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HELP (Cheat Sheets and Mock Drafts!)
Be thorough in your preparation. This means
knowing knowing the starting lineups for every team. This way you
won't draft a player who's been benched, injured, or worse, retired!
Know what's been going on during the off-season - check
out injuries, rehab and projected starting lineups.
Rank the List. Sort all of the players by
position. I use a spreadsheet*.
Then rank them by their likely performance this year. Don't
rely too heavily on last years performance. Look for players
coming off of injuries or players who were traded to new teams. Favor
young players on their way up over veterans who have memorable names
and diminishing talent. Likewise, star players are stars because
they keep going and going like the Energizer bunny, so don't make the
mistake of skipping a truly GREAT player just to be trendy.
Jump to Draft Strategy
Forecasts! It's the Guru's own cheat sheet with new stats
especially for fanasty baseball drafts.
2015 Season data: mlb2015.xls
/ More Data
/ mlb2012.xls / mlb2011.xls / mlb2010.xls / mlb2009.xls
2008 Season data by team: mlb2008byteam.xls
and by team: mlb2007byteam.xls
and by team: mlb2005byteam.xls
Batter's Data: bat97.zip | bat98.zip | bat99.zip | bat2000.zip
Batters: Years back, the Guru
relied on OPS, which is on base average plus slugging average to find
talented hitters. The batting data for 1997 and 1998 was sorted using a
secret formula (QOP), based on OPS and his likelihood to get at bats.
The 1999 data has a new formula (WOPS), replacing QOP, which
additionally weights by stolen bases. Looking at 2010, new stats emerge
and make for awesome forecasts.
Pitcher's Data: pit97.zip | pit98.zip | pit99.zip | pit2000.zip
Pitchers: Years, back the Guru
relied heavily on two statistics, described below. And, the 1997 and
1998 data sets are sorted using a secret formula (QSO), which brings
some sleepers near the top, but that's not to say that they make the
safest early round picks. 1999 data doesn't include Quality Starts
data, but the Guru ranked the pitchers in order for the draft
and provided separate ranks for starters and relievers.
1) QS% - % of games started resulting in
a quality start. Pitchers scoring high in this category are the most
reliable fantasy point scorers. This stat also leads you to next years
sleepers!! Pitchers with high QS% and low IP last year, often
become stars the next year.
2) SO% - SO per IP demonstrates a
pitchers dominance. Look for relief pitchers with high SO% and lots of
Saves or starting pitchers with high SO% and QS%.
More data: Guru's Data Archives
and other data sources.
Free Hot Stove news feed!
Either add feed to your my google (yahoo, aol, etc) page or
download free widget to your desktop.
to Date Rookies, Sleepers and Players to Watch
AL Free Agent Tracker
to avoid due to injury - Look for updates as season approaches.
Factoid: The winning
percentage of the team a pitcher pitches for correlates higher with a
pitcher's wins and winning percentage than any of his individual stats.
Should I gamble on players returning from
injury? In 2000, Andres Galarraga returned and batted
.302 with 28 dingers and 100 RBI , before
his injury he batted .305 with 44 HRs and 141 RBI, so there
was a drop off, but he was still valuable. Moises Alou returned to bat
.355 with 30 HRs and 114 RBI pretty good! The year before
the injury he batted .312 with 38 hrs and 124 RBI. As far as
pitchers go, Kerry Wood returned after missing what would have been his
second year. After a very rocky start, he finished with a 4.80 ERA
with 132 K's in 137 IP. If you didn't know any better you might think
that's pretty good, but before the injury he was a STUD with
a 3.40 ERA and 226 K's in 166.7 IP. So do you take
a gamble? Don't expect miracles, but unless the injury proves to be a
disaster as with Doc Gooden for example, expect reasonably solid
numbers from most of them.
"Points is points!" I hope the meaning isn't
lost in poor grammar because it's valuable information. You may
not be a fan of a certain player or players of a certain position, but
taking the best available point scorer is usually the way to go.
Look for Value. This is the exception
to the rule "Points is points." Let's say there are 5 good
players at a position and after that the quality really dwindles.
You really need to make sure you grab one of those players. The
difference in the number of points you lose by taking player number 6
might be worth more than taking the next available point scorer.
Be sure to mark your draft sheet with comments to avoid missing
out on players from key positions.
Finally, Stick to Your Drafting Strategy.
It's easy to get flustered when other people draft the players
you want. And, this is why experienced drafters have a real
advantage. Be methodical, when a player is drafted simply cross him off
of your list. When it's time for your pick take the next best
player at that position. There's no sense in getting emotional
over one or two players, it'll spoil the rest of your picks.
More Fantasy Insider...
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