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Part 1 -
Career Assessment
The
Win Shares System
How
to Judge a Career
The
1800/255 Benchmark - Jackie Robinson
The
2400/180 Benchmark - Pedro Martinez and Sandy Koufax
The
1500/150 Benchmark - Mariano Rivera
Part 2 - The Players
3000
Hits – All Have Hall of Fame Numbers
The 1500/150 Benchmark - Mariano Rivera
Michael
Hoban, Ph.D.
“Mariano Rivera is
the best reliever in baseball history.” If I were to
make such a claim, there would surely be fans who would agree with me and many
who would not. And, of course, all would
want to know on what basis I made such a claim.
As we saw in the previous chapter, Mariano has HOF
numbers because he is one of just eight pitchers who have earned a CAWS score
of at least 180 in fewer than 2400 innings pitched. But Mariano is the extraordinary exception,
not the rule.
In trying to establish reasonable benchmarks for Hall of
Fame numbers, I naturally came up against the question: Since a relief pitcher who has never been a
starter will normally pitch many fewer innings than a starting pitcher, how
are you going to determine whether a true relief pitcher has HOF numbers? Obviously, the same standards cannot apply
for a starting pitcher and a relief pitcher.
In wrestling with this question, I looked at the careers
of all the great relief pitchers to try to establish a benchmark that would
recognize the best – but would not be “too easy.” And I believe that I have accomplished this
task.
Consider the following statement. I have found only three
pitchers since 1901 who have achieved a CAWS score of 160 while pitching fewer
than 1500 innings. Here are those
pitchers. (I
should note that Billy Wagner came very close – with a CAWS score of 159 in 903
innings.)
IP CWS CV CAWS
Lee Smith 1289 198 152 164
Bruce Sutter is
already in the Hall and Mariano is a shoo-in when he becomes eligible. Only Lee Smith has been passed-over at this
time.
So, I have established the 1500/160 benchmark as the
standard for relief pitchers to have HOF numbers. As you can see, neither of these other two pitchers
comes anywhere close to what Mariano achieved in his career – even though
Sutter is in the Hall of Fame.
Notice that both Smith and Sutter had a CAWS score of
164. Then note that Mariano has a CAWS
score of 199 – a full thirty-five points ahead of both of them.
And, in case you are wondering about some other relievers,
here are the numbers for some of the best ever.
Note that none of them achieved the 160 CAWS benchmark.
IP CWS CV CAWS
Billy Wagner 903 182 151 159
Dan Quisenberry 1043 157 155 156
John Franco 1246 183 128 142
Mike Marshall 1387 146 139 141
Kent Tekulve 1436 159 135 141
John Hiller 1242 146 136 139
Sparky Lyle 1390 161 132 139
Tom Henke 790 140 130 133
Doug Jones 1128 146 128 133
Jeff Riordan 1132 157 121 130
Jeff Montgomery 869 134 127 129
John Wetteland
765 127 125 126
I should note that Rollie Fingers is in the Hall of Fame
and is generally considered by many to be a “reliever” (as are Hoyt Wilhelm and
Goose Gossage who were discussed in the previous chapter). I feel that a pitcher should be considered
a “reliever” only if he pitches fewer than 1500 innings in his career. In any case, Fingers does not have HOF
numbers by the CCG.
Rollie Fingers 1701 188 144 155
So, you can see why I feel very comfortable in saying that Mariano
Rivera appears to be the best “pure” reliever in baseball history.
Note: Trevor
Hoffman was elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA in 2018 – even though he
does not have the numbers according to the CAWS Career Gauge. The number of “saves” that he accumulated in
his career seemed to impress a sufficient number of voters. He joins Rollie Fingers and the other sixty-one
(61) players (since 1901) who are in the Hall of Fame but do not have the
numbers to be there. See the list of
these players later in this monograph.
