The Baseball Guru - New Pitcher Projection Method by Jim Albright

New Pitcher Projection Method

Frankly, I never wanted to do pitcher projections, but I didn't feel I could avoid it if I did the hitter projections from NPB to MLB. I'd never seen pitcher projections done, and I'm still unfamiliar with the workings of the other efforts out there to do such projections of pitchers. I thought I could get away with simply using the inverse of the factors for hitters, and so I tried that. The truth is, it didn't work too well.

I didn't have much of a clue on how to fix the pitching projections for quite some time. The first breakthrough I had was the realization that projecting runs based upon the runs (allowed, scored, or batted in) in one place to the other league when the leagues have such differing effects on the pieces which make up those runs just doesn't work. What I'm trying to say is that average is much less effected by the difference of the leagues than homers are. As a result, an Ichiro will retain much more of his value in the majors from NPB than a power hitter like Hideki Matsui will. If you try to use one run factor for both Hideki Matsui and Ichiro, that truth is lost in the run and RBI projections. If you project the run and RBI figures from how many runs each man projects to produce under a runs created formula, Hideki Matsui's RBI and runs scored will be reduced more than Ichiro's will, as will occur in real life. The same is true for pitchers.

The means for calculating pitching runs came from Bill James' component ERA. I tried to use component ERA on the existing conversions of hits, homers, walks, and homers, and it was quite clear that my conversion factors worked poorly, especially the ones for walks and strikeouts. A major problem, beyond even the fact these particular statistics do not seem to project quite as well as many of the others, was that the factors were based on the hitters that played in both leagues. This subset of hitters had a lot of slow power hitters, and few singles hitters. This created major distortions in the conversion factors.

At that point, the only thing to do was to do a comparison of the performance of pitchers who pitched in both the majors and NPB. I used matched numbers of innings pitched (with a minimum of 0.1 IP) for the pitchers in both settings. What I got from 169 pitchers were 14907.2 matched innings, each pitcher pitching the same number of innings in each league. The results were as follows:

League hits homers walks strikeouts

Japan 14624 1545 5832 10963

Majors 15737 1910 6252 9695

================== ===== ==== ==== =====

Adjustment factors* 1.076 1.236 1.072 0.884

* = Japan to majors
From the runs, I calculated a won-loss percentage using Bill James Pythagorean Theorem, and gave each starter one decision for each 9 innings pitched. As before, for pitchers from 1990 on, I allowed their innings pitched to rise in the projection, as innings pitched in Japan had dropped to levels similar to what one would expect in the majors in seasons as short as those played in Japan. Reliever won/lost totals were left alone, as the way the pitcher is used has such a dramatic effect on won-lost records for relievers that I thought it best not to mess with it. Saves were reduced if a pitcher's ERA rose over 3.00 by a very crude approach. Now I had all the means to try my new adjustment method, and I think it performs much better.

Now, it is time to show you how this method performs so you can decide for yourself. I'll do projections from the last five seasons of the main pitchers imported from Japan in the 1990's (so long as they played at least that many), then put a break, then show their first five seasons in the majors (again, so long as they played that many). After that, I'll make some comment on how I think the projection performed for that pitcher.

**Kazuhisa Ishii**
Year	League	Games	Won	Lost	Saves	Innings	Hits	HR	BB	K	Runs	ER	ERA
1997	Japan	20	9	5	0	129.2	93	7	63	125	52	44	3.05
1998	Japan	31	9	11	0	215.1	192	18	135	256	129	116	4.85
1999	Japan	25	5	9	0	144.0	159	24	91	172	120	111	6.94
2000	Japan	32	10	9	0	200.2	176	22	93	221	108	95	4.26
2001	Japan	29	8	10	0	189.2	168	26	102	177	112	100	4.75
====	========	==	==	==	==	=====	===	===	===	===	===	===	=====
2002	Majors	28	14	10	0	154.0	137	20	106	143	82	73	4.27
2003	Majors	27	9	7	0	147.0	129	16	101	140	72	63	3.86
2004	Majors	31	13	8	0	172.0	155	21	98	99	97	90	4.71

