FREE MLB Player Forecasts,
About the Guru's MLB Player
Projections, Rankings - The spreadsheets below have 6 tabs:
Definitions (descriptions of stats), Demo (batter details),
Batting forecasts, Pitching forecasts, and Cheat Sheets for
batters and pitchers. The names of the forecasted stats have an
"m" in from of them. So, the HR forecast is mHR, etc. Players
with no MLB experience do not have forecasts.
Forecasts are based on data from the last three
years, where recent years count more. Some of last years stats
are included as a reference. Some stats are our own invention
(described below). And, for pitchers, 2 and 3
year forecasts for key stats are included, but take these
with a grain of salt.
For ranking players, the mGURU stat is
the key. Alternatively for batters, usemGURUwt, which
weighs by positional scarcity. mGURU is designed to
weight the players rate of production and expected playing time
to arrive at a best rating. Since forecasting playing time is
difficult (although we are proud of the strength of this
forecast), mGURU is weighted more heavily on rate than
tradition linear weights. This strategy is useful for the goal
of ranking player forecasts for simulation leagues.
mGURU is calibrated to value batters and
pitchers roughly equally, possibly giving a slight edge to
pitchers. It does not consider fielding. For batters, SB's are
not as valuable in real life (or in mGURU) as they are in
rotisserie, so draft accordingly.
mROTO is designed to provide values for
5x5 rotisserie scoring as follows: Batting is Avg, HR, SB, RBI,
R. Pitching is ERA, W, SV, WHIP, Strike outs. mROTOwt weights
values by positional scarcity. Values are meant to be relative
to each other and provide directional guidance. Values resemble
mixed leagues with a $260 budget for 12 teams.
NL players are listed at the top, AL at
the bottom. If you are playing in a mixed league, for batters:
sort by Play (descending), POS (descending), mGuru
(descending); for pitchers sort by Play (descending), POS
(descending), mGURU (descending). In the case of pitchers,
notice that positions were newly defined to distinguish between
them (see below).
Players can also be sorted by rankings.
Rank is overall for batters.lrank is the league
rank among either batters or pitchers. prank is the
positional rank within league for either batters or pitchers.
An overall rank across all players was not made, but it can be
infered using mGURU.
If you prefer not to consider playing time in
the rankings and want to reply soly on rate of production, we
have that too. For batters use wOBA, which is based on
research by Tom Tango.
For Pitchers use mDERA, which is the ERA forecast. It
relies heavily on Voros McCracken's DIPS concept. ERAi
is the indexed to league ERA.
No minor league data was considered, so be
advised that forecasts for rookies tend to be weighted more
heavily towards league averages for players of their positions
and expected playing time than established players. Another
stat Tom Tango developed called Reliability will help you gauge
Looking for sleepers?
Value is S=Sleeper, R=Regular,
and O=Overpriced compared to what others might expect
based on last season. If you want to know how big a
sleeper or how overpriced, use gurud, which is
the difference between forecasted performance and last
year for those keys stats. The higher the number the
bigger value, the lower the number the more overpriced.
Pitchers: DIF is mDERA-ERA
(forecasted era minus last years era). Negative dif is
a value pick, positive is premium. DIF_IP3 is
the change in projected IP 3 years from now minus last
ORIGINAL BATTING STATS
The xGURU and xwOBA for batters
shows expected batting value for someone at that position and
playing time. So if you want to consider valuing SS over OF,
then see how much higher that persons mGURU is above xGURU.
mGURUwt was created to do this weighting for you.
mStarter is predicted playing time,
where Y is Starter; N is Not full time Starter or Inj risk or
Performance Risk; and B is a Bench player with fringe mlb-level
mVORP is Value (runs contributed) Over
Replacement Player. It is similar to WAR, but uses a different
bar for replacement value. For batters this is the wOBA of
non-starters at each position. The formula is
(mwOBA-xwOBA)*mTAP. This is different from mGURU, which further
weights the results against players of similar playing time.
mGURU is also weighted more towards rate of performance, so
times at plate plays less of a factor (although it still
ORIGINAL PITCHING STATS
Creation of pitching positions:
SP=Starters / LP=Long Relief (Swing) / JP=Junk (or Junior)
Starters / EP=Elite Relief Pitchers / DP=Decent RP / BP=Bad RP/
AP=Avoid RP. Time for me to come clean on something. LP might
also stand for "Last to Predict" because I don't know what to
do with these guys (neither do most others, but at least Iadmit
it). I don't have supporting minor league data and LPs are
players in flux. Look for bargains and young talent there.
mSTUFF (Do NOT confuse this with
PECOTA's stuff). Having big STUFF means excellent power and
control. Its our way of measuring upside, especially for young
pitchers. Find hidden future stars! The formula is: 6*mDOM
-2.67*mDERA -3*mCTL -5*mHR9; if mSTUFF<1 then mSTUFF=1;
WRIP - Since hrs allowed are more under
a pitchers control than hits allowed, a stat called wrip
was created to look like whip. Whip is (walks+hits)/ip and Wrip
is (walks+hr*10)/ip. I also like the names because a pitcher
giving up lots of hits gets "whipped", while one giving up lots
of HRs gets "wripped." Agree?
mVORP is Value (runs allowed) Over
Replacement Player at same position. It is similar to WAR, but
uses a different bar for replacement value. It is
(mDERA-xDERA)*mIP. xDERA ranges from 6 for someone who only
starts to 5 for somone never starts. Like WAR, which is based
on FIP instead of ERA, this is based on mDERA, which is much
more like FIP than ERA.
traj indicates the trajectory the
pitcher is heading over the next 3 years.
Several more are borrowed from others, such as:
mCMD (9*bb/ip), mDOM (9*k/ip), mCTL (k/bb), and HR9