GURU'S DRAFTING HELP (Cheat Sheets and Mock Drafts!)
Be
thorough in your preparation. This means knowing knowing the starting
lineups for every team. This way you won't draft a player who's been
benched, injured, or worse, retired!
Know
what's been going on during the off-season - check out injuries,
rehab and projected starting lineups.
Rank
the List. Sort all of the players by position. I use a
spreadsheet*. Then
rank them by their likely performance this year. Don't rely too heavily
on last years performance. Look for players coming off of injuries
or players who were traded to new teams. Favor young players on their way
up over veterans who have memorable names and diminishing talent.
Likewise, star players are stars because they keep going and going
like the Energizer bunny, so don't make the mistake of skipping a truly GREAT
player just to be trendy.
Jump to
Draft Strategy
Cheat Sheets
PREVIOUS YEARS: MLB 2008 Season data: by team: mlb2008byteam.xls MLB 2007 Season data: mlb2007.xls and by team: mlb2007byteam.xls MLB 2006 Season data: mlb2006.xls MLB 2005 Season data: mlb2005.xls and by team: mlb2005byteam.xls MLB 2004, 2003, 2002, and 2001 Season data (batting, pitching and fielding): mlb2005.xls | mlb2004.xls | mlb2003.xls | mlb2002.xls | mlb2001.zip Batter's Data: bat97.zip | bat98.zip | bat99.zip | bat2000.zip Batters: Years back, the Guru relied on OPS, which is on base average plus slugging average to find talented hitters. The batting data for 1997 and 1998 was sorted using a secret formula (QOP), based on OPS and his likelihood to get at bats. The 1999 data has a new formula (WOPS), replacing QOP, which additionally weights by stolen bases. Looking at 2010, new stats emerge and make for awesome forecasts. Pitcher's Data: pit97.zip | pit98.zip | pit99.zip | pit2000.zip Pitchers: Years, back the Guru relied heavily on two statistics, described below. And, the 1997 and 1998 data sets are sorted using a secret formula (QSO), which brings some sleepers near the top, but that's not to say that they make the safest early round picks. 1999 data doesn't include Quality Starts data, but the Guru ranked the pitchers in order for the draft and provided separate ranks for starters and relievers. 1) QS% - % of games started resulting in a quality start. Pitchers scoring high in this category are the most reliable fantasy point scorers. This stat also leads you to next years sleepers!! Pitchers with high QS% and low IP last year, often become stars the next year. 2) SO% - SO per IP demonstrates a pitchers dominance. Look for relief pitchers with high SO% and lots of Saves or starting pitchers with high SO% and QS%. More data: Guru's Data Archives and other data sources. |
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Draft Strategy
Should
I gamble on players returning from injury? In 2000, Andres
Galarraga returned and batted .302 with 28 dingers and
100 RBI , before his injury he batted .305 with 44 HRs and
141 RBI, so there was a drop off, but he was still valuable. Moises
Alou returned to bat .355 with 30 HRs and 114 RBI pretty good! The
year before the injury he batted .312 with 38 hrs and 124 RBI. As far
as pitchers go, Kerry Wood returned after missing what would have been his
second year. After a very rocky start, he finished with a 4.80 ERA with
132 K's in 137 IP. If you didn't know any better you might think that's pretty
good, but before the injury he was a STUD with a 3.40
ERA and 226 K's in 166.7 IP. So do you take a gamble? Don't
expect miracles, but unless the injury proves to be a disaster as with
Doc Gooden for example, expect reasonably solid numbers from most of
them.
"Points
is points!" I hope the meaning isn't lost in poor grammar because
it's valuable information. You may not be a fan of a certain player
or players of a certain position, but taking the best available point scorer
is usually the way to go.
Look
for Value. This is the exception to the rule "Points is points."
Let's say there are 5 good players at a position and after that the
quality really dwindles. You really need to make sure you grab one
of those players. The difference in the number of points you lose by taking
player number 6 might be worth more than taking the next available point
scorer. Be sure to mark your draft sheet with comments to avoid missing
out on players from key positions.
Finally,
Stick to Your Drafting Strategy. It's easy to get flustered when
other people draft the players you want. And, this is why experienced
drafters have a real advantage. Be methodical, when a player is drafted simply
cross him off of your list. When it's time for your pick take the next
best player at that position. There's no sense in getting emotional
over one or two players, it'll spoil the rest of your picks.
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PAGE 4: Player forecasts!!
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