The Baseball Guru - Predicting the Final 2013 MLB Standings by Craig Tomarkin

Let's cut right to the chase. For each team, using my MLB player forecasts, I calculated the expected wOBA and ERA of each team and indexed them to the league average. Each team is assigned a number of wins based on their indexed run differential.

On paper, it looks like Tigers and Nationals will battle for the World Series. Both have exceptional pitching.

First, I only included players who were in the MLB last year. So, if a team gets a boost from rookie performaces, I would have missed it. Likewise, a returning player could make an impact. Related to this, I did not remove players whom are known to be injured (such as A-Rod) because I am basing this completely on the computer projections. This means on a subjective basis, the Yankees projection as number one in the AL East is risky, particulalry since their placement at the top relied so heavily on hitting.

Second, fielding was not accounted for.So, this is an area a team can make up some ground.

Third, there's no way to account for trades that happen after the time of this posting. Last year the Dodgers went on an impressive shopping spree late in the season to try to propel them into the play-offs. Even though that wasn't enough, it did change the calculus.

Finally, my batting forecasts are generally more reliable than pitching. I can't say for sure why this is, since I spend so much time thinking about pitchers and trying new approaches. Maybe pitchers are just more volatile and harder to predict. Since my two picks to meet in the World Series happen to both rank as having the best pitching in their leagues, let that be a subtle caution. Any team with weak pitching forecast that has an upward surprise and has decent hitting could be dangerous.

Below, please see the 2013 projected standings. The big shocker is that the Blue Jays look like they will fall short despite agressive spending this off season.

AMERICAN
	TeamID	DIV	WOBA	ERA	W	L	PCT
y	NYA	East	0.331	4.18	86	76	0.533
w	TBA	East	0.311	4.06	84	78	0.516
	BOS	East	0.316	4.33	80	82	0.491
	TOR	East	0.319	4.38	79	83	0.490
	BAL	East	0.310	4.42	76	86	0.472
z	DET	Central	0.327	3.95	90	72	0.557
	CHA	Central	0.316	4.22	82	80	0.504
	CLE	Central	0.317	4.42	78	84	0.483
	KCA	Central	0.312	4.44	77	85	0.473
	MIN	Central	0.312	4.44	77	85	0.473
y	TEX	West	0.324	4.17	85	77	0.523
w	LAA	West	0.326	4.21	84	78	0.521
	OAK	West	0.313	4.16	82	80	0.507
	SEA	West	0.305	4.24	78	84	0.484
	HOU	West	0.302	4.58	72	90	0.444

NATIONAL
	TeamID	DIV	WOBA	ERA	W	L	PCT
z	WAS	East	0.314	3.80	90	72	0.556
w	PHI	East	0.313	3.95	86	76	0.533
	ATL	East	0.314	4.05	85	77	0.522
	NYN	East	0.312	4.42	77	85	0.475
	MIA	East	0.308	4.53	74	88	0.458
y	SLN	Central	0.321	3.97	88	74	0.544
w	CIN	Central	0.322	4.10	86	76	0.529
	MIL	Central	0.326	4.31	82	80	0.509
	CHN	Central	0.307	4.36	77	85	0.474
	PIT	Central	0.311	4.44	76	86	0.472
y	LAN	West	0.313	3.95	86	76	0.533
	SFN	West	0.314	4.07	84	78	0.519
	ARI	West	0.315	4.23	81	81	0.501
	SDN	West	0.311	4.39	77	85	0.477
	COL	West	0.319	4.62	75	87	0.465