer
Although Thomas missed most of last year, his numbers are already solid enough
to guarantee him a spot in Cooperstown. He owns two MVP awards and twice
led the White Sox to a division title. Thomas' season totals are remarkably
consistent, despite two years of dropped productivity.
Mo Vaughn
Age 35
HOFM 80
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
The Hall has never looked kindly on players whose numbers drop significantly
after only five years of solid productivity. His injury plagued 1999 and
2001 campaigns will prevent him from achieving impressive career totals.
His batting average continues to plummet below .300 and it is doubtful that
he will reach 400 home runs. Nagging injuries will mostly likely limit his
playing time in 2002 and beyond.
Mike Mussina
Age 34
HOFM 83
Status: Too Early
Mussina may achieve several spectacular seasons with the run support and
solid defense provided by his Yankee teammates. This season could be the
breakout season that confirms his Hall of Fame Status. Mussina's win total
is low, but he played for several bad Oriole teams. He has always finished
strong in Cy Young voting and spent several seasons among the league leaders
in ERA, wins, strikeouts, and winning percentage. Mussina's .641 winning
percentage ranks him higher than Jim Palmer, Greg Maddux, and Juan Marachial
on the all-time list.
Mike Piazza
Age 34
HOFM 131
Status: First Ballot Hall of Famer
Piazza will not reach 500 home runs, but his offensive numbers are already
impressive. His career average is higher than Joe DiMaggio's. In addition,
Piazza will own every offensive record for a catcher by the time he retires.
His numbers are impressive enough for a first baseman or outfielder, but
achieving these numbers as a catcher only adds to his legend.
Gary Sheffield
Age 34
HOFM 82
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
If there was a Hall of Fame for being a sourpuss, Sheffield would be first
ballot. There is only a 50 percent chance that he will hit 500 home runs
and 1998-2001 is his only stretch of consecutive solid seasons. It will take
Sheffield several seasons to reach 2,000 hits and 3,000 hits is impossible.
Sammy Sosa
Age 34
HOFM 145
Status: First Ballot Hall of Famer
Sosa started late, but has really excelled in recent years. He will reach
500 home runs in 2002 and next to Ken Griffey has the best chance to break
Hank Aaron's home run record. His average continues to climb, completing
two straight .320 seasons. He continues to rank among top in MVP votes and
captured the award in 1998. Unless his production drops off substantially,
he will be a first ballot Hall of Famer.
Bernie Williams
Age 34
HOFM 115.5
Status: Eventual Hall of Famer
Don Mattingly and Gary Carter have shattered the myth that anyone with decent
numbers will enter the Hall if they played in New York. However, Williams'
numbers will surpass Mattingly's. Williams will finish with more than 2,700
hits and could finish with a lifetime average above .300. He has earned several
Gold Gloves and a batting title. His postseason numbers are amazing, although
his World Series numbers are weak. If his current pace continues, this current
Yankee Dynasty could have four representatives in Cooperstown.
Juan Gonzales
Age 33
HOFM 113.5
Status: Eventual Hall of Famer
Gonzales will reach 1500 RBIs and 500 home runs, making him a Hall of Fame
lock. However, his career has been plagued by injuries and outside of home
runs and RBIs and he does not rank among the career leaders in any offensive
category. Gonzales' ability to bounce back from injuries will determine if
his numbers will be impressive enough to enter the Hall on his first attempt.
Ken Griffey, Jr.
Age 33
HOFM: 185
Status: First Ballot Hall of Famer
Griffey's career numbers are so strong that even two injury-plagued campaigns
did not diminish his candidacy. He could hit 700 home runs and will fall
just shy of 3,000 hits and 2,200 RBIs. The only major question surrounding
Griffey is which team will be represented on his Cooperstown plaque.
Mariano Rivera
Age 33
HOFM 90
Status: Too Early
Life Hoffman, Rivera will need to see how the voters handle Eckersley and
Smith. Rivera already has two save titles, and four World Series rings. He
routinely saves 45 to 50 games a year, finishes high in the Cy Young voting
and has a shot at the all-time save record.
Jason Giambi
Age 32
HOFM 65
Status Too Early
If Giambi continues the production similar to the last two years, he is a
first-ballot Hall of Famer. However, his numbers in the years 1995 to 1999
were not Hall of Fame caliber. The Yankee years will be crucial.
Jim Thome
Age 32
HOFM 62
Status: Not a Hall of Famer
Thome could hit 500 home runs and his post-season numbers are impressive.
Unfortunately, in today's power hungry game that is just not enough. Only
twice did he place among the top five home run hitters in the American League.
Thome is still young and can make a late run for the Hall, but like McGriff,
he is too one-dimensional to deserve a plaque.
Chipper Jones
Age 31
HOFM 103
Status: Too Early
Chipper Jones has consistently hit .300 with power, speed and the ability
to drive in runs during the past five years. However, it has only been five
years.
If this production remains, he will be a first ballot Hall of Famer.
Pedro Martinez
Age 31
HOFM 138.5
Status: Too Early
During Pedro's nine-year career, only 4 seasons are Hall of Fame worthy.
His career win and strikeout totals are low. However, he is young enough
to improve his career numbers. The real question facing Pedro is how well
he can recover from his injuries. If he continues to produce solid seasons,
Martinez will be a first ballot Hall of Famer. If his arm problems limit
his starts, he will not be elected to Cooperstown.
Manny Ramirez
Age 31
HOFM 92
Status: Too Early
Manny's RBI numbers are already legendary. This skill combined with his ability
to hit for both average and power virtually assure his presence in Cooperstown.
Ramirez has maintained a consistent level of production for six seasons and
is a lock if he can continue his current pace for at least two more seasons.
Ivan Rodriguez
Age 31
HOFM 118
Status: First Ballot Hall of Famer
Rodriguez has ten Gold Gloves, an MVP award, and a career .304 batting average.
Plus he's only 31 so there is plenty of time for him to pad his already legendary
numbers. Expect Rodriguez to retire with close to 2,500 hits and 400 home
runs.
Nomar Garciaparra
Age 29
HOFM 96
Status: Too Early
Nomar was on a pace to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, until a wrist injury
cut short his 2001 season. If he can bounce back and produce at his pre-2001
levels, Boston fans could see three Hall of Famers at Fenway this season.
Todd Helton
Age 29
HOFM 95
Status Too Early
Helton is off to one of the best starts of any career. His average has yet
to dip below .315 and he has a Gold Glove to his credit. Helton has already
led the league in batting, slugging, doubles, hits, total bases, RBIs and
extra base hits. He's only played three full seasons, but if they are any
indication of Helton's talent, he will have an impressive career.
Derek Jeter
Age 29
HOFM 113
HOF Status: Too Early
Jeter is clearly on a Hall of Fame path. Voters love shortstops on perennial
pennant winners such as Rizzuto and Reese. His numbers are already comparable
to both and his career average is an amazing .320.
Vladimir Guerrero
Age 27
HOFM 80
Status: Too Early
It's impossible to judge Hall of Fame candidacy on four seasons, but Guerrero's
early work looks promising. Each of his four full seasons are been amazing
and he could easily be the first player named "Vladimir" to enter the Hall
of Fame.
Alex 'A-Rod' Rodriguez
Age 27
HOFM 132
Status Too Early
If Rodriguez retires tomorrow, he hasn't sustained production long enough
to warrant a Hall of Fame plaque. However, at his current pace, he will reach
600 home runs and own every offensive record for a shortstop.
