FREE MLB Player Forecasts, Rankings
the Guru's MLB Player Projections, Rankings - The spreadsheets below
have 6 tabs: Definitions (descriptions of stats), Demo (batter details),
Batting forecasts, Pitching forecasts, and Cheat Sheets for batters and pitchers.
The names of the forecasted stats have an "m" in from of them. So, the HR
forecast is mHR, etc. Players with no MLB experience do not have forecasts.
Forecasts are based on data from the last three years, where recent years
count more. Some of last years stats are included as a reference. Some stats
are our own invention (described below). And, for pitchers, 2 and 3
year forecasts for key stats are included, but take these with a grain
For ranking players, the mGURU stat is the key. Alternatively for
batters, use mGURUwt, which weighs by positional scarcity.
mGURU is designed to weight the players rate of production and
expected playing time to arrive at a best rating. Since forecasting playing
time is difficult (although we are proud of the strength of this forecast),
mGURU is weighted more heavily on rate than tradition linear weights. This
strategy is useful for the goal of ranking player forecasts for simulation
mGURU is calibrated to value batters and pitchers roughly equally, possibly
giving a slight edge to pitchers. It does not consider fielding. For batters,
SB's are not as valuable in real life (or in mGURU) as they are in rotisserie,
so draft accordingly. Players whose mGURU values are within rough;y 10% of
each other are a statistical dead heat, based on margin of error. Among these
close calls, knowledge of why a player may have missed time last year or
that the player was hurt for a long stretch can lead you to adjusting these
mROTO is designed to provide values for 5x5 rotisserie scoring as
follows: Batting is Avg, HR, SB, RBI, R. Pitching is ERA, W, SV, WHIP, Strike
outs. mROTOwt weights values by positional scarcity. Values are meant to
be relative to each other and provide directional guidance. Values resemble
mixed leagues with a $260 budget for 12 teams. mROTO is NOT as good an indicator
of true player value as mGURU, but it may help you win a league based on
this kind of scoring.
NL players are listed at the top, AL at the bottom. If you are playing
in a mixed league, for batters: sort by Play (descending), POS (descending),
mGuru (descending); for pitchers sort by Play (descending), POS (descending),
mGURU (descending). In the case of pitchers, notice that positions were newly
defined to distinguish between them (see below).
Players can also be sorted by rankings. Rank is overall for batters.
lrank is the league rank among either batters or pitchers. prank
is the positional rank within league for either batters or pitchers. An overall
rank across all players was not made, but it can be infered using mGURU.
If you prefer not to consider playing time in the rankings and want to reply
soly on rate of production, we have that too. For batters use wOBA,
which is based on research by
Tom Tango. For Pitchers
use mDERA, which is the ERA forecast. Alternatively, use ERAi, which
is the indexed era forecast.
No minor league data was considered, so be advised that forecasts for rookies
tend to be weighted more heavily towards league averages for players of their
positions and expected playing time than established players. Another stat
Tom Tango developed called Reliability will help you gauge this.
Looking for sleepers?
Value is S=Sleeper, R=Regular, and O=Overpriced compared to what others
might expect based on last season. If you want to know how big a sleeper
or how overpriced, use gurud, which is the difference between forecasted
performance and last year for those keys stats. The higher the number the
bigger value, the lower the number the more overpriced.
Pitchers: DIF is mDERA-ERA (forecasted era minus last years era).
Negative dif is a value pick, positive is premium. DIF_IP3 is the
change in projected IP 3 years from now minus last year.
ORIGINAL BATTING STATS
The xGURU and xwOBA for batters shows expected batting value
for someone at that position and playing time. So if you want to consider
valuing SS over OF, then see how much higher that persons mGURU is above
xGURU. mGURUwt was created to do this weighting for you.
mStarter is predicted playing time, where Y is Starter; N is Not full
time Starter or Inj risk or Performance Risk; and B is a Bench player with
fringe mlb-level quality forecasted.
mVORP is Value (runs contributed) Over Replacement Player. Replacement
value is the wOBA of non-starters at each position. The formula is
(mwOBA-xwOBA)*mTAP. This is different from mGURU, which further weights the
results against players of similar playing time. mGURU is also weighted more
towards rate of performance, so times at plate plays less of a factor (although
it still matters).
ORIGINAL PITCHING STATS
Creation of pitching positions: SP=Starters / LP=Long Relief (Swing)
/ JP=Junk (or Junior) Starters / EP=Elite Relief Pitchers / DP=Decent RP
/ BP=Bad RP/ AP=Avoid RP. Time for me to come clean on something. LP might
also stand for "Last to Predict" because I don't know what to do with these
guys (neither do most others, but at least Iadmit it). I don't have supporting
minor league data and LPs are players in flux. Look for bargains and young
mSTUFF (Do NOT confuse this with PECOTA's stuff). Having big STUFF
means excellent power and control. Its our way of measuring upside, especially
for young pitchers. Find hidden future stars! The formula is: 6*mDOM -2.67*mDERA
-3*mCTL -5*mHR9; if mSTUFF<1 then mSTUFF=1; mSTUFF=mSTUFF*mSTUFF/10;
Wrip - Since hrs allowed are more under a pitchers control than hits
allowed, a stat called wrip was created to look like whip. Whip is
(walks+hits)/ip and Wrip is (walks+hr*10)/ip. I also like the names because
a pitcher giving up lots of hits gets "whipped", while one giving up lots
of HRs gets "wripped." Agree?
mVORP is Value (runs allowed) Over Replacement Player at same position.
It is (mDERA-xDERA)*mIP. xDERA ranges from 6 for someone who only starts
to 5 for somone never starts. This is different from mGURU, which is weighted
more towards rate of performance (mDERA), so innings pitched play less of
traj indicates the trajectory the pitcher is heading over the next
Several more are borrowed from others, such as: mCMD (bb/ip/9), mDOM (k/ip/9),
mCTL (k/bb), and HR9 (hr/ip/9).