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Part 3 - The Lists
The
True Hall of Famers - The Five Levels of Greatness
The
Hall of Fame Pitchers - The Four Categories of Excellence
The
20 Best Careers at Each Position
The
Hall of Famers Who Do Not Have HOF Numbers
The
Position Players with HOF Numbers – Not Yet in the Hall
The
Pitchers with HOF Numbers – Not Yet in the Hall
The
144 Best Players of the Modern Era (1920 to Present)
The
Complete CAWS Ranking for Position Players
The
Complete CAWS Ranking for Pitchers
The True Hall of Famers - The Five Levels of Greatness
Michael
Hoban, Ph.D.
As
mentioned earlier, after the 2015 election, there were one hundred
eighty-nine (189) 20th century major league players
in the Hall of Fame - those whose careers were primarily from 1901 to the
present. Of these, one hundred thirty (130) were position
players
and fifty-nine
(59) were pitchers. The CAWS CAREER GAUGE suggests that sixty-four (64) of these players do
NOT have the career numbers to justify their being in the Hall (47 position
players and 17 pitchers).
Of course, we all
realize that there are a number of other baseball people who are in the Hall of
Fame who never played major
league baseball.
But let’s face it, when the
average fan thinks of “Hall of Famers” he/she does not think of executives or
managers or umpires. Fans almost always associate the term with
those great major league players who played the game in an outstanding fashion.
That is why I think it
is a worthwhile exercise to try to give appropriate recognition to those
players who really did
distinguish themselves by their outstanding performance on the playing field in
the major leagues. So, I will do that
here by defining “levels of greatness.”
According to the CAWS CAREER GAUGE, there are 167 players who did achieve Hall of Fame career numbers in the major leagues
during the 20th century (since 1901) - 116 position players and 51
pitchers.
Of these players, 32
position players (29 from the modern era and 3 from the deadball era) are not yet in the Hall of Fame.
Likewise, 9 pitchers (7 from the modern era and 2 from the
deadball era) are not yet in
Cooperstown. Of course, some of these players (like Derek
Jeter) have not yet been eligible.
The Five Levels of Hall of Famers
– Position Players
The CAWS CAREER GAUGE has separated those 20th
century players who have Hall of Fame numbers into five levels depending on their CAWS score (that is, according to
their career numbers). The lists of
players will include those who are in the Hall of Fame and those who have the
numbers but are not yet inducted.
For example, we will
see that Hank Aaron, Mike Schmidt and Willie McCovey were all great players who
had Hall of Fame numbers during their careers.
But Hank Aaron’s
career numbers designate him as a Level 1 player while Mike Schmidt had a Level 2 career and Willie
McCovey a Level 3 career.
Here are the five
levels of major league position players (who actually posted HOF numbers) and
the number of players in each level – a total of 116 players. Remember that some of these players are not
yet in the Hall.
Level 1
– CAWS score > 400 = 13
players
Level 2
– CAWS score > 330 = 18
Level 3
– CAWS score > 300 = 28
Level 4
– CAWS score > 280 = 29
Level 5
– CAWS score < 280 = 28
As noted above, there
are one hundred eighteen (116) 20th century position players who actually
posted HOF numbers during their major league careers. Of these, eighty-two (82) are actually in the
Hall of Fame and nineteen (20) are not yet eligible or currently on the ballot (2015). Fourteen (14) of these 116 players have been
snubbed for election so far. Of course,
this number includes Pete Rose and Joe Jackson who have been banned from consideration
for the Hall of Fame as well as those players who have been tarnished by
the “steroids label.”
Here are the Level 1 and Level 2 position
players. These are the thirty-one (31)
major league players who had the best career numbers in the 20th
century. I think it is fair to say that
there are few surprises on these two lists.
Level 1 -
Players with a CAWS score > 400
Since 1901, there have
been only thirteen (13) position players who attained a CAWS career score of 400 or better. These are the true legends of the game.
Their career numbers are better than any other position players. Here they are.
Bold
= Hall of Famer
CV =
Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)
CAWS =
Career Assessment/Win Shares
= CV +
.25(CWS – CV)
* =
deadball era
CWS CV
CAWS
1. Babe Ruth
RF 756 460 534
2.
