Craig
Tomarkin /
History
&
Historic
Teams
Greatest Teams Ever:
Part
I
Part
II
Part
III
Part
IV
Greatest
Non-Champion Teams Ever
THE GREATEST TEAMS OF ALL TIME - PART IV
Only a few objections were made about the previous list of the best 64 teams
of all time. I sense that we are approaching consensus on this exciting endeavor.
Perhaps this is the final list.
Part III of this analysis was based on the following formula, applied to
regular season champions since 1893 (excluding the Federal League champs
of 1914 and 1915):
Regular season winning pct * (runs scored/runs allowed)
I sorted them in descending order, giving us a rank ordered list of teams
by best winning record weighted by indexed margin of victory. If anyone wants
to read Parts I, II and III for more details, and for the wisdom behind the
quest, I posted them at http://baseballguru.com/ctomarkin
To fine-tune the list, Paul Wendt made the suggestion to include postseason
games, thus treating regular season and postseason games equally. This would
certainly make a good tiebreaker between two equal regular season teams.
It also creates a way to award World Series champs and penalize postseason
losers. Thereby, reducing or perhaps eliminating the need to limit the list
of eligible teams to "World Series winners only" for those who believe that
a team must win it all to earn a spot among the elite.
In order to maintain an "apples to apples" comparison, the teams must be
limited to those reaching the post season. Otherwise, a team finishing in
first place, earning a spot in the postseason due to superior play, could
end up with a worse final ranking than that assigned to the team it finished
ahead of during the regular season.
Paul recognized that postseason opposition is above average, furthering the
point about needing to limit the comparable teams to post season teams only.
I took it a baby step further and limited the teams to first place finishers
only, thus eliminating wild card teams since 1995. I did this to balance
the number of teams eligible per year with historic levels. Most of this
nit picking is moot, as variations of the analysis will show that teams not
making the playoffs, were much less likely to earn a spot in the best ever
list. A list of the exceptional non-champion teams will be provided along
with their presumed rank if they had been included.
1893 was chosen as the starting point because it was the first year of modern
rules with the pitchers mound at 60 feet 6 inches. Also, years previous to
1893 were typically dominated by one or two teams, which would skew the results.
Who wants to read that the top ten teams were all in the 1800's?
Another issue is that it is widely agreed that players today are better than
players of past eras. If that is true, how can team from the first decade
of the twentieth century be among the greatest ever? Does some sort of weight
need to be applied, forcing recent teams to sort near the top of the list?
The point is interesting to contemplate, but no attempt was made to apply
this kind of weighting. In this analysis, the greatest teams of all time
are defined as the most dominant ones.
The following formula was applied to regular season champions since 1893
(excluding the Federal League champs of 1914 and 1915):
Combined regular and post season winning pct * (runs scored/runs allowed)
Here is the finely tuned, grand list of the Greatest 64 Teams Ever, using
the complete records including the postseason, for all regular season champions
from 1893 through 2001 as discussed. The column labeled "CHG" indicates whether
adding postseason performances helped or hurt the score.
Rank TEAM LG Year WS Score CHG
1 CHI N 1906 Lost 1.340 -
2 PIT N 1902 N/A 1.305
3 NY A 1939 Won 1.242 +
4 NY A 1927 Won 1.182 +
5 PIT N 1909 Won 1.106 -
6 NY N 1904 N/A 1.083
7 BAL N 1896 N/A 1.081 +
8 NY N 1905 Won 1.080 +
9 STL N 1942 Won 1.076 -
10 STL N 1944 Won 1.069 -
11 CHI N 1907 Won 1.063 +
12 NY A 1998 Won 1.063 +
13 PHI A 1910 Won 1.062 +
14 PHI A 1929 Won 1.022 +
15 BOS N 1897 N/A 1.017 -
16 BOS A 1912 Won 1.012 -
17 NY A 1942 Lost 1.011 -
18 CLE A 1954 Lost 1.010 -
19 BAL N 1895 N/A 0.995 -
20 BAL A 1969 Lost 0.995 -
21 SEA A 2001 DNP 0.993 -
22 CIN N 1919 Won 0.992 +
23 NY A 1937 Won 0.983 +
24 NY A 1932 Won 0.982 +
25 NY A 1936 Won 0.980 +
26 BOS N 1898 N/A 0.972
27 PHI A 1911 Won 0.967 +
28 NY N 1912 Lost 0.960 -
29 BAL A 1970 Won 0.954 +
30 NY A 1953 Won 0.953 -
31 CIN N 1975 Won 0.953 -
32 CLE A 1995 Lost 0.951 -
33 PHI A 1931 Lost 0.944 -
34 PIT N 1901 N/A 0.941
35 BAL N 1894 N/A 0.935 -
36 STL N 1943 Lost 0.932 -
37 BOS A 1903 Won 0.930 +
38 BRO N 1899 N/A 0.925
39 NY A 1961 Won 0.925 +
40 CLE A 1948 Won 0.921 -
41 ATL N 1998 DNP 0.916 -
42 CHI A 1917 Won 0.915 -
43 BRO N 1953 Lost 0.910 -
44 NY A 1938 Won 0.907 +
45 BOS A 1915 Won 0.901 +
46 CHI N 1910 Lost 0.899 -
47 CHI N 1935 Lost 0.892 -
48 NY N 1986 Won 0.891 -
49 CIN N 1976 Won 0.888 +
50 BAL A 1971 Lost 0.888 -
51 CHI N 1908 Won 0.882 +
52 NY A 1928 Won 0.881 +
53 PHI A 1914 Lost 0.879 -
54 LA N 1974 Lost 0.875 -
55 NY A 1947 Won 0.874 -
56 NY A 1941 Won 0.871 +
57 CHI N 1918 Lost 0.868 -
58 BOS A 1946 Lost 0.868 -
59 ATL N 1993 DNP 0.867 -
60 CLE A 1920 Won 0.865 +
61 HOU N 1998 DNP 0.863 -
62 NY A 1923 Won 0.862 +
63 BRO N 1941 Lost 0.861 -
64 NY N 1954 Won 0.861 +
Vindication! In the last installment I mentioned that in creating a set of
the top 16 teams for my simulation game, I chose the 1942 Cardinals over
the 1944 Cardinals, despite the teams reverse ranking in all of the previous
formulas. My reasoning was based on Stan Musial's subjective opinion (being
the key player on both teams) and factoring in the reduced level of competition
during the war years. Supposedly, no formula could capture that truth.
