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Baseball Analysis  Michael Hoban, Ph.D

Part 2 - The Players
3000 Hits – All Have Hall of Fame Numbers
500 Home Runs – Sammy Sosa, Odd Man Out
300 Win Shares - The New “Rule of Thumb”
“All In” – Starting Pitchers and the Hall of Fame
The 21st Century Hall of Famers
The 2015 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot


Players with 3000 Hits – All Have HOF Numbers

Michael Hoban, Ph.D.

There has been a “rule of thumb” in baseball for quite some time that any player who accumulates 3000 hits in his career will be elected to the Hall of Fame.  And the adage seems to hold true since every player who has 3000 hits and has been eligible for the Hall of Fame has been elected (with the exception of Rafael Palmeiro who has been stained by the “steroids scandal”).

 

But does that mean that every such player really has HOF numbers according to the CAWS CAREER GAUGE?  Well, yes, it does.

 

Since 1901, only one hundred sixteen (116) position players have posted HOF numbers according to the CCG.  During this same time frame, only twenty-seven (27) players accumulated 3000 hits during their careers – Derek Jeter being the latest in 2011.  And, not surprisingly, every one of them has HOF numbers according to the CAWS Gauge.  Here are the twenty-seven players and their CAWS numbers.  The number preceding the player’s name is his rank among all 20th century position players.

 

All numbers include the 2014 season.

Bold  =  Hall of Famer

CWS  =  Career Win Shares

CV      =  Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)

CAWS  =  Career Assessment/Win Shares  =  CV  +  .25(CWS – CV)

 

 

                                                                        CWS               CV               CAWS

 

 3.  Ty Cobb                           CF                   722                  419                  495

 4.  Honus Wagner                SS                    655                  422                  480

 5.  Willie Mays                      CF                   642                  389                  452

 6.  Tris Speaker                    CF                   630                  388                  449

 8.  Stan Musial                      LF                   604                  378                  435

10.  Hank Aaron                    RF                   643                  356                  428                 

11.  Eddie Collins                  2B                   574                  376                  426

16.  Nap Lajoie                      2B                   496                  334                  375

 

21.  Pete Rose                         LF                   547                  307                  367

22.  Rickey Henderson          LF                   535                  308                  365

27.  Carl Yastrzemski           LF                   488                  286                  337

29.  Paul Waner                     RF                   423                  304                  334

31.  George Brett                   3B                   432                  296                  330

32.  Craig Biggio                    2B                   428                  294                  328     

 

 

35.  Wade Boggs                    3B                   394                  291                  317

39.  Eddie Murray                 1B                   437                  273                  314

40.  Cal Ripken Jr                 SS                    427                  276                  314

41.  Robin Yount                   SS                    423                  278                  314

43.  Al Kaline                         RF                   443                  268                  312

44.  Derek Jeter                       SS                    380                  273                  300

48.  Paul Molitor                    DH                  414                  270                  306

61.  Dave Winfield                 RF                   415                  259                  298     

63.  Roberto Clemente          RF                   377                  269                  296

66.  Tony Gwynn                  RF                   398                  269                  294

72.  Rafael Palmeiro                1B                   387                  257                  290

74.  Rod Carew                     2B                   384                  257                  289

82.  Lou Brock                       LF                   348                  264                  285

 

All of these players are in the Hall of Fame except for Pete Rose and Rafael Palmeiro.

 

  1. Pete Rose is not eligible due to his ban for gambling.

 

  1. Rafael Palmeiro has been tarred with the “steroids brush.”  In the 2014 BBWAA election, he failed to get 5% of the vote so he is now no longer on the ballot.

 


Michael Hoban, Ph.D is Professor Emeritus of mathematics at the City University of N.Y.  He has been an avid baseball fan for over 60 years and has become a serious baseball analyst, since joining SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) in 1998.  He is the author of five baseball books including:  DEFINING GREATNESS: A Hall of Fame Handbook (Booklocker, 2012)   BASEBALL'S COMPLETE PLAYERS (McFarland: 2000) and FIELDER'S CHOICE (Booklocker: 2003). 

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