Barry Bonds LF 707 427 497
3. Ty Cobb*
CF 722 419 495
4. Honus Wagner* SS 655 422 480
5. Willie Mays CF 642 389 452
6. Tris Speaker* CF 630 388 449
7. Mickey Mantle CF 565 399 441
8. Stan Musial LF 604 378 435
9. Ted Williams LF 555 394 434
10. Hank Aaron RF 643 356 428
11. Eddie
Collins* 2B 574 376 426
12. Rogers
Hornsby 2B 502 381 411
13. Lou Gehrig 1B 489 384 410
The CCG suggests
that these thirteen players posted better career numbers than any other major
league position players of the 20th century. And, of course, for serious baseball fans,
most of these are “household names.”
Because of the
allegations of steroids use, I am sure that there will be those fans who will
be upset that Barry Bonds’ career numbers put him just behind the Babe on this
list. But please remember that this list
is just about his numbers (whether he earned those numbers fairly is another
question).
As you can see, four
of the legends from the list above played predominantly during the deadball era
(1901 to 1919): Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, Tris Speaker and Eddie Collins. And how many casual fans have even heard of
Eddie Collins - who is arguably the best second baseman of the century?
This ranking places
the great career of Honus Wagner in proper perspective and shows just how
special a player he was. Did he really
have better career numbers than Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle? That is hard to believe but the numbers do
not lie.
Look at how close
the CAWS score is for Stan Musial (435) and Ted Williams (434). And how relatively close for Willie Mays
(452) and Mickey Mantle (441).
Nine of the thirteen
legends were outfielders while two were second basemen and one each was a
shortstop and a first baseman. There are
no catchers or third basemen among these players.
Of the Level 1
players, twelve are in the Hall of Fame and only Barry Bonds is not yet there.
Level 2 - Players with a CAWS score > 330 &
<400
CWS CV
CAWS
14. Joe Morgan 2B 512 341 384
15. Mel Ott
RF 528 335 383
16. Nap Lajoie* 2B 496 334 375
17. Mike Schmidt 3B 467 338 370
18.
Albert Pujols 1B 429 347 368
19. Alex Rodriguez SS 480 330 368
20. Frank Robinson RF 519 316 367
21. Pete Rose
LF 547 307 367
22. Rickey Henderson LF 535 308 365
23. Eddie Mathews 3B 450 333 362
24. Jimmie Foxx 1B 435 325 353
25. Joe DiMaggio CF 387 325 341
26. Sam Crawford* RF 446 303 339
27. Carl
Yastrzemski LF 488 286 337
28. Gary Sheffield LF 430 305 336
29. Paul Waner RF 423 304 334
30. Reggie
Jackson RF 444 296 333
31. George Brett 3B 432 296 330
There are eighteen
(18) superstars in Level 2: ten are outfielders, three are third basemen, two
each are first basemen and second basemen and one is a shortstop. There were no third basemen in Level 1 but
there are three here. No catcher has
career numbers that would put him in Level 1 or 2.
As you might expect,
everyone on this list who has been eligible has been elected to the Hall of
Fame.
Note that three
recent players are in this group: Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols and Gary
Sheffield. Gary Sheffield??? ARod and
Pujols did not surprise me at all. But
Sheffield’s career numbers ranking him this high did come as a surprise.
But that is one of
the advantages of this type of research – once in a while a genuine surprise
comes along. Also note that Sheffield
has 430 career win shares. Every major leaguer with 400 or more win
shares (who was eligible) had been elected to the Hall of Fame (prior to
players with a perceived “steroids problem” becoming eligible).
Adjusting for Military Service
You will note that
Joe DiMaggio is in Level 2 at #25. And some fans may be surprised that he is
not a Level 1 player. As most fans know,
Joe D had a relatively short career of only thirteen seasons and this is a
major reason why his career numbers do not rank him higher. He lost seasons to military service and to
early retirement due to a foot problem.
DiMaggio lost three
playing seasons (1943-45) in the prime of his career to military service in
World War II. And so, some fans may
speculate as to what his career might have looked like if he did not lose those
years. For example, would he have been a
Level 1 player? Of course, the same
question would apply to some other great player as well such as Ted Williams,
Stan Musial and Willie Mays – to name just a few.
But I thought that I
would use Joe D and Teddy Ballgame as examples as to what would happen if we
“project” (in a reasonable manner) what those missing years would have been
like. And in these two cases, this is
relatively easy to do.
