Baseball Player Forecasts, Projections

They're ready! We proudly present our 2010 Forecasts.

The Guru's cheat sheets are now available for everyone. Find sleepers and player rankings by position. Special original stats were designed especially for fantasy league drafting. Enjoy!! (Please tell your friends).  

FREE MLB Player Forecasts About the Guru's MLB Player Projections - The spreadsheets below have 3 tabs: Batting forecasts, Pitching forecasts, and Definitions (descriptions of stats). They can be matched together with PlayerId. Download Spreadsheet:  GURU_mForecast2010.xls Updated as of 11/05/2009. Evaluate past forecasts. Also for 2010, look for forecast updates ALL SEASON! *For Scoresheet (SSL ID's, range, platoon adj, special forecasts): SSL2010.xls is planned for Feb release. $5 buys a beer :) $1 micro payments add up! Notes: Forecasts are based on data from the last three years, where recent years count more. Team and league assignments are based on where they ended last year. Some actual data from last year was included as a reference, with a few of our own stats added for good measure. And, for pitchers, 2 and 3 year forecasts for key stats were included as well. For ranking players, the mGURU stat is the key.  mGURU is designed to weight the players rate of production and expected playing time to arrive at a best rating. Since forecasting playing time is difficult (although we are proud of the strength of this forecast), mGURU is weighted more heavily on rate than tradition linear weights. This strategy is useful for the goal of ranking player forecasts for simulation leagues. mGURU is calibrated to value batters and pitchers roughly equally, possibly giving a slight edge to pitchers. It does not consider fielding. For batters, SB's are not as valuable in real life (or in mGURU) as they are in rotisserie, so draft accordingly. Players whose mGURU values are within 10% of each other are a statistical dead heat, based on margin of error. NL players are listed at the top, AL at the bottom. If you are playing in a mixed league, for batters: sort by Play (descending), POS (descending), mGuru (descending); for pitchers sort by Play (descending), POS (descending), mGURU (descending). In the case of pitchers, notice that positions were newly defined to distinguish between them (see below). Players can also be sorted by rankings. Rank is overall for batters. lrank is the league rank among either batters or pitchers. prank is the positional rank within league for either batters or pitchers. An overall rank across all players was not made, but it can be infered using mGURU. If you prefer not to consider playing time in the rankings and want to reply soly on rate of production, we have that too. For batters use wOBA, which is based on research by Tom Tango. For Pitchers use mDERA, which is the ERA forecast. mDERA relies on components of "dips" as an integral part of the forecast. Alternatively, use ERAi, which is the indexed era forecast. No minor league data was considered, so be advised that forecasts for rookies tend to be weighted more heavily towards league averages for players of their positions and expected playing time than established players. Another stat Tom Tango developed called Reliability will help you gauge this. Looking for sleepers? Batters: gpsd and gurud are the difference between forecasted performance and last years for those keys stats. Positive numbers are value picks, negative are premium picks. Pitchers: DIF is mDERA-ERA (forecasted era minus last years era). Negative dif is a value pick, positive is premium. DIF_IP3 is the change in projected IP 3 years from now minus last year. ORIGINAL BATTING STATS The xGURU stat for batters shows expected batting value for someone at that position and playing time. So if you want to consider valuing SS over OF, then see how much higher that persons mGURU is above xGURU. mStarter is predicted playing time, where Y is Starter; N is Not full time Starter or Inj risk or Performance Risk; and B is a Bench player with fringe mlb-level quality forecasted. ORIGINAL PITCHING STATS Creation of pitching positions: SP=Starters / LP=Long Relief (Swing) / JP=Junk Starters / EP=Elite Relief Pitchers / DP=Decent RP / BP=Bad RP/ AP=Avoid RP. mSTUFF (Do NOT confuse this with PECOTA's stuff). Having big STUFF means excellent power and control. Its our way of measuring upside, especially for young pitchers. Find hidden future stars! The formula is: mDOM*6- 1.333*(mDERA+ mDERA)- 3*mCTL -5*mHR9; if mSTUFF<1 then mSTUFF=1; mSTUFF=mSTUFF*mSTUFF/10; Wrip - Since hrs allowed are more under a pitchers control than hits allowed, a stat called wrip was created to look like whip. Whip is (walks+hits)/ip and Wrip is (walks+hr*10)/ip. I also like the names because a pitching giving up lots of hits gets "whipped", while one giving up lots of HRs gets "wripped." Agree? traj indicates the trajectory the pitcher is heading over the next 3 years. Several more are borrowed from others, such as: mCMD (bb/ip/9), mDOM (k/ip/9), mCTL (k/bb), and HR9 (hr/ip/9).

Forecasts from Past Years Download Spreadsheet:  GURU_mForecast2009.xls Download Spreadsheet:  GURU_mForecast2008.xls Download Spreadsheet:  GURU_mForecast2007.xls Download Spreadsheet:  GURU_mForecast2006.xls Download Spreadsheet:  GURU_mForecast2005.xls Note: The mGPS stat for batters was replaced with wOBA beginning with 2010 forecasts as a result research by Tom Tango. *For Scoresheet (SSL ID's, range, platoon adj, special forecasts):  SSL2009.xls

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