I'd say his projection is quite reasonable. My previous attempt at projecting his record can be found here

**Shingo Takatsu**
Year	League	Games	Won	Lost	Saves	Innings	Hits	HR	BB	K	Runs	ER	ERA
1999	Japan	46	1	1	17	48.0	41	9	10	40	23	20	3.75
2000	Japan	37	0	1	0	37.0	41	6	10	31	24	22	5.35
2001	Japan	50	0	4	14	55.1	61	4	16	40	31	28	4.55
2002	Japan	50	0	2	9	47.0	46	9	14	29	27	24	4.60
2003	Japan	46	2	3	0	43.2	52	10	26	27	41	38	7.83
====	========	==	==	==	==	=====	===	===	===	===	===	===	=====
2004	Majors	59	6	4	19	62.1	40	6	21	50	17	16	2.31

At least in 2004, he dramatically outpitched his projection. It will be interesting to see if he can keep it up. My previous attempt at projecting his record can be found here

**Shigetoshi Hasegawa**
Year	League	Games	Won	Lost	Saves	Innings	Hits	HR	BB	K	Runs	ER	ERA
1992	Japan	26	4	10	0	154.0	185	18	68	95	120	111	6.49
1993	Japan	25	7	11	0	176.2	196	18	64	95	116	105	5.35
1994	Japan	22	8	7	0	138.1	161	13	44	67	72	64	4.16
1995	Japan	24	8	11	0	173.0	199	22	61	89	113	102	5.31
1996	Japan	19	2	8	0	91.1	146	18	53	61	115	110	10.84
====	========	==	==	==	==	=====	===	===	===	===	===	===	=====
1997	Majors	50	3	7	0	116.2	118	14	46	83	60	51	3.93
1998	Majors	61	8	3	5	97.1	86	14	32	73	37	34	3.14
1999	Majors	64	4	6	2	77.0	80	14	34	44	45	42	4.91
2000	Majors	66	10	6	9	95.2	100	11	38	59	43	38	3.57
2001	Majors	46	5	6	0	55.2	52	5	20	41	28	25	4.04

It's a little hard to make the comparisons for him as he was used as a starter in Japan, and as a reliever in the majors. He pitched better than the projection, but I've got to wonder how much of the improvement was due to the change in role.

**Masato Yoshii**
Year	League	Games	Won	Lost	Saves	Innings	Hits	HR	BB	K	Runs	ER	ERA
1993	Japan	24	4	8	0	113.0	134	11	33	73	76	69	5.50
1994	Japan	19	4	6	0	85.2	112	17	35	33	63	57	5.99
1995	Japan	26	9	8	0	153.2	151	19	46	89	80	70	4.10
1996	Japan	27	6	11	0	198.1	237	31	63	160	148	136	6.17
1997	Japan	30	9	10	0	189.1	190	22	61	109	105	93	4.42
====	========	==	==	==	==	=====	===	===	===	===	===	===	=====
1998	Majors	29	6	8	0	171.2	166	22	53	117	79	75	3.93
1999	Majors	31	12	8	0	174.0	168	25	58	105	86	85	4.40
2000	Majors	19	6	15	0	167.1	201	32	53	88	112	109	5.86
2001	Majors	42	4	7	0	113.0	127	18	26	63	65	60	4.78
2002	Majors	31	4	9	0	131.1	143	15	32	74	66	60	4.11

I'd say he pitched a bit better than his projection.

**Kazuhiro Sasaki**
Year	League	Games	Won	Lost	Saves	Innings	Hits	HR	BB	K	Runs	ER	ERA
1995	Japan	50	7	2	33	60.1	36	7	20	76	18	14	2.09
1996	Japan	45	4	3	4	57.0	50	9	21	88	32	28	4.42
1997	Japan	57	3	0	44	70.0	32	9	22	105	17	13	1.67
1998	Japan	59	1	1	52	65.1	41	1	17	82	16	12	1.65
1999	Japan	26	1	1	6	26.1	25	1	8	36	12	10	3.42
====	========	==	==	==	==	=====	===	===	===	===	===	===	=====
2000	Majors	63	2	5	37	62.2	42	10	31	78	25	22	3.16
2001	Majors	69	0	4	45	66.2	48	6	11	62	24	24	3.24
2002	Majors	61	4	5	37	60.2	44	6	20	73	24	17	2.52
2003	Majors	35	1	2	10	33.1	31	2	15	29	17	15	4.05