For the two years
prior to his military service, Joe DiMaggio earned the following win
shares: 1941 = 41 and 1942 = 32. On his return from the military, he earned
the following in the next two years:
1946 = 24 and 1947 = 30. If we
average these four seasons, we get 31.75 or 32 win shares. Therefore, it is reasonable to project that
he would have averaged 32 win shares for the three years that he was in the
military. And so his new CAWS line would
look like this.
CWS CV
CAWS
Joe DiMaggio
CF 483 337 374
As you can see, this
adjustment would not put the Yankee Clipper into Level 1 since his CAWS score
would still be less than 400. But it
would move him on the Level 2 list from #25 to #17.
This adjustment is even more dramatic for Ted Williams since he essentially lost five
seasons to military service – three during World War II and two during the
Korean War. As most fans know, Ted flew
a jet fighter in combat.
For the two years
prior to his first military stint, Ted earned the following win shares: 1941 =
42 and 1942 = 46. On his return, he
earned the following: 1946 = 49 and 1947 = 44.
The average is 45.25. So, we
award him 45 win shares for each of the three years during WW II. Similarly, for his time in the Korean War,
1950 = 19 and 1951 = 34 while 1954 = 29 and 1955 = 23. So, we award him 26 win shares for each of
the two seasons he lost there.
Therefore, Ted’s new CAWS line looks like this.
CWS CV
CAWS
Ted Williams
LF 732 433 508
This adjustment
becomes VERY SIGNIFICANT. It moves the Splendid Splinter up from the #9
position on the Level 1 list to #2 – just behind the Babe. And I think it is fair to say that many fans
would tend to agree with this conclusion.
1. Babe Ruth
RF 756 460 534
2. Ted Williams LF 732 433 508
3.
Barry Bonds LF 707 427 497
4. Ty Cobb*
CF 722 419 495
5. Honus Wagner* SS 655 422 480
Here are the Level 3 and Level 4 position
players. There were a total of
thirty-one (31) players in Levels 1 and 2 – the position players with the best
careers of the 20th century.
In Levels 3 and 4, we have the fifty-seven (57) next best careers of the
century – twenty-eight (28) in Level 3 and twenty-nine (29) in Level 4.
Level 3 -
Players with a CAWS score > 300 & <330
Here are the twenty-eight great position players
whose rank for career value in the 20th century is from #32 to #59. They each have a CAWS score of better than
300 but less than 330. This means that
there are only fifty-nine (59) position players since 1901 who achieved a CAWS career
score of 300 or better.
All numbers include the
2014
season
Bold
= Hall of Famer
CV =
Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)
CAWS =
Career Assessment/Win Shares
= CV +
.25(CWS – CV)
* =
deadball era
CWS CV
CAWS
32. Craig Biggio 2B 428 294 328
33. Frank Thomas DH 405 301 327
34. Arky Vaughan SS 356 308 320
35. Wade Boggs 3B 394 291 317
36. Chipper Jones 3B 423 281 317
37. Willie McCovey 1B 408 285 316
CWS CV
CAWS
38. Dick Allen
1B 342 304 314
39. Eddie Murray 1B 437 273 314
40. Cal Ripken Jr SS 427 276 314
41. Robin Yount SS 423 278 314
42. Jeff Bagwell 1B 388 287 312
43. Al Kaline
RF 443 268 312
44. Derek Jeter
SS 415 275 310
45. Ken Griffey Jr CF 403 278 309
46. Johnny Mize 1B 339 296 307
47. Charlie
Gehringer 2B 383 280 306
48. Paul Molitor DH 414 270 306
49. Fred Clarke* LF 400 273 305
50. Duke Snider CF 352 289 305
51. Tim Raines
LF 390 275 304
52. Harmon
Killebrew 1B 374 279 303
53. Billy
Williams LF 374 279 303
54. Roberto
Alomar 2B 375 278 302
55. Miguel Cabrera 1B 324 295 302
56. Luke Appling SS 378 275 301
57. Yogi Berra C 375 276 301
58. Al Simmons LF 375 276 301
59. Jim Thome
1B 392 270 301
The twenty-eight (28)
Level 3 players are interesting for a number of reasons. For one thing, eight of them are not yet in
the Hall of Fame. Of course, some of
these players like Derek Jeter have not yet been eligible.
