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Baseball Analysis  Michael Hoban, Ph.D

Part 2 - The Players
3000 Hits – All Have Hall of Fame Numbers
500 Home Runs – Sammy Sosa, Odd Man Out
300 Win Shares - The New “Rule of Thumb”
“All In” – Starting Pitchers and the Hall of Fame
The 21st Century Hall of Famers
The 2015 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot


300 Win Shares  -  The New “Rule of Thumb”

Michael Hoban, Ph.D.


When fans talk about who belongs in the Hall of Fame, mention is often made of the three “rules of thumb” that have been around for some time.  That is, a player “deserves to be in the Hall of Fame” if he

1.      Has 3000 hits or

2.      Has 500 home runs or

3.      Has 300 wins as a pitcher.

 

Of course, in reality, there are no such “rules.”   But this has become a standard belief among many fans because, in fact, virtually all players who have attained any of these distinctions are in fact in the Hall of Fame.

 

Unfortunately, it appears that the steroids era may put an end to the two batting achievements as “rules of thumb” since Mark McGwire (500 home runs) and Rafael Palmeiro (500 home runs and 3000 hits) do not appear to be headed to Cooperstown any time soon.  Each of these players, despite having obvious Hall of Fame numbers, has received very little support from the writers in the HOF elections.  In fact, Palmeiro is no longer on the BBWAA ballot. 

 

And Roger Clemens appears to be putting an end to the 300 wins “rule” also.

 

Be that as it may, in this essay, I will look at the third “rule” – that is, pitchers who attain 300 wins.  And I will show that, given what has actually happened in the voting for the Hall of Fame, this particular concept should be replaced at this point in time with the new “rule of thumb:” Any pitcher who earns 300 win shares in his career deserves be in the Hall of Fame.

 

 

In doing the research involved in creating the CAWS CAREER GAUGE, it has become obvious to me that 300 win shares for a pitcher denotes a very special milestone.  And it is important to note I am not so much advocating what should happen – as I am pointing out what has in fact already happened.

 

Consider the following:  In the modern era (1920 to present), there have been only thirteen (13) pitchers who have recorded 300 wins - and every one of them who has been eligible is in the Hall of Fame.  Of course, this is not really surprising since winning 300 games is quite an achievement.  Here are those pitchers and the number of wins each recorded.  For the purposes of this essay, Pete Alexander is not considered to be a modern era pitcher.   The first number is games won and the number in parentheses is career win shares.

 

 

 

 

Pitchers with 300 Wins in the Modern Era (13)

 

Warren Spahn             363      (412)

Greg Maddux             355      (398)

Roger Clemens            354      (432)

Steve Carlton              329      (366)

Nolan Ryan                 324      (334)

Don Sutton                 324      (319)

Phil Niekro                  318      (374)

Gaylord Perry             314      (369)

Tom Seaver                 311      (388)

Tom Glavine               305      (314)

Randy Johnson           303      (326)

Lefty Grove                300      (391)

Early Wynn                 300      (309)

 

It is interesting to note that each of these pitchers has also earned 300 career win shares.  Of course, that is not too surprising either since one might expect that any starting pitcher who pitched long enough and well enough to win 300 games should have accumulated at least 300 win shares.

 

 

What is surprising however is the following:  During the modern era, besides the thirteen pitchers above, there have been only ten (10) other pitchers who have earned 300 career win shares – and every one of them is in the Hall of Fame .

 

 

Pitchers with 300 Win Shares but not 300 Wins (all are in the Hall of Fame):

 

Bert Blyleven              339

Robin Roberts             339

Fergie Jenkins             323

Red Ruffing                322

Bob Gibson                 317

Eppa Rixey                 315

Jim Palmer                   312

Ted Lyons                   312

Carl Hubbell                305

Dennis Eckersley        301

 

 

What we see is that there have been only 23 pitchers who have earned 300 career win shares (in the modern era) and every one of them who has been eligible is in the Hall of Fame except for Roger Clemens.  Of course, Clemens would now be in the Hall were it not for the steroids question.

 

Therefore, what can we conclude from these facts? 

 

Actually, something that is quite significant.  What this means is that the voters for the Hall of Fame have already decreed by their votes (whether they know it or not) that 300 win shares for a pitcher virtually guarantees induction into Cooperstown.

 

So, we have our new “rule of thumb:” 

A pitcher who earns 300 career win shares is a virtual lock for the Hall of Fame.

 

If you do not agree with this conclusion, that is fine.  But your argument would be with the voters – not with me.  I am just the messenger delivering the news.

 

 

Hall of Fame Numbers Without 300 Wins or Win Shares

 

In pointing out this new “rule of thumb,” it is not my intention to suggest that in order to achieve HOF numbers during a career that a pitcher must earn 300 win shares.

 

In fact, there are a number of pitchers in the modern era who have not earned that many win shares but who do in fact have career HOF numbers according to the CAWS CAREER GAUGE.  That is, they fit into one or more different groups that also define pitching greatness.

 

Here are the other modern era starting pitchers who have put up HOF numbers but who do not have 300 career win shares. 

 

 

A CAWS Score of At Least 235 (6 pitchers)

 

Bob Feller

Burleigh Grimes

Hal Newhouser

Juan Marichal

Carl Mays

Stan Covaleski

 

All of these pitchers except for Carl Mays are already in Cooperstown.  Hopefully, the Veterans Committee will vote Mays in one of these days.

 

There are a few other pitchers from the modern era who achieved pitching greatness while pitching relatively fewer innings.  Here they are.

 

 

 

 

A CAWS Score of 180 with Fewer Than 2400 Innings Pitched (6 pitchers)

 

Pedro Martinez

Sandy Koufax

Hoyt Wilhelm

Goose Gossage

Roy Halladay

Dizzy Dean

 

All of these pitchers who have been eligible are in the Hall of Fame.  Roy Halladay is the only one who is not yet in Cooperstown.

 

Finally, there are five relief pitchers who have achieved greatness with still fewer innings pitched.

 

 

A CAWS Score of 150 with Fewer Than 1500 Innings Pitched (5 pitchers)

 

Mariano Rivera

Lee Smith

Bruce Sutter

Billy Wagner

Dan Quisenberry

 

Of this group, only Bruce Sutter is in the Hall of Fame at present.  Lee Smith is currently on the Hall of Fame ballot.  In 2015, Smith got only 30.2% of the vote in his thirteenth year on the ballot.  And Mariano and Wagner are not yet eligible.  Only Dan Q has been passed over completely at this time.

 

 

According to the CAWS CAREER GAUGE, at the end of the 2014 season, these seventeen (17) pitchers together with the twenty-three (23) mentioned above are the only pitchers from the modern era to have posted Hall of Fame numbers.



Michael Hoban, Ph.D is Professor Emeritus of mathematics at the City University of N.Y.  He has been an avid baseball fan for over 60 years and has become a serious baseball analyst, since joining SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) in 1998.  He is the author of five baseball books including:  DEFINING GREATNESS: A Hall of Fame Handbook (Booklocker, 2012)   BASEBALL'S COMPLETE PLAYERS (McFarland: 2000) and FIELDER'S CHOICE (Booklocker: 2003). 

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