While the new formula still does not factor in the reduced level of competition,
it does capture some of Musial's preference for the World Series champion
team. To my delight (and his), the addition of postseason performance boosted
the 1942 Cardinals ahead of the 1944 team.
More vindication. Based on regular season performance, the 2001 Seattle Mariners
managed to make it to #11 all-time. Using the previous methodology, their
absence from the World Series was not a factor. I asserted that although
based on regular season performances, the 1998 Yankees were ranked behind
the Mariners (18th), they were the better team. I based that opinion on the
feeling that the 1998 Yanks would find a way to beat the 2001 Mariners if
they could play head to head. The list that includes postseason results,
above, proves the Yankees superior.
For the math minded, here is how the revised system works. The 2001 Mariners
were 116-46 with a run scored over runs allowed index of 1.48, giving them
a regular season score of 1.059.
Meanwhile, the 1998 Yankees were 114-48 with a run scored over runs allowed
index of 1.47, giving them a regular season score of 1.035. Under the previous
system those are the final results.
However, a comparison of postseason performances completes the picture. During
the post season, the Yankees were 11-2 with a run-scoring index of 1.82.
This increased their final score to 1.063.
The Mariners by contrast fell apart in the postseason. They were 4-6 with
a run-scoring index of 0.75. This dropped their final score to 0.993.
A simplified comparison of total won-loss records, which include postseason
results, reveals the same assertion: Yankees 125-50, Mariners 120-52.
Also of interest is a list of the best teams by era. For more detail about
the era designations, read my article about it at
http://baseballguru.com/ctomarkin.
Rank TEAM LG Year WS Score CHG
Era 1, 1893: 7 BAL N 1896 N/A 1.081 +
Era 1, 1893: 15 BOS N 1897 N/A 1.017 -
Era 2, 1901: 1 CHI N 1906 Lost 1.34 -
Era 2, 1901: 2 PIT N 1902 N/A 1.305
Era 3, 1920: 3 NY A 1939 Won 1.242 +
Era 3, 1920: 4 NY A 1927 Won 1.182 +
Era 4, 1942: 9 STL N 1942 Won 1.076 -
Era 4, 1942: 10 STL N 1944 Won 1.069 -
Era 4, 1942: 17 NY A 1942 Lost 1.011 -
Era 4, 1942: 18 CLE A 1954 Lost 1.01 -
Era 5, 1961: 20 BAL A 1969 Lost 0.995 -
Era 5, 1961: 29 BAL A 1970 Won 0.954 +
Era 5, 1961: 39 NY A 1961 Won 0.925 +
Era 6, 1973: 31 CIN N 1975 Won 0.953 -
Era 6, 1973: 48 NY N 1986 Won 0.891 -
Era 6, 1973: 49 CIN N 1976 Won 0.888 +
Era 6, 1973: 54 LA N 1974 Lost 0.875 -
Era 7, 1993: 12 NY A 1998 Won 1.063 +
Era 7, 1993: 21 SEA A 2001 DNP 0.993 -
Era 7, 1993: 32 CLE A 1995 Lost 0.951 -
Era 7, 1993: 41 ATL N 1998 DNP 0.916 -
As promised, here are the diamonds in the rough. These are the top 16 teams
among non-first place finishers since 1893. The "BestRank" indicates where
they would conservatively fit in the overall list had the list been expanded
to include all teams since 1893. In this scenario, teams with a "-" indicating
postseason failure, retained their higher regular season score so as not
to penalize them for facing above average competition.
BestRank TEAM LG Year score
6 CHI N 1909 1.107
25 BAL N 1897 0.991
28 BRO N 1942 0.983
34 BAL N 1898 0.965
39 NY A 1954 0.956
51 PHI A 1909 0.921
53 NY N 1908 0.910
54 CHI N 1905 0.907
80 PHI A 1928 0.863
81 OAK A 2001 0.842
82 NY A 1931 0.863
93 CHI A 1915 0.851
96 DET A 1915 0.846
102 BOS A 1949 0.837
105 CLE N 1895 0.836
109 CHI A 1954 0.833
Greatest Teams Ever:
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to Part III
continue
to Greatest Non-Champion Teams Ever
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Craig Tomarkin