Level 3 also
contains the first catcher to appear
on the lists: Yogi Berra. Johnny Bench
at a CAWS score of 297 (in Level 4) is fairly close behind. Note also that the first designated hitters with outstanding careers are in Level
3: Frank Thomas and Paul Molitor.
Level 4 contains the
names of the twenty-nine players whose CAWS career score is 280 or better but
less than 300. A score of 280 is the HOF
benchmark for left fielders, right fielders, first basemen and designated
hitters.
Level 5 (the last
level) will include the names of those players at other positions who did not
reach a score of 280 but did reach the benchmark for their respective
positions.
Level 4 - Players with a CAWS score > 280 &
<300
All numbers include the
2014
season
Bold
= Hall of Famer
CV =
Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)
CAWS =
Career Assessment/Win Shares
= CV +
.25(CWS – CV)
* =
deadball era
CWS CV
CAWS
60. Mark McGwire 1B 342 283 298
61. Dave Winfield RF 415 259 298
62. Johnny Bench C 356 277 297
63. Roberto
Clemente RF 377 269 296
64. Manny Ramirez LF 394 263 296
65. Ryne Sandberg 2B 346 278 295
66. Tony Gwynn RF 398 269 294
67. Sherry Magee* LF 354 272 293
68. Zack Wheat* LF 380 264 293
69. George Davis* SS 398 255 291
70. Joe Jackson* LF 294 290 291
71. Joe Cronin SS 333 275 290
72. Rafael Palmeiro 1B 387 257 290
73. Willie
Stargell LF 370 263 290
74. Rod Carew 2B 384 257 289
75. Harry
Heilmann RF 356 267 289
76. Ron Santo
3B 324 275 287
77. Bill Dahlen* SS 394 250 286
78. Goose Goslin LF 355 263 286
79. Mike Piazza
C 325 273 286
80. Frank Baker* 3B 301 280 285
81. Lance Berkman 1B 311 276 285
82. Lou Brock
LF 348 264 285
83. Vladimir Guerrero RF 333 269 285
84. Frankie
Frisch 2B 366 256 284
85. Elmer Flick* RF 291 280 283
86. Gary Carter C 337 263 282
87. Darrell Evans 3B 363 253 281
88. Barry Larkin SS 347 258 280
Keep in mind that all of these players have HOF numbers
according to the strict standards of the CAWS CAREER GAUGE. And
only one hundred sixteen (116) position players in the 20th century
qualify under those standards.
Some observations:
Levels 1 through 4
contain the names of the eight-eight (88) position players (since 1901) with
the highest CAWS scores (280 or better).
But there are one hundred sixteen (116) position players who posted Hall
of Fame numbers during this time frame.
So, who are the other twenty-eight?
We will now look at
Level 5 (the last level) and this list will contain the names of those
twenty-eight players who did not reach a CAWS score of 280 but did post HOF
numbers according to the benchmark for their position.
Level 5 -
Players with HOF Numbers and a CAWS score <280
According to the CAWS CAREER GAUGE, there have been twenty-eight (28) players since 1901
who have posted HOF numbers during their playing careers but who did not
register a CAWS score of 280 or more.
The CAWS benchmark for each position for obvious HOF numbers is as
follows:
1.
Left fielder, right fielder, first baseman and designated
hitter = 280
2.
Center fielder and third baseman = 270
3.
Second baseman = 260
4.
Shortstop and catcher = 250.
The following players
have Hall of Fame numbers according to these benchmarks.
In terms of their
career numbers, some fans might consider these Level 5 players to be borderline
Hall of Famers. And that may be a fair assessment of players like
Jimmy Wynn, Stan Hack, Lou Whitaker and Ted Simmons. But recall that the CCG has identified a total
of only one hundred sixteen (116) 20th
century position players who have HOF numbers – and these twenty-eight players are among this
special group.
All numbers include the
2014
season
Bold
= Hall of Famer
CV =
Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)
CAWS =
Career Assessment/Win Shares
= CV +
.25(CWS – CV)
* =
deadball era
Center Fielders: CAWS
= 270
CWS CV
CAWS
Jimmy Wynn (1963-1977) 305 269 278
Richie Ashburn (1948-1962) 329 257 275
Max Carey* (1910-1929) 351 245 272
Earl Averill (1929-1941) 280 268 271
Jimmy Wynn is in
very good company here with three current Hall of Famers. Yet, when he was eligible for election to the
Hall on the 1983 BBWAA ballot, he got no
votes at all. You will note that for his ten best seasons he averaged almost 27 win
shares per season – a very impressive number and better than any of the
other three center fielders here.