He wasn't quite as good as he was in the projected seasons, but he was quite valuable his first three years in the majors. My previous attempt at projecting his record can be found here

**Hideo Nomo**
Year	League	Games	Won	Lost	Saves	Innings	Hits	HR	BB	K	Runs	ER	ERA
1990	Japan	33	11	15	0	267.1	224	28	146	316	149	133	4.48
1991	Japan	34	10	18	0	268.1	245	32	171	316	180	164	5.50
1992	Japan	33	10	16	0	239.2	201	20	156	251	141	127	4.77
1993	Japan	35	9	20	0	263.2	270	34	198	304	214	198	6.76
1994	Japan	15	6	6	0	101.0	91	10	82	99	57	51	4.54
====	========	==	==	==	==	=====	===	===	===	===	===	===	=====
1995	Majors	28	13	6	0	191.1	124	5	78	236	63	54	2.54
1996	Majors	33	16	11	0	228.1	180	2	85	234	93	81	3.19
1997	Majors	33	14	12	0	207.1	193	9	92	233	104	98	4.25
1998	Majors	29	6	12	0	157.1	130	4	94	167	88	86	4.92
1999	Majors	28	12	8	0	176.1	173	3	78	161	96	89	4.54

He was better than the projection in the first two years, though the fact he wasn't used as hard may explain it. After that, he was rather similar to the projections. My previous attempt at projecting his record can be found here

**Hideki Irabu**
Year	League	Games	Won	Lost	Saves	Innings	Hits	HR	BB	K	Runs	ER	ERA
1992	Japan	29	0	5	0	80.1	105	3	49	61	68	63	7.06
1993	Japan	34	5	10	0	153.1	168	17	77	176	111	101	5.93
1994	Japan	24	13	7	0	183.1	162	17	89	187	78	66	3.24
1995	Japan	31	14	8	0	221.1	186	12	85	234	91	78	3.17
1996	Japan	27	11	7	0	183.1	145	11	70	184	80	69	3.39
====	========	==	==	==	==	=====	===	===	===	===	===	===	=====
1997	Majors	13	5	4	0	53.1	69	15	20	56	47	42	7.09
1998	Majors	29	13	9	0	173.0	148	27	76	126	78	78	4.06
1999	Majors	32	11	7	0	169.1	180	26	46	133	98	91	4.84
2000	Majors	11	2	5	0	54.2	77	9	14	42	45	44	7.24
2001	Majors	3	0	2	0	16.2	22	3	3	18	9	9	4.86

He didn't pitch as badly as his press from his stay in the majors would indicate. However, according to the projections, he seriously underachieved. I'd say the projection captures an essential fact about Irabu: he had that kind of talent, but his emotional makeup was such that going to a high pressure situation with the Yankees on top of the culture shock was more than he could handle. Therefore, he underachieved. My previous attempt at projecting his record can be found here

**Akinori Otsuka**
Year	League	Games	Won	Lost	Saves	Innings	Hits	HR	BB	K	Runs	ER	ERA
1999	Japan	29	1	4	0	34.2	31	1	13	34	16	14	3.63
2000	Japan	43	1	3	10	46.1	40	4	17	52	22	19	3.69
2001	Japan	55	2	5	15	64.1	52	10	19	84	29	25	3.50
2002	Japan	47	2	1	25	49.0	27	6	4	55	9	6	1.10
2003	Japan	58	1	3	15	49.0	39	6	6	57	16	13	2.39
====	========	==	==	==	==	=====	===	===	===	===	===	===	=====
2004	Majors	73	7	2	2	77.1	56	6	26	87	16	15	1.75

I'd say the projection did well in his case. My previous attempt at projecting his record can be found here