Michael Hoban, Ph.D
Part 2 - The Players
3000 Hits – All Have Hall of Fame Numbers
500 Home Runs – Sammy Sosa, Odd Man Out
300 Win Shares - The New “Rule of Thumb”
“All In” – Starting Pitchers and the Hall of Fame
The 21st Century Hall of Famers
The 2015 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot
300 Win Shares - The New “Rule of Thumb”
Michael Hoban, Ph.D.
When fans talk about who belongs in the Hall of Fame, mention is often made of the three “rules of thumb” that have been around for some time. That is, a player “deserves to be in the Hall of Fame” if he
1. Has 3000 hits or
2. Has 500 home runs or
3. Has 300 wins as a pitcher.
Of course, in reality, there are no such “rules.” But this has become a standard belief among many fans because, in fact, virtually all players who have attained any of these distinctions are in fact in the Hall of Fame – and so, in some sense of the term, these are “guarantees for admission to the Hall.”
Unfortunately, it appears that the steroids era may put an end to the two batting achievements as “rules of thumb” since Mark McGwire (500 home runs) and Rafael Palmeiro (500 home runs and 3000 hits) do not appear to be headed to Cooperstown any time soon. Each of these players, despite having obvious Hall of Fame numbers, has received very little support from the writers in the HOF elections. And Roger Clemens appears to be putting an end to the 300 wins “rule” also.
But we must not allow those players who are considered “PEDS tainted” to confuse the issue.
300 Win Shares for a Pitcher = Hall of Fame Numbers
If we look carefully at the third “rule” – that is, pitchers who attain 300 wins, we find something very interesting. And that is: given what has actually happened in the voting for the Hall of Fame, this particular concept should be replaced at this point in time with the new “rule of thumb” = Any pitcher who earns 300 win shares in his career deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.
In doing the research involved in creating the CAWS CAREER GAUGE, it has become obvious to me that 300 win shares for a pitcher denotes a very special milestone. And it is important to note I am not so much advocating what should happen – as I am pointing out what has in fact already happened.
Consider the following: In the modern era (1920 to present), there have been only thirteen (13) pitchers who have recorded 300 wins - and every one of them (except Clemens) is in the Hall of Fame. Of course, this is not really surprising since winning 300 games is quite an achievement. Here are those pitchers and the number of wins each recorded. For the purposes of this essay, Pete Alexander is not considered to be a modern era pitcher. The first number is games won and the number in parentheses is career win shares.
Pitchers with 300 Wins in the Modern Era (13)
Warren Spahn 363 (412)
Greg Maddux 355 (398)
Roger Clemens 354 (432)
Steve Carlton 329 (366)
Nolan Ryan 324 (334)
Don Sutton 324 (319)
Phil Niekro 318 (374)
Gaylord Perry 314 (369)
Tom Seaver 311 (388)
Tom Glavine 305 (314)
Randy Johnson 303 (326)
Lefty Grove 300 (391)
Early Wynn 300 (309)
It is interesting to note that each of these pitchers has also earned 300 career win shares. Of course, that is not too surprising either since one might expect that any starting pitcher who pitched long enough and well enough to win 300 games should have accumulated at least 300 win shares.
What is surprising however is the following: During the modern era, besides the thirteen pitchers above, there have been only ten (10) other pitchers who have earned 300 career win shares – and every one of them is in the Hall of Fame .
Therefore, what I am saying is that BY THEIR VOTES, the voters are saying that any pitcher who has 300 career win shares DESERVES to be in the Hall of Fame.
Pitchers with 300 Win Shares but not 300 Wins (all are in the Hall of Fame):
Bert Blyleven 339
Robin Roberts 339
Fergie Jenkins 323
Red Ruffing 322
Bob Gibson 317
Eppa Rixey 315
Jim Palmer 312
Ted Lyons 312
Carl Hubbell 305
Dennis Eckersley 301
What we see is that there have been only 23 pitchers who have earned 300 career win shares (in the modern era) and every one of them who has been eligible is in the Hall of Fame except for Roger Clemens. Of course, Clemens would now be in the Hall were it not for the steroids question.
Therefore, what can we conclude from these facts?
Actually, something that is quite significant. What this means is that the voters for the Hall of Fame have already decreed by their votes (whether they know it or not) that 300 win shares for a pitcher virtually guarantees induction into Cooperstown.
So, we have our new “rule of thumb:”
A pitcher who earns 300 career win shares is a virtual lock for the Hall of Fame.
If you do not agree with this conclusion, that is fine. But your argument would be with the voters – not with me. I am just the messenger delivering the news.
Hall of Fame Numbers Without 300 Wins or Win Shares
In pointing out this new “rule of thumb,” it is not my intention to suggest that in order to achieve HOF numbers during a career that a pitcher must earn 300 win shares.
In fact, there are a number of pitchers in the modern era (19) who have not earned that many win shares but who do in fact have career HOF numbers according to the CAWS CAREER GAUGE. That is, they fit into one or more different groups that also define pitching greatness as explained elsewhere in this monograph.
Here are the other modern era starting pitchers who have put up HOF numbers but who do not have 300 career win shares.
A CAWS Score of At Least 230 (10 pitchers)
All of these pitchers except for Mays, Ferrell and Walters are already in Cooperstown. Hopefully, the Veterans Committee will vote each of them in one of these days.
There are a few other pitchers from the modern era who achieved pitching greatness while pitching relatively fewer innings. Here they are
A CAWS Score of 180 with Fewer Than 2400 Innings Pitched (7 pitchers)
All of these pitchers who have been eligible are in the Hall of Fame.
Finally, there are three relief pitchers who have achieved greatness with still fewer innings pitched. Mariano, of course, is already included in the list above.
A CAWS Score of 160 with Fewer Than 1500 Innings Pitched (2 more pitchers)
Of this group, only Bruce Sutter is in the Hall of Fame at present. Mariano appears to be a certain selection – leaving only Lee Smith as the “odd man out.”
According to the CAWS CAREER GAUGE, at the end of the 2017 season, these nineteen (19) pitchers together with the twenty-three (23) mentioned above are the only pitchers from the modern era (since 1920) to have posted Hall of Fame numbers.
Michael Hoban, Ph.D is Professor Emeritus of mathematics at the City University of N.Y. He has been an avid baseball fan for over 60 years and has become a serious baseball analyst, since joining SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) in 1998. He is the author of five baseball books including: DEFINING GREATNESS: A Hall of Fame Handbook (Booklocker, 2012) BASEBALL'S COMPLETE PLAYERS (McFarland: 2000) and FIELDER'S CHOICE (Booklocker: 2003).