Jimmy Wynn is the
only 20th century center fielder who has HOF numbers and has been
eligible and is NOT in Cooperstown.
Third Basemen: CAWS = 270
Brooks Robinson (1955-1977) 356 247 274
Stan Hack (1932-1947) 316 256 271
Brooks Robinson is
in the Hall primarily because of his glove – and he deserves his spot. Many consider him to be the best fielding
third baseman ever.
Stan Hack is the
only third baseman with HOF numbers who has been eligible and who is not in the
Hall.
Second Basemen:
CAWS = 260
Jeff Kent (1992-2008) 339 252 274
Bobby Grich (1970-1986) 329 253 272
Robinson Cano (2005- ) 263 263 263
Lou Whitaker (1977-1995) 351 232 262
Jeff Kent is presently
on the BBWAA ballot while Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker have been passed over
for the honor and Robinson Cano is still an active player.
This position may be
the strangest of all in that there are eight second basemen in the Hall of Fame
whose numbers are not as good as these three: Nellie Fox, Billy Herman, Bobby
Doerr, Johnny Evers, Joe Gordon, Tony
Lazzeri, Red Schoendienst and Bill Mazeroski (see their numbers in the lists at
the end of the monograph).
Shortstops: CAWS
= 250
CWS CV
CAWS
Ernie Banks (1953-1971) 332 247 268
PeeWee Reese (1940-1958) 314 246 263
Lou Boudreau (1938-1952) 277 255 261
Alan Trammell (1977-1996) 318 238 258
Bobby Wallace* (1894-1918) 345 227 257
Ozzie Smith (1978-1996) 325 226 251
Alan Trammell is the
only shortstop in this group who has so far been snubbed by the BBWAA.
Catchers: CAWS = 250
Carlton Fisk (1969-1993) 368 240 272
Ivan Rodriguez (1991-2011) 345 234 262
Joe Torre (1960-1977) 315 244 262
Ted Simmons (1968-1988) 315 240 259
Mickey Cochrane (1925-1937) 275 250 256
Bill Dickey (1928-1946) 314 235 255
Gabby Hartnett (1922-1941) 325 229 253
Joe Torre and Ted
Simmons both have HOF numbers for a catcher according to the CAWS benchmark but
have been passed over for the Hall of Fame (as players). IRod, of course, is not yet eligible.
Of course, Joe Torre
has been elected to the Hall as a manager.
These five groups
above contain the names of twenty-three (23) additional players who posted Hall
of Fame numbers during their playing careers (since 1901).
The final group of
five position players in Level 5 who have HOF numbers represents a very special
category. Only eleven players in the 20th century managed to post a
CAWS score of 255 while playing in fewer than 1800 games. And
all eleven are in the Hall of Fame. The
CCG suggests that all eleven have HOF numbers.
Here are the five
players (of those eleven) who have not yet been mentioned in Levels 1 to 4
discussed earlier.
Short but Great Career:
CAWS > 255 in Fewer Than 1800 Games
CWS CV
CAWS
Hank Greenberg (1930-1947) 267 262 263
Bill Terry (1923-1936) 278 255 261
Larry Doby (1947-1959) 268 257 260
Jackie Robinson (1947-1956) 257 257 257
Kirby Puckett (1984-1995) 281 247 256
The twenty-eight (28)
players in Level 5 when added to the eighty-eight (88) players from Levels 1
through 4 gives us the 116 position players since 1901 who have
posted HOF numbers according to the CAWS CAREER GAUGE.
Michael Hoban, Ph.D is Professor Emeritus of mathematics at the City University of N.Y. He has been an avid baseball fan for over 60 years and has become a serious baseball analyst, since joining SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) in 1998. He is the author of five baseball books including: DEFINING GREATNESS: A Hall of Fame Handbook (Booklocker, 2012) BASEBALL'S COMPLETE PLAYERS (McFarland: 2000) and FIELDER'S CHOICE (Booklocker: